ZapBrannigan

Not out of the woods yet.

CBS News, Aug 8th

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/southw...yoffs-in-2021/


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barabek

Every single passenger airline in this country will furlough sooner or later. Those who think otherwise are living in denial. I'm shocked at how many people I work with refuse to comprehend the seriousness of the situation.

pangolin

The thin and I mean thin Hope is we can get enough early outs and staff adjustment while things recover to avoid them. It’s hope. That’s all.

RckyMtHigh

If I understood what he was saying right, it's that, without more government cheese, double traffic in 2021 is needed to prevent furloughs. That's only back to 50% of pre-virus traffic. I may be optimistic, but I think that's probably do-able.

Lewbronski

I definitely think this is the most serious challenge the industry has ever faced. But, the talk about layoffs has to be viewed within the context of the push right now to get the Congressional votes to support airline relief in CARES2. In that context, it pays to paint a more pessimistic picture. GK's segment in the piece is preceded by this commentary:

"There's a growing push by airline employees, their unions, and even airline executives to include additional federal aid in the next corona virus relief package. Without it, they say tens of thousands of workers could lose their jobs just a month before the presidential election, many of them in swing states."

senecacaptain

the problem is who will these laid off workers vote for? Whose “fault” isit? Trump will be blamed but some groups will blame democrats, giving Trump a win. who is the furloughed airline employee voting for? Biden ? ok, Trump?

it is not crystal clear. right now the democrats are being faulted for failing to compromise. Trump “took action”

he has ?? 100k furloughed airline workers on Oct 1 who may vote for him because democrats dropped the balll. everybody gets a warm meal and a fresh paycheck in November tho.

I think any “extension to the bill” got vaporized when suddenly we no longer have a bill. some have said Congress can “return to the table “ but Trump could give 2 sh***ts for Pelosi.

what HE cannot do is extend Congressional legislation. He cannot send or give more money, however he can stop collections and ease requirements. only Congress can GIVE

pop some popcorn. the legal scholars are already all over cable news on these EOs

Privateer89

Sure. If you believe things will never get better and we will always be at the current 30% of 2019 traffic.....but things will improve. How do we bridge the gap? SWA is playing this the best by respecting employees and giving them options and time. Not threatening to furlough 45% as leverage. SWA will not furlough for 2020 so why would they furlough in January 2021 if a reasonable recovery with a vaccine, treatment, or immunity is possible in order to break even by the summer 2021? If nothing changes from now until 2022, then yes I agree that every airline will furlough with no exceptions.

I believe it’s more is more unreasonable to believe the legacy carriers will voluntarily shrink by 45% because they are too impatient to wait for a recovery. They will if they have to, but they will all be striving to meet that point on the axis where staffing meets the new demand with the most efficiency. Every airline/union/politician is playing a card right now....I don’t think anybody knows how it will unfold.

ZapBrannigan

I think the conventional wisdom is that we will need additional downsizing if traffic doesn't continue to rebound.

The election and CARES2 are wildcards. But there is an additional wildcard. 2021 is the airline's 50th anniversary. I can't help but to wonder if GK would be willing to be the first CEO to furlough on the eve of the airline's 50th?

If the survival of the airline is at stake, I'm sure he would. The question is would he entertain another early retirement program, 3 month EXTOs, part time lines, etc to avoid the stain on the airline's sterling reputation during what should have otherwise been a celebratory year?

I'm betting that he is planning for his retirement. If he could get the airline through this crisis without a involuntary furlough he would cement his place in airline history on the level of Herb. Then he could retire a hero.

I'm generally pretty negative, but in this case I'm trying to remain optimistic that between the election year, the 50th, GK's legacy, and some promising therapeutics... with CARES2 we might actually make it through this.


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Sluggo_63

One quote that struck me was when he was asked (and I'm paraphrasing) "why should the airlines get another bailout when no other industry has?" And Gary answer was "if we don't bail them out, then the money from the last bailout will be wasted." That was incredible to hear and the definition of "throwing good money after bad." Just because you spent a lot of money on something, doesn't mean you need to spend more to make your earlier spending not seem like a waste.

Liberty

Yeah, I noticed that. I hate the idea of income redistribution but that's the world that we live in. If I was going to argue for a piece of the pie, I'd bring a better argument than that. Easy and predictable question to a smart guy so I was surprised by the answer. I guess with all public speaking, if you say a thousand words, you're gonna say ten wrong.