Upgrade times and PBS
 

Obviously PBS, IF contract is ratified will most likely not be implemented until January of 2019. The wording from the MEC statement says no downgrades or furloughs as a result of PBS implementation.

For current Spirit gents/ladies:

1) What is DOH of current most junior Captain in the system? Do you folks expect upgrade time to increase significantly IF CBA passes?

2) Does the company expect that much of significant scheduling efficiencies, read less bodies, that the Union had to insert no downgrade/furlough language?

Thank you kindly for any info provided.

Very good question. Following.

I think question 2 is a safe assumption for a short amount of time. I would expect at least a reduction of required crews by 20%. Currently we sit at 16 crews per aircraft (I think).

I think 20% is high. Even with PBS and our inefficient route structure I can’t believe we would be below 13 pilots an airplane.

You're probably right, I'm just trying to be a little over conservative.

This would be contingent on certain work rules and how it’s implemented. Wasn’t it mentioned on a conference call that they anticipated several months of zero upgrade and new hire and then resuming at a slower rate than now

I believe the number was around 3 months....

To the OP, we’re at 1,838 pilots now. At 160 airframes x 16 crews per plane would equal 2,560 (fewer needed with PBS). The half-way point with that is 1,280. Granted, Captain staffing is slightly beyond the 50%, but you get the idea. If you were 1,839 on the list we’d need approximately 3,700 pilots (assuming no PBS) or roughly 230 planes (an additional 70 not yet ordered). Point is, DO NOT come here presuming a quick upgrade...

The captain upgrades in class right now are April 2015 hires.

regardless of pbs if you are hired today you will never upgrade unless there are more aircraft ordered.

There will be another announcement soon in the range of about 130 airframes.

Pure speculation?

Right along with that ATL, IAH, MCO, and LAX base, right??:D

Investor presentations. Just like they stated no headwinds on labor costs until 2018. Everything is in plane (no pun intended) sight.

I don't have any idea. They don't address bases in investor presentations.

Have you even kept track of those presentations?? They removed that caption stating they needed more aircraft....

MCO base....man, I miss that rumor. Anyone care to run that back through the mill?

Mco base is opening with the start of the LAS route. Hotel accommodations in MCO are getting expensive and the LAS redeye is going to require 12 additional bokings per flight.

This sping we will be at 52 departures a day. Summer we will be at 54.

Out of LAS or MCO? That’s more than DTW, ORD, and DFW!

out of mco, it will be our 2nd busiest station

I'd consider changing my Hard No vote if we got ATL. All I'd ask for is a 2 cheese tray per duty period allotment to supplement my ramen diet.

SPIRIT AIRLINES TREASURER SAYS WOULD WANT TO SECURE AGREEMENT WITH PILOTS BEFORE CONFIRMING A NEW PLANE ORDER

https://www.reuters.com/article/brie...-idUSS8N1O302A

Perhaps...
Or this could be a carrot floated by management to try and help get this deal passed.
And remember, first comes the carrot, then we get the stick.

Maybe. But they've been advertising 130 additional airframes to the investors and SEC for over a year now. If anyone thinks NK is going to 161 airframes and stopping they're ignorant and stupid. NK has to grow, and will grow, with or without this contract.

AV the Eighth gets it

Fedex just announced a bunch of stuff, employee bonuses, pension contributions, etc.

What price will Spirit pay for waiting so long? Come on, all the cool kids are doing it.

FedEx announces wage increases, bonuses amid tax reform | TheHill

Doesn’t mean it has to be organic growth.... ;)
Let’s see, I seem to recall another ULCC placing an order for 100+ Airbuses... Airbusi? (Whatever the hell the plural is for Airbus!)

130 to be exact, and I go with “Airbii”.

FedEx is FedEx, Spirit is Spirit

Anyone who calls people ignorant and stupid for not agreeing with him about what he’s hoping will happen in the future needs to look in the mirror😛

Take a dump Dan!

They aren't disagreeing with me or my opinion. I'm merely restating what the company has said in investor presentations and in filings with the SEC. It isn't any different than the company repeatedly stating that there would be no 'headwinds on CASM' until 2018. Bam. 2018 and an AIP. It's like magic bra'!

The company has said over, and over, and over again that our growth has to be sustained at 15-20% until 2026. The 130 is a +/- guesstimate based upon post 2021 numbers as the additional airframes needed between 2018-2021 was never floated publicly. Now, lots of crazy stuff can happen with the economy, politics, mergers, accidents, terrorism, etc between now and them. But, if one looks at all the data released by the company to the investors and the regulatory bodies and says 'that !@#$ing bull!@#$' then you're either stupid, ignorant, or both.

I'll post tomorrows weather forecast if you needed something else to argue against.

The plan is to grow, anybody who denies that is ignorant. But being skeptical that it’s all gonna work out as planned is not ignorant. Stuff happens, things change. In 2026 we’ll know, until then it’s an educated guess.

And you’re wrong about the weather.

That my friend is very, very true.

Cheers.