Worth it to move on?
 

Hey all.

Never thought I would be writing this post. It actually saddens me to do so. In light of the current situation at SWA, given the MAX, the anemic retirements, and the shine coming off the culture apple, I am strongly considering refreshing some applications. (Yes, I contribute to the culture of fun, and do my part).

I have enjoyed my time at SWA very much. The crews have been top-notch, and I respect the ability of management to navigate in conservative waters. That said, in a time of unprecedented prosperity and growth in the industry, we are the domestic giant with a giant boot on our neck. While our fellow pilots at other airlines, ULCC's included, are enjoying vastly superior upgrade times (by multiples) we have actually enjoyed a net negative growth. Yes, it is due to the MAX, but we have not yet realized the impact of this debacle, nor the effort required to recapture market share after it is lost.

If all else were equal, I would stick with the supposed safety of SWA, but that is quickly eroding. The massive retirements at the others provide a level of security from furlough that even SWA could not provide (IMHO). I have about 26 years left in this industry, and would like some folks take on this logic. We are willing to move to be in base, wherever we wind up.

The cost of compounding loss in upgrade times, QOL and $ is more substantial than has really set in on some of our group yet. When things go down hill, the effects tend to compound on each other. As word gets out about SWA, we begin not getting the choicest hires, this further impacts culture and a host of other things that accompany not hiring who you desire.

I am on year 3 pay here, and 39 years old. It is right on the cusp, but the longer this drags on, the more I question my decision. This Management under GK is not going to go outside the box. It has always worked for them, and it will continue to work for them...until it doesn't.

We are headed into a 2020 contract that will be nothing but a mud fight, I fear. Not being a negative-nancy. Hopefully I am wrong, and we knock it out. *cough.

I know that the majority of feedback will be to do what seems best, and go with it. Being the analytical type, I am trying to see if there is an angle that I have not yet considered. i.e. if I am willing to move to ATL for example, is there a credible case for not going to DAL? DFW for AA? IAH for UA? I would move to any of them.

We have one shot at this wave, and it really feels like the SWA surfers just got passed by, while everyone else is Hawaii 5-0. I am grateful to be here, but value my career as we all do.

Considering a M&A event could compound the upgrade 10+ year woes, I do not see any light of redemption here. We will do just fine on perpetual F/O pay, and will be grateful for it...but should one consider a move at my point?

Thanks for the thoughts, hope I have given enough data points for someone to throw some figures around.

Wondering the exact same thing.

The massive retirements are really hard to ignore. Among some other things.

It's got to be something to think about, for sure. The MAX situation has really put a lot of things into perspective. I'm in my 4th year here at SWA, and I've done the comparisons for 4 years now. Is this still the best place for me and my family? Is there a better option out there? I don't think it's a bad move to step back and reevaluate all options.

I decided to stay with SWA this year because I am very happy with how the company has been able to weather the storm in the midst of the MAX grounding. It's still producing profits, and that stability is a big reason why I came here. I'm really hoping some new decisions will be made with the future of the company, for example not putting all the eggs in the basket that depends on Lion Air not having any more issues with the MAX.

We live in a SWA domicile and we aren't moving while our kids are in school, so if I change companies I'll go back to commuting. And that's such a huge QOL knock that it's really a non starter. The company I've looked at the most outside of SWA is FDX. But I've heard their financial numbers are taking a hit from Amazon, and that they've slowed hiring. I don't ever plan on doing the 757 hub turn lifestyle that their junior pilots fly a lot of, and that's where their early upgrades are going. My family isn't from Memphis and isn't moving to Memphis, so there's just a lot going against FDX in my personal situation. I've also really looked at Delta, but I don't think I want to give up my current flexibility and QOL to deal with their version of PBS/commuting. They've got a great financial situation right now, but commuting to fly a 737 on their schedule just doesn't seem like a positive move to me.

I don't think you're making a mistake by looking at all your options, especially right now. You may be "selling low" right now with the current MAX situation in regard to SWA, but if you're unhappy here then maybe it is time to switch things up.

Are you prior military?

Jumping ship before we know the outcome of this next presidential election may not be a good idea.

What happens if the Max is back in the next 6 months?

About to hit two years here and have the same thoughts continuously. Turned down a legacy interview to come here. I'd love to just see SWA make some great strides in the near future. That would be the best case at this point. Hard not to consider other options. If I'm going to do anything, the sooner the better. Ugh...

No decision to make until you have a job offer in hand, and every day you wait is potentially lost seniority. Go interview, and then you can sit down with the family and make the decision once you have one to make.

If I were ten years younger I would sure be trying!

Good luck!

Worth it to move on?
 

WRT the Max, this too shall pass. It is definitely temporary. The problem is, the feds will not say “the max is coming back in x month” because then they are dictating a timeline and we all know that they are mainly concerned with safety (yeah right).
When the max comes back, expect swa to go on a capacity expansion tear. Look at the long lead indicators:
Pilot hiring is spooled up and the schoolhouse has literally knocked the wall down on a 2 year old building to put in more sims.
Denver is doubling in size. This has been announced in the media.
Hawaii is a priority right now and will remain so in the near future.
We are cannibalizing profitable routes to feed the west coast and Hawaii due to lack of aircraft.
I am a glass half empty kind of guy, but when I look at Gary Kelly's strategic plans and the max situation, right now the only thing holding us back is the feds blessing an aircraft program that a large part of the US economy depends on. I think the future is pretty bright at SWA. That said, if I were a 25 year old regional captain, I would be putting my eggs in the United or AA basket. You can’t argue with math.

I’m nearly the same age. A couple years senior. Live in base. Won’t commute. Won’t move. So my choices are SWA, UAL, and F9. No interest in F9 and don’t want to start at the bottom of UAL. According to the myseniority site I’ll retire at SWA at #80 so I’m staying put.

IMO you missed the big wave at DL. You’d still have a good career there, but you’re not gonna crack the top 2-3,000. Prob upgrade quicker though if you choose the 717/220. Pays good, good contract, good management. Best of the big 3.

AA’s only real draw is the seniority suck. Their financials are worse than UAL, and DL. Contract is worse. Management is worse. You’ll get senior quick but that’s the only attraction I can see, unless you live in a AA base.

UAL is turning things around. Not the dumpster fire it used to be. Upgrade is around the 3 year mark if you don’t mind SFO or EWR. Contract and pay pretty close to DL. I’d prob go here if I was looking to move on.

Got a few friends at FDX. They love it. I hate AM’s and redeyes. But boxes don’t complain and cargo is pretty stable. Took a hit with Amazon but they’re not going anywhere. Get paid well and have a pension.

Knew a guy who would’ve been #1 at SWA and quit to go to DL. Lived in LA and we didn’t have a base there yet. Was uncertain about the contract (pre-2016) so left for what he thought was better. He still loves it so that’s what matters.

As far as I’m concerned the Max issue is a temporary setback. Contract 2020 could be a long fight....or not. If they’re smart, they’d agree to SWAPA’s rewrite before DL/UA/AA lock in their new CBA’s (which are likely to have big pay/retirement improvements).

In the end it’s nobody’s choice but yours and your family’s. And like Zap said, you don’t have a choice to make if you don’t apply.

The problem is if you apply and still feel wishywashy and choose to not pull the trigger, you kinda shot yourself in the foot if you should ever decide firmly if you want to leave.

True, but there’s no choice to make if you’re not ever offered a interview, or don’t get a CJO.