Displacement Predictions
 

I thought I’d start my first thread on this topic. Now that we have some initial numbers, what are the guesses on displacements?

Yes, and yes

I’m pretty good at working these types of numbers but I couldn’t even fathom what the September vacancy bid will look like. The only word we can count on being accurate to describe it is “interesting”.

Don't forget they will pay for hotel rooms for displaced.

or relocation.

Well, we know that DEN is gonna boom as we got so many more gates there. Also, aren’t we planning on growing in PHX as AA pulls back?

MDW, I can’t imagine getting any bigger. BWI has a few more gates coming/being finished.

ExTO guys move in the vacancy bids but only end up under the “bid for pay purposes” caveat, isn’t that right?

So if scheduling needs to move 10 line holding folks from X to Y domicile to fly, they need to somehow account for all the ExTO guys who will be caught up in the vacancy bid, probably using the same computer logic as past vacancy bids with “P” coded bidders.

Many P coded bidders took ExTO/VSP. That means my ability to move up in actual bid lines awarded isn’t as great as I thought.

With so much riding on the outcome of the forthcoming vacancy award, I put together a [very] rough calculation, which assumes active (i.e., non-VSP/ExTO) pilot distribution within categories (by seat) will be the same — by percentage — as it is now. I’m aware of the possibility that DEN and PHX may grow and others like MCO may shrink, but, again, I did not factor those variables. Lastly, the current CA:FO ratio is 51.6% to 48.4%. After excluding all ExTOs and confirmed VSPs, the ratio becomes 53.4% to 46.6%. For my calculations, I assumed the company will allow the new ratio to stand. In any case, the unconfirmed VSPs will likely nudge the ratio a little closer to the current distribution.



The figures reflect what the categories might look like if all ExTO and confirmed VSP participants are removed from consideration. I understand Crew Planning will have to consider ExTO participants in the shuffle. However, I did not. Additionally, I did not separate EBG pilots in the OAK base. Finally, the “Outlook” column reflects predicted movement in or out of the category among pilots who remain after September 1st. I chose the word “displace” to demonstrate the fact that, by my predictions, some pilots currently assigned to a base would lose their slots. Of course, voluntary movements could reduce or prevent actual displacements.





Category Now Predicted Outlook

ATL CA: 281 229 No movement

BWI CA: 606 493 Gain 1

DAL CA: 616 506 Displace 21

DEN CA: 520 420 Gain 12

HOU CA: 556 453 Displace 1

LAS CA: 412 334 Gain 4

LAX CA: 149 121 Gain 1

MCO CA: 376 306 Displace 3

MDW CA: 669 543 Gain 2

OAK CA: 400 324 Gain 5

PHX CA: 461 375 No movement



ATL FO: 279 214 Displace 6

BWI FO: 598 451 Gain 6

DAL FO: 582 458 Displace 13

DEN FO: 497 374 Gain 12

HOU FO: 518 386 Gain 19

LAS FO: 350 266 No movement

LAX FO: 144 108 Gain 3

MCO FO: 358 276 Displace 16

MDW FO: 621 473 Displace 8

OAK FO: 370 274 Gain 14

PHX FO: 414 318 Displace 11



Again, these figures represent one possibility. I hope everyone who currently has a VSP bid in the system actually separates (with my congratulations and deepest wishes for health and happiness) and our network gurus find a way to avoid displacements. Most especially, I pray someone somewhere figures out a way to eliminate COVID 19. Good luck to us all!

Thanks Ripper - that’s good info and we’ll see how it matches up soon!

Zero

I predict upgrades