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Old 04-07-2022, 03:21 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
That may be their only hope. Even 500 121 hr FOs are becoming a hot commodity at the ULCCs. If this keeps up, the future career progression may well turn out to be CFI to ULCC to legacy. And the thought of that can only make legacy HR departments grab every regional CA they can get before they are all gone to another legacy - an action which will only increase the steepness of the graveyard spiral…

Yep! only disappointing part is the metering of OO pilots to DL/UA/AA right now which has slowed the hiring just a little bit.
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by PorkyMcFuzz View Post
Yep! only disappointing part is the metering of OO pilots to DL/UA/AA right now which has slowed the hiring just a little bit.
Which is why NK, F9, B6, AS, and G4 are all bleeding pilots to the Big Four. Seems like even a zero TPIC FO with a recent B737 or A320 type is being looked at by the Big Four as a good catch.
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:06 PM
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Can you even predict that a NH at 5400 on the list. Upgrades in 2 years. Maybe by then 3000-3500 on the list by then.. But with a GPI pace of even 80 a month. Would take longer then 2 years to see a GPI interview…?? The main problem is no one knows the number to even crunch the math…
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:07 PM
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I was trying to imagine today where Skywest would fit into all of this flurry of activity with mergers and acquisitions.

If it shrinks to the right size, does it make sense for Delta or American to combine it into one of their WOs? Or visa versa…Does Skywest buy a struggling envoy and just take over all of that flying?
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by TipTanks View Post
I was trying to imagine today where Skywest would fit into all of this flurry of activity with mergers and acquisitions.

If it shrinks to the right size, does it make sense for Delta or American to combine it into one of their WOs? Or visa versa…Does Skywest buy a struggling envoy and just take over all of that flying?
It is a queuing problem. The regional airline industry wide production of CAs is below sustainment level. With CAs being picked up without 1000 TPIC they don’t sit in the left seat long enough to get their replacements qualified. With senior FOs being picked up before they are even upgrade eligible, the problem will only get worse.

Right now the only CAs staying are those who are too senior where they are with too little time until age 65 to make it worthwhile to start over at the bottom of another seniority list, even at a major, and these people will be attrition out of the system shortly. No amount of shoving new FOs in at the bottom is going to fix that. All that does is dilute the available CA flight time over a greater denominator. Nobody gets 1000 hrs of SIC time without sitting next to someone in the left seat for 1000 hours. Unless there is a recession that stops hiring at the majors it is an unsolvable problem.
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:35 PM
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You guys do realize that the goal of all of this is the demise of the regionals, correct?

The goal isn't to be at a regional, or to save a regional, or to figure out how to make it last longer. The goal should be to put an end to the regionals as quickly possible.
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Old 04-07-2022, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by TipTanks View Post
I was trying to imagine today where Skywest would fit into all of this flurry of activity with mergers and acquisitions.

If it shrinks to the right size, does it make sense for Delta or American to combine it into one of their WOs? Or visa versa…Does Skywest buy a struggling envoy and just take over all of that flying?
SkyWest is beholden to AA, DL, UA, AS. I highly doubt Chip and friends would ever allow this place to become exclusive to one brand. After all, we're a contract airline. Diversity is what has fueled our growth previously and is our only survivability moving forward.
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Old 04-07-2022, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by jpso View Post
SkyWest is beholden to AA, DL, UA, AS. I highly doubt Chip and friends would ever allow this place to become exclusive to one brand. After all, we're a contract airline. Diversity is what has fueled our growth previously and is our only survivability moving forward.
So how do you keep your CAs and senior FOs from moving to greener pastures? Because seniority in the majors is damn near everything, and every extra month they spend here gets as many as 200 people ahead of them at a legacy.
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Old 04-07-2022, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
So how do you keep your CAs and senior FOs from moving to greener pastures? Because seniority in the majors is damn near everything, and every extra month they spend here gets as many as 200 people ahead of them at a legacy.
I don't see a way of doing that except longevity at a legacy and that isn't happening in my opinion.
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Old 04-07-2022, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by jpso View Post
I don't see a way of doing that except longevity at a legacy and that isn't happening in my opinion.
Longevity at a legacy earns you maybe a $5k increase in pay annually. A year of seniority allows you to upgrade a year earlier (worth roughly $100k) and the same $5k annually, plus superior bidding/QOL for your entire career.

I know which I would pick…
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