Spirit curbs growth plans
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-26/spirit-air-surges-most-in-four-years-after-curbing-growth-plans?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign= headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo


New investor plans in Spirit.com too. No more additional orders. Spirit is slowing down. Rather than pay pilots to retain and attract pilots. They are curbing growth. Almost our our 161 planes coming are NEOs which are options to cancel anyway. Since the NEO program isn’t producing planes at the moment. No more reason to stay or come here. I won’t upgrade anymore. This place will stagnant like Virgin America did. We knew it was coming too. Just something to think about if you’re considering staying or coming here.

No need to buy new airplanes (yet) if merger is on the horizon. Also Virgin wasn't profitable for many years. Not the case here. Double digit growth is still agressive. None of us have a crystal ball so a 3,5,10 year projection is nothing more than a guess. Slowing growth and capacity discipline could very well be smart for profitability and sustainability. No more orders (yet) is not the end of the world.

The earnings call was really good. Lots of positive news. Growth in 2018 is >20%, that is huge. “Slowing” to 10% in 2019 is still massive growth. They really don’t know what they will be doing after 2021, they weren’t specific. Only that the hub/spoke model doesn’t work for them due to lack of available slots and gate spaces. They will probably try to do smaller orders via leases in the future, they don’t plan to stop growing. Still a very healthly margin, around 16%.

Per earnings call they are looking for work rule enhancements to help in recoverability during irrops.

Spirit is a high growth carrier, do not be fooled. Between orders you'll probably see some minor stagnation, blamed on the pilots no doubt.

Maybe they just finish the ****ing contract

Bottom line: there is no guarantee of any upgrade in the near term for a new-hire. It’s actually been that way for a while. Now our Management says they are going to curb growth, which makes it worse. Spirit was a gamble in the past but the Quick upgrade made it worth it. Now it’s just a gamble. If I were job shopping I’d personally avoid going to Spirit. I’d stay at my regional till the legacies call. Even if the legacies have no growth you will still progress due to retirements. Just my $.02

Apparently, you guys are still opening up three new destinations next year though. Two mid-sized US cities and one international, presumably that would be STL and IND +UIO

No different than AirTran in 2006-2008. Any of us looking for work during that time knew the difference between the two places. On one hand, there was a profitable LCC that was a decent operation (but with crappy pay) but had seen it's phenomenal growth slow. Or, you could roll the dice with a tiny LCC (with similarly crappy pay) that was losing money but had investors who wanted to throw airplanes at it. The tiny, clueless LCC with deep-pocketed investors called first for many of us.

Did the masses really expect the 20-25% YoY growth to continue adfinitem?

Also, anyone know what happened to that profitable LCC when the growth slowed and they got big enough to step on a few toes?

They said in the earning call that they are in active negotiations and hope to reach a deal. They wouldn't lie to their shareholders, would they? :cool::(

Why would they finish the contract? Look at the numbers reported. The operation is running fine so no hurry to close the deal with the pilots. If I was running the place i'd be happy with status quo. Wall street agrees with me, the stock popped. Clearly the contract is on the back burner, not an issue that needs attention.

We still plan on growing 18-20% in 2018. I'm patiently waiting for Spring /Summer schedule. We will once again be short-staffed.

Attrition is only going up and less and less people are choosing to come to this dump.

During the call yesterday an investor asked if we are staffed properly, lol. What do they think Bob is going to say?.

Maybe they should ask themselves.......

If an airline has to sue its Pilots to force them to cover open flying, are they properly staffed? Hmmmmmmmm.


Lastly, you say “the operation is running fine”, lol the hell it is. Last I checked May was still 2017 and like 2017, 2018 will have a summer schedule too. Simply wont be enough staff. We can all go above and beyond but math is math......

Exactly, I say the same thing and everyone thinks I’m crazy. This low cost management regime only sees $$$ and if the bottom line still looks good and flights are being covered and applicants keep applying then the company has zero incentive to give two craps about what we deserve.

Well then after this earnings call maybe the medaitor/NMB should do their job

I don't disagree, but the math is the math. It's a business. That's all wall street cares about. We have plenty of "super pilots" here that will run out at a moments notice and cover trips. This is no secret. I actually had a DFW guy tell me the union told him to do it! Another guy from ACY told me his life is based off 125 credit every month. So we are actually staffed properly when you factor in all the "super pilots"! Contract 2020 :rolleyes:

Lol, I know who you’re talking about but no worries, Im at 147 block hours for the year so We cancel each other out, lol

Huh. So strange that a guy would "actually tell you that the union told him to do it".

Here is a quote from the chairman of our union.

"Make no mistake, we MUST and WILL continue to go the extra mile to fully obey the TRO and make every effort to restore the operation. We will continue to pick up open time, accept junior assignments and answer crew scheduling because doing so is in our best interests."

And no, there isn't some super secret squirrel code of say this but do that. The union, our union, meaning you and me, have collectively made a decision to bend over backwards to help the operation in anyway possible. You can argue about the merits of this stance (however I would implore you not to do it on this forum), but the stance is clear.

If you want to retort, consider a PM vs a forum reply.

PS I do agree with your first sentence. To them, we are just cost centers. Machines to be used and abused for maximum profit. Welcome to employment.

Of course the union said that. What choice did they have? But the union didn't tell everyone to stop picking up open time in the first place. That was a result of a pilot group that got sick of "helping out" a company that treats them like garbage. Why did everyone all of a sudden have a change of heart?

There was this big panic about, "We have to get back to the negotiating table!" Well, what did the negotiating table ever bring in the fist place? And what is it producing now?

Look, these *******s are going to have to do something. It isnt 2008, they are absolutely going to F—— themselves come spring & Summer. All the legacies are hiring, our newhires are washing out at an alarming rate and growth for 2018 is 20%?, lol. Good FUKING LUCK

I know, I'm just saying its disingenuous for people to pretend that our members who are following our unions advice to help out are somehow pulling it out of their butt. As a union, that is our current strategy. Helping as much as we can. I happen to agree that it hasn't worked, but the answer isn't to respond to individuals by feigning ignorance of our current stance.

If you think we are on the wrong path, sowing discord amongst our group is hurting more than helping. Go to a union meeting and speak up. We are stronger together than apart, even if you disagree with our strategy. Its better than open infighting. Together we stand, divided we fall. You know, that whole UNION thing.

All I'm saying is the union has given the only guidance it legally can give. What individuals do with their time off is up to them.

Yeh and how did that integration go for those AirTran guys/gals. Can you say not so good

That’s the problem, the mediator is not doing their job and that’s why we are screwed.

Curious what you think the mediator's job is?

To get me my money hoe.

Apparently you have a hard time remaining on topic. The ins/outs of their SLI are not the point of the thread nor of my post. I simply pointed out that the explosive growth rate was bound to be curbed sooner or later, as it has for everyone. We look like AirTran, just a decade later. Always have. And we'll probably meet the same fate eventually, especially if Wall Street gets their way.

So, what's the verdict? Is the 161 -165 airbuses on propert by 2020 still the plan or has that changed?

Airframes remaining the same. They mentioned in the call growth isnt directly related to how many A/C or some BS like that

Growth to an analyst vs pilot means different things. Capacity growth or ASM growth can be dialed up/down by changing type of aircraft taken/returned to lessors, changing schedule frequency, and other factors.

All our growth after 2018 are 320 NEOs only. How well have the NEOs been so far? Unless they get the engine issues fixed. I’ll bet 165 planes becomes 130.

Probably roll them over to Leap orders

Pretty good considering it was an acquisition and not a merger. SWA/SWAPA could have stapled them to the bottom. Getting displaced (especially ATL - Oakland) was probably the only downside of the integrations.

Not sure if the issues have been “fixed” but the NEOs are being dispatched at normal cruising altitudes now.

Only 2 or 3 of the 5 are. Not sure how they have a fix for some but not others. Don't they all have the same problem?

2 of them need new motors because they were making metal. The other 3 got the fix. It's was all in a read file.

So does that mean it’s “problem solved” and airbus can deliver neos with trouble free Pratt motors now.

No they couldn't have stapled. You ever heard of the McCaskill-Bond Act?

I think he knew that and was just trolling. Not possible to be that ignant

Put down the Urban dictionary. The correct word is ignorant.