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Old 05-03-2019, 03:46 PM   #21  
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You didn't list to the Q1 Earnings conference call at all, did you?

I did not listen to the earnings call, what did I miss? I do listen to and read the MEC messages.

Is there something I write that is wildly out of whack?
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:08 PM   #22  
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I did not listen to the earnings call, what did I miss? I do listen to and read the MEC messages.

Is there something I write that is wildly out of whack?
Yes, very.

There are additional airframes coming that are outside of the now 180 fleet plan. These will maintain our 15% YOY growth until the 'order' airplanes arrive which sounds to be in the 2024-2029 time frame.

Our current fleet plan has grown from 144, to 164, to 174, to 177, and now 180 without a single aircraft order.

The company stated repeatedly that the next aircraft order, and it also sounds like they've already picked the airframe, is coming. Not if, or maybe, or we'd like to. The company said on an investor call that an aircraft order will be soon be announced (Q3). So, unless you think the company is blatantly lying to its investors and to the SEC then it's pretty disingenuous to claim the last Captain has already been hired.

The 15% YOY growth was called out as being 'aggressive' by one analyst. The company said that it isn't and that it's actually a metered growth percentage due to the sheer size that this airline will become. This airline is going to grow and it's going to grow very large.

The call is well worth a listen and should be a requirement before anyone is allowed to post their uneducated opinion about what is and isn't going to happen here.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:51 PM   #23  
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Yes, very.

There are additional airframes coming that are outside of the now 180 fleet plan. These will maintain our 15% YOY growth until the 'order' airplanes arrive which sounds to be in the 2024-2029 time frame.

Our current fleet plan has grown from 144, to 164, to 174, to 177, and now 180 without a single aircraft order.

The company stated repeatedly that the next aircraft order, and it also sounds like they've already picked the airframe, is coming. Not if, or maybe, or we'd like to. The company said on an investor call that an aircraft order will be soon be announced (Q3). So, unless you think the company is blatantly lying to its investors and to the SEC then it's pretty disingenuous to claim the last Captain has already been hired.

The 15% YOY growth was called out as being 'aggressive' by one analyst. The company said that it isn't and that it's actually a metered growth percentage due to the sheer size that this airline will become. This airline is going to grow and it's going to grow very large.

The call is well worth a listen and should be a requirement before anyone is allowed to post their uneducated opinion about what is and isn't going to happen here.
Yeah, but I still go by the advice my great grandma gave me in November 1903: "you can't fly airplanes that aren't there".
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Old 05-03-2019, 05:40 PM   #24  
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Listening to the earnings call is a good idea, keeping in mind that it is a sales pitch for SAVE. As for opinions expressed on APC, no point in condemning the uneducated ones.
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Old 05-03-2019, 05:45 PM   #25  
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Listen? Nah, I googled it and got a transcript that I could skim for highlights in 5 minutes.

The transcript said the call was 65 minutes long. Save the time.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:52 PM   #26  
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Yeah, but I still go by the advice my great grandma gave me in November 1903: "you can't fly airplanes that aren't there".
Sound advice.
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Old 05-04-2019, 03:30 PM   #27  
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Yeah, but I still go by the advice my great grandma gave me in November 1903: "you can't fly airplanes that aren't there".
Sound advice except for this; If Spirit doesn't grow then that means a catastrophic event eclipsing 9/11 which in case it won't matter which seniority list you're getting furloughed from. Save for that, NK is a very safe bet for growth.
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Old 05-06-2019, 09:48 AM   #28  
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List vs. Listen. I figured it out.

I added at the end of my post it was my opinion. There are all kinds here, the debbie downers, the pragmatists, and the cheerleaders.

The 180 was a direct quote from the fleet plan posted on the company website. If you are planning your future at any airline you can go with the current fleet plan, or an unknown future order based on a given percentage growth based on capacity not total fleet size.

What is said on the calls is not written in stone, and they are careful to state as much.

We know there will be an order. When, where, how many, when will they arrive? I'll wait for the announcement. Until then I'll go with the current fleet plan.

MCO was supposed to be 300 pilots by April, it has 180? Stuff happens.

Where does the 4-5 year upgrade posted before come from? Any numbers to back that up?

Some key words from the call. utilization and gates

When the company increases the utilization rate for crew and aircraft, what does that do for increased fleet size?

When the company can't get the gates it needs for growth, what does that do to orders?

Take note that those two words were mentioned multiple times. How much Q & A was there on new orders?

Another increase to crew and aircraft utilization? Disaster recovery software and rescheduling. The company has both now and will learn to use it effectively.

Opportunity. How did we get to 180 airplanes? Opportunity certainly played a part. Getting the Chinese 320's, the two Mexican 319's, the two WOW 320's, were not planned. The WOW birds won't join the fleet until late fall. At some point the number of currently leased 319's to purchase runs out. This working at the edges, it adds up certainly, but it's not 200 new airplanes worth. It's a bunch of clapped out planes that need increasing maintenance. Which was a subject of the call.

Deferred delivers. Any information on pushing at least one delivery to 2020? Any correlation to the fire at the plant in Germany?

I'm all for growth, and I expect it.
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Old 05-06-2019, 10:09 AM   #29  
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List vs. Listen. I figured it out.

I added at the end of my post it was my opinion. There are all kinds here, the debbie downers, the pragmatists, and the cheerleaders.

The 180 was a direct quote from the fleet plan posted on the company website. If you are planning your future at any airline you can go with the current fleet plan, or an unknown future order based on a given percentage growth based on capacity not total fleet size.

What is said on the calls is not written in stone, and they are careful to state as much.

We know there will be an order. When, where, how many, when will they arrive? I'll wait for the announcement. Until then I'll go with the current fleet plan.

MCO was supposed to be 300 pilots by April, it has 180? Stuff happens.

Where does the 4-5 year upgrade posted before come from? Any numbers to back that up?

Some key words from the call. utilization and gates

When the company increases the utilization rate for crew and aircraft, what does that do for increased fleet size?

When the company can't get the gates it needs for growth, what does that do to orders?

Take note that those two words were mentioned multiple times. How much Q & A was there on new orders?

Another increase to crew and aircraft utilization? Disaster recovery software and rescheduling. The company has both now and will learn to use it effectively.

Opportunity. How did we get to 180 airplanes? Opportunity certainly played a part. Getting the Chinese 320's, the two Mexican 319's, the two WOW 320's, were not planned. The WOW birds won't join the fleet until late fall. At some point the number of currently leased 319's to purchase runs out. This working at the edges, it adds up certainly, but it's not 200 new airplanes worth. It's a bunch of clapped out planes that need increasing maintenance. Which was a subject of the call.

Deferred delivers. Any information on pushing at least one delivery to 2020? Any correlation to the fire at the plant in Germany?

I'm all for growth, and I expect it.
The majority of pilots sitting pretty here with seniority did so by coming here before an order was on the books.

Sometimes you need to take an educated guess and make a move to try and get ahead of the rush.

How many people could have come here pre new contract and didn’t? They said “I’ll wait and see what the new contract is.” Too late by then

People waiting to see if there is a new order before applying will only serve to sling gear of those who were able to make an educated guess on growth and took action.
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Old 05-06-2019, 10:35 AM   #30  
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The majority of pilots sitting pretty here with seniority did so by coming here before an order was on the books.

Sometimes you need to take an educated guess and make a move to try and get ahead of the rush.

How many people could have come here pre new contract and didn’t? They said “I’ll wait and see what the new contract is.” Too late by then

People waiting to see if there is a new order before applying will only serve to sling gear of those who were able to make an educated guess on growth and took action.

Absolutely. This thread started asking about reserve. Is it realistic today to tell prospects that they could spend more time on reserve, than new hires in previous years? Or that if they upgrade in the future, based on what we expect for growth, they still may see longer time spent on reserve than in the past as captains? Or that the may see their relative seniority stagnate as junior captains? Or do we tell them there is a boatload planes coming and they will be living large?

Just as an exercise, what do we think would be the number of aircraft on property to be at 50% FO for a new hire today? How many aircraft to be the junior captain? And how many aircraft to be at 50% on the captain list if hired today?
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