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Old 03-23-2019, 06:18 AM
  #221  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan View Post
FWIW Over on the union forum they’re speculating about being 1000 pilots overstaffed and possibility of a furlough within the next year.
Okay Zap you made me look, there's 5 minutes wasted. Thanks for the reminder of why I stay away from the union forum.

It's clear that the company likes this level of staffing. They could have stopped new hire classes 1000 pilots ago if they wanted, back when you could see hundreds of unused reserves sitting each weekend but they didn't. Even with SWAPAs input on hiring (stop) and input on how to use reserves/OT effectively (stop making junk trips and assigning them to rsv) they continue. In fact, they've gotten so effective at assigning reserves junk and avoiding premium that reserve has become less palatable, even though "overstaffing" persists.

If you just fly your line, you are pretty much unaffected by the over-staffing. It's the high flyers that lack creativity that are the most affected. You just can't bid weekdays, pick up some weekend premium flying and make 150TFP these days. A bunch of people have had their cheese moved and they are very vocal about it.

If you come here I wouldn't worry about a furlough. But don't buy into what you hear about being able to make big money. Plan on making guarantee. Even on reserve, where 10-15 hours of extra used to be a given, the company has figured out how to avoid paying extra, assisted by pilots willing to bid even sub-rig trips straight.

My hope is in the next contract we negotiate based on making guarantee, not the 108TFP number thrown out in the last contract. Along with that we need better protections against reroutes. I'm happy to fly unproductive, low block, rigged trips that you see these days. However, I'm annoyed by being used as an "online reserve". We need to push for "leg change override" in the next contract where there is an expense to touching a lineholders schedule.

Let's focus on real issues (I just scratched the surface), not get sidetracked by furlough FUD.

Last edited by Proximity; 03-23-2019 at 06:32 AM.
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:11 AM
  #222  
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Originally Posted by Proximity View Post
Okay Zap you made me look, there's 5 minutes wasted. Thanks for the reminder of why I stay away from the union forum.

It's clear that the company likes this level of staffing. They could have stopped new hire classes 1000 pilots ago if they wanted, back when you could see hundreds of unused reserves sitting each weekend but they didn't. Even with SWAPAs input on hiring (stop) and input on how to use reserves/OT effectively (stop making junk trips and assigning them to rsv) they continue. In fact, they've gotten so effective at assigning reserves junk and avoiding premium that reserve has become less palatable, even though "overstaffing" persists.

If you just fly your line, you are pretty much unaffected by the over-staffing. It's the high flyers that lack creativity that are the most affected. You just can't bid weekdays, pick up some weekend premium flying and make 150TFP these days. A bunch of people have had their cheese moved and they are very vocal about it.

If you come here I wouldn't worry about a furlough. But don't buy into what you hear about being able to make big money. Plan on making guarantee. Even on reserve, where 10-15 hours of extra used to be a given, the company has figured out how to avoid paying extra, assisted by pilots willing to bid even sub-rig trips straight.

My hope is in the next contract we negotiate based on making guarantee, not the 108TFP number thrown out in the last contract. Along with that we need better protections against reroutes. I'm happy to fly unproductive, low block, rigged trips that you see these days. However, I'm annoyed by being used as an "online reserve". We need to push for "leg change override" in the next contract where there is an expense to touching a lineholders schedule.

Let's focus on real issues (I just scratched the surface), not get sidetracked by furlough FUD.
^^^^^^^^^^^^ This. To. A. T.
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Old 03-23-2019, 07:33 AM
  #223  
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Oh I first to admit that I’m chicken little when it comes to the prospect of furloughs. Hard to shake past experiences. But we are overstaffed and nobody seems to understand why, or why they are continuing to hire. It just something to think about.

Totally agree with budgeting to - if not guarantee - average line values. Don’t plan to pick up extra because competition even for sub-rig, straight time flying is fierce right now. Great idea, by the way, to include a financial disincentive to screw with a line holder’s trip in contract 2020. Hope you included that in the surveys!

Just saying that where there’s smoke there’s fire, so that is another piece of information to consider when choosing where you want to apply during this unprecedented time when many pilots often have choices of which major airline they want to go to work for!
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Old 03-23-2019, 03:18 PM
  #224  
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I think Hawaii is just the first step in expansion, they have stated many times Central America and North America are ripe for expansion. I can see us doing Canada in the next five years. Overstated depends on base, there’s always stuff in mine , might not be premium but reserve days available, 1/2/3 even 4 days at times
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Old 03-23-2019, 03:30 PM
  #225  
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Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan View Post
But we are overstaffed and nobody seems to understand why, or why they are continuing to hire. It just something to think about.
There are people in Dallas that know exactly why. They just aren't telling us. For what it's worth (nothing!) I've heard the 12500 pilots number thrown around since I started here in 2015.

If some guys not getting premium means I don't get JA'ed, well, let's just say I'm ok with that.
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Old 03-23-2019, 04:10 PM
  #226  
Furloughed Again?!
 
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Originally Posted by RckyMtHigh View Post
If some guys not getting premium means I don't get JA'ed, well, let's just say I'm ok with that.

Amen to that!



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Old 03-24-2019, 05:42 AM
  #227  
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A couple years ago, Tom Neelon came and spoke to my new-hire class.

Someone asked Tom point-blank why Southwest was hiring so many pilots. Tom said (and I'm paraphrasing here) that part of the reason was because it saw pilots as a "strategic asset," and that it made sense to lay its hands on as many of the good ones it could before the supply dried up.

Being paranoid, I took this to mean that the company wants to brand so many of us, like cattle. Then, when the economy goes hurtling off a cliff, or oil hits $150 a barrel (or both), the company can do what every other major does and play the furlough card. Then, when things improve, they bring us back. And so on and so forth.

Seen from that point of view, there is an argument to be made for an airline having access to its own herd of pre-screened, pre-vetted pilots.

But that's probably just me being paranoid ...
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Old 03-24-2019, 06:11 AM
  #228  
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http://investors.southwest.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/2017%2010-K%20Final%20Filed%20879.pdf

Check out page 28. Lots of airplanes on order, and I think we almost always exercise options. I’m sure some of these are replacement for some older -700s, but still looks like steady growth ahead.
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Old 03-24-2019, 08:26 AM
  #229  
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Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
A couple years ago, Tom Neelon came and spoke to my new-hire class.

Someone asked Tom point-blank why Southwest was hiring so many pilots. Tom said (and I'm paraphrasing here) that part of the reason was because it saw pilots as a "strategic asset," and that it made sense to lay its hands on as many of the good ones it could before the supply dried up.

Being paranoid, I took this to mean that the company wants to brand so many of us, like cattle. Then, when the economy goes hurtling off a cliff, or oil hits $150 a barrel (or both), the company can do what every other major does and play the furlough card. Then, when things improve, they bring us back. And so on and so forth.

Seen from that point of view, there is an argument to be made for an airline having access to its own herd of pre-screened, pre-vetted pilots.

But that's probably just me being paranoid ...

That really is a paranoid way to look at it. I think what he meant was that they realize pilots are a requirement for growth (an asset to growth) and they see the pending issues in the supply of pilots a few years down the road, so they're strategically front-loading to get ahead of the curve. The more pilots we hire today, the fewer pilots available for our competition (Spirit, UAL, DAL, whoever) to hire from tomorrow. For many, loyalty goes to the first company to offer a class date, and Tom seems to know that.


Oh yeah, and red eyes are coming.
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Old 03-24-2019, 09:24 AM
  #230  
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Originally Posted by RckyMtHigh View Post
There are people in Dallas that know exactly why. They just aren't telling us. For what it's worth (nothing!) I've heard the 12500 pilots number thrown around since I started here in 2015.



If some guys not getting premium means I don't get JA'ed, well, let's just say I'm ok with that.


JA was a problem in need of a technology/contract solution, not more hiring.
The ability to bid double time prior to JA and/or place JA in giveaway with alerts going out to eligible bidders would have cut down quite a bit on involuntary JA. Whether you realize it or not, overstaffing hits everybody on the seniority list in pay and QOL.
We put up with a lot of dumb stuff here, but the ability to be the boss of your own schedule and paycheck makes it all worth it. Now we have a bunch of guys sitting around and trip trade/giveaway is a desert of activity, but yet we still have all the “bad” parts of our contract to deal with. If I am going to be flying like a legacy airline pilot, I want to be treated and paid like one.
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