That Was Fast
 

Looks like the pilot shortage is over before it began.

So much for using that as a tool to force wages higher.

"Despite forcefully held opinions by industry groups on both sides, FAA data suggests an ample supply of pilots is in the pipeline. FAA statistics on the number of Airline Transport Pilots (ATPs) over the age of 55 predicts future retirements of roughly 4,200 pilots per year over the next decade. Since 2011, the FAA reports an average of 7,200 new ATP certificates have been issued annually."

I'm guessing a number of those ATPs are to foreign pilots that aren't even legal to work here. I didn't the read the article, so I don't know if it says anything about that.

FAA stats don't break down the number of US (passport/green card) pilots vs. the number of foreign pilots getting certified.

US flight schools have PLENTY of new students...but almost none of them can legally work at US airlines. There is a BIG shortage of flight instructors, because there are so few US residents entering flight schools...

I believe that the vast majority of those ATPs were issued to already first officers at the airlines as part of the new ATP-rule that came into effect on August 2013 which required all Part 121 first officers to hold ATP by that date.

Pilot shortage still exists and will get worse. The day it stops will be the day I stop receiving e-mails every other day from regional airlines to call and schedule an interview (even if I never applied there) not to mention the high signing bonuses....

Let the Feds continue to think there's no shortage. It only helps us, and keeps the RAA and other industry lobbyists from screwing with the 1500 hour rule.

I agree. This is a good thing. ALPA has been saying this all along. There is no shortage. Only a pay shortage. The airlines are going to have to pay up simple as that.

There has NEVER been a pilot shortage at the Legacy carriers. At the regional's and part 135 ops; yes. Also, it is MUCH more of a pay shortage than a pilot shortage.

Most of us have been in this industry long enough to experience at least one pilot staffing swing. I have been through two; 2001 and 2008. There was a rampant hiring approaching both of those and then it dropped of a cliff. I am not expecting another 2001 or 2008 but the current hiring environment will inevitably swing back the other direction like it always does.

Its musical chairs. Keep moving while the music is playing but be ready to sit indefinitely in whatever chair you pick.

The bonus at the regional's are great for a year or two but its not going to look nearly as good if the hiring slows and upgrades start to increase again. Not trying to be pessimistic but I have seen it happen too many times. When the bonuses run out its going to be tough to go from $70K per year do $30K with nothing else in sight.

Link to the article?

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Regionals-See-a-Pilot-Shortage-Pilots-See-a-Scapegoat-228612-1.html

I hope you guys are right and most of these new ATPs are foreign pilots.

There was also a surge of mil pilots getting their ATP before the rules changed. That group of pilots is already in the market, so I don't think we'll see that many coming from mil all at once going fwd from here.

When a Major has 50 or 100 resumes for every slot, thousands of active resumes on-file and each of those resumes is "highly qualified," there is no shortage.

When an interview at a Major is contingent upon traveling Grateful Deadhead-like around the country to job fairs, hangar presentations, career conferences and the like, there is no shortage.

As long as there are X number of ATP/1st class medicals for X-1 pilot seats, there is no definitional shortage.

There is no pilot shortage. There are inflections on the demand curve, which are solved by resources.

From posters here: FedEx and/or UPS, and UAL have said they have plenty of applicants to fill their needs through about 2019, then they have no idea how they will get enough pilots to fill the slots they are forecasting...

What FedEX, UPS, and UAL might not realized though that those same applicants are also Delta, American, and Southwest applicants....

Foreign students stop at multi commercial.
They don't have the ability to get the 1500 hours without the right to work, which they don't have.

I thought it was easy for schools to sponsor them.

Guys please take less than a minute to complete the call to action in favor of the 1500hr rule in your latest ALPA blast mail. There is growing support for lowering this requirement because of the airlines crying shortage. Safety aside, barriers to entry are incredibly helpful in keeping wages up. We all know that when a kid with money or can qualify for a loan they are more than happy to go to work for poverty wages with 500hrs. It takes a little more time and money to get that 1500hrs during which time life starts to happen for people and they start to realize that maybe the ROI isn't worth it without higher wages. People used to become pilots because it was a good career. Those guys are about to retire. The events of 9/11 and 2008 crushed earning potential and 1500 kept many of the more practical applicants in other careers. Only now with wages up will word get out that this may actually be a career worth pursuing again. The problem is the airlines are still feeling the affects of the last 15yrs of damage they did so they want to go right back to lowering the barriers to entry.

This affects our ability to negotiate the contract we deserve. It takes less than a minute to do the call to action. DO IT!

I couldn't care less if there is a shortage, a scarcity, or enough pilots. Pay and working conditions have improved, and that is all that matters.

So participate in the call to action and let's keep it that way

I think this means there is a shortage...

Uh, no.

What it means is there is enough movement that pilots don't feel locked into the first company to offer employment and are willing to take their services elsewhere as downside risk has declined to less than upside benefit.

That does not represent "shortage".

Following NAI model, those "foreign" pilots may soon be flying your routes for new airlines set up under shell corporations on random countries not under US jurisdiction.

We didn't really think it was possible, but... imagine Spirit, but with the company based not in Florida but in a third world country with no aviation oversight and no labor laws. Coming to an airport near you maybe?

That sounds just like Florida to me. No wonder they moved HQ down there.

Just because everyone was THINKING that, doesn't mean anyone had to actually SAY it :)

Well, that's a data point we can all take to the bank.

Funny thing. I had a TWA interview scheduled for February, 2000.

So who has done the call to action for not lowering the 1500hr rule? Get it done! Takes less than a minute

I'm going out on a limb and say no. Since no one responded to your other post.

More ALPA initiatives to save the industry while I starve on a substandard contract two years past amendable? Yeah, let me rush on over and get that done....



Yawn.

I like your style. When ALPA national acts like they give a hoot about our fight at Spirit, I might be inclined to care about their latest boogeyman issue.

The 1500hr rule affects spirit more than other major airlines. If they are able to lower mins to keep the airline staffed it directly affects our ability to get a contract. Those that pay industry standard are able to be more selective thus while erosion of this rule is still very important it's affects won't be immediately seen by their pilot groups.

It takes less than a minute. You guys can not honestly think that lowering barriers to entry is good for the profession's long term compensation. Be ****ed about our lack of a contract all you want just like I am but this issue is important and your effort to help it is minimal compared to the effect of doing nothing

Pay shortage. Lots of pilots come out of the woodwork for the right pay :)

For some it just takes MUP.