Consolidation, Mergers, & Fleet Types
 

In addition to the 4 largest U.S. airlines (American, Delta, United, & Southwest), we have 10 other carriers fighting primarily for domestic market share: Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country -- and recently Breeze, Avelo, Airbahn. The legacies are going to have to fight to defend territory while dealing with the continued impact on business and international travel due to COVID. The low cost model, while resilient in many ways, is not without its weaknesses. Issues with inflation, labor, oil cost, and so on spell turbulent times ahead.

The 737 has hit its 'MAX' and I would imagine SWA management is looking for additional fleet types eventually -- whether through factory orders or acquiring another airline using, for example, Airbus products.

All that said, what do Southwest pilots believe is going to happen to Southwest Airlines in the coming years -- and why?

I don't see us merging with anyone. However, I'm hopeful that we get to accept foreign currency at some point in the next decade.

I'll play the prognostication game. I suspect it'll ultimately be Spirit.

-Immediately diversifies the fleet and insures against a single AD shutting down the entire airline.

-Eliminates a growing competitor.

-They fly to every sandbar with a runway South of the border.

- Also buying a very young pilot group, which hedges against a pilot shortage

- Not disappointing any customer base by lowering the quality of the product (as would happen with JetBlue for example)

I predict that the integration would result in a cascade of SWA FOs who would be forced to retire as FOs as they are shoved further down the list for another decade of stagnation by young Spirit pilots with superior career expectations.

Sincerely,
Eeyore

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Totally agree. If it’s going to be anyone it’s going to be NK (although I hope for JBA for selfish reasons).

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The same investment group owns Frontier and Spirit, in order for SWA to purchase it’d have to be a bargain and I don’t think the investment group will settle for what SWA would be willing to pay.

This is false. Spirit hasn't been owned by Indigo since 2013. Later that year is when Indigo bought Frontier from Republic.

Hey, I’m only 8 years off with my fake news. Lol, thanks for the correction.

What, no more Hawaiian rumors? There better not be a merger any time soon.

Voting no on any merger.

Unless it’s a staple. In which case I’m a solid yes.