elmetal

can you guys show me where the transition period gives them "carte blanche"

it doesn't under pbs, only in the previous halfway line bid to pbs we had for a year.

MCDUmanipulator

The grid is almost always green outside of major holidays...

BKbigfish

Curious what numbers you are looking at here. From the order info I’ve seen posted on this site F9 will be at ~220 by 2026. NK will have 193 by 2021 with 100 firm and 50 options to come from 2022-2027. They’ve also stated they are looking for ~20 additional airframes supplement the current order. That puts NK at ~300+ by 2027.

ASAPsafetyGUY

Really? Reserve can’t pick up on days off?

Tranquility

Yes, really.

We have X/Y lists that scheduling can call you for 200%, but you have to be legal and what have you...

SFA320

I think he means bigger by proportion. F9 only has 98 airframes now, so 220 plus by 2026 is obviously more growth.

BKbigfish

Yeah true and if looking at it from a pure seniority perspective then one hired today would theoretically be better off seniority wise at F9 than NK. Assuming 16 pilots/aircraft:

F9

Current: ~90 aircraft/~1400 pilots

2026: ~220 aircraft/~3500 pilots (40% if hired today)

NK

Current: ~140 aircraft/2400 pilots

2027: ~300 aircraft/~4800 pilots (50% if hired today)

That being said the 10% difference is probably within the margin of error over an ~8 year period. Especially considering the option Spirit has for 50 additional airframes as that could bring the numbers much closer. As others have said, I do think it’s a valid concern that Indigo owns the orders and not F9 so those orders can very easily be allocated to other airlines under its umbrella as Indigo sees fit.

Overall lots of growth on both properties. I think given the variables it’s too close to call and one should make a decision based on which airline best suits them (bases, CBA, etc) in addition to considering potential relative seniority.

a2cbus

I’ve wondered if this is due to the fact that we had reserve pilots( awhile back, 5-7 years ago) that would somehow pick up on their days off and then not have enough duty time for their days on. This could then mess up the reserve coverage for the remainder of the month.

sioux8ships

Haha, yeah 5, maybe 4 years ago it was a free for all. Scheduling had their favorites and then it was “let’s make a deal time”. I remember, before our CBA became amendable, getting scheduling to drop reserve days for me for a future month that wasn’t even awarded yet. This was because I didn’t have any days for them to drop in the current month.

Aero1900

Both jobs are very similar. Pay is similar, and seniority growth looks to be similar. Tough decision for sure, but I believe that both airlines will offer a good job to have.

One note about the Indigo/F9 order; the massive 430 airplane order was placed by Indigo and although the order was divided up among carriers (Frontier, Wizz, Volaris & JetSmart) I'm sure they could reallocate them if needed. However, these airlines are spending money preparing for those aircraft, they are planning hiring and routes around these orders. Indigo has money invested in all these airlines and obviously wants them all to succeed. This is a totally different situation than a legacy airline trying to get their subcontractor to under bid each other in a typical regional airline way.

That being said, if there was to be a reallocation, I would bet that Frontier is far more likely to gain aircraft from a startup in S America than the other way around. Frontier has the highest chance of success out of the Indigo airlines so if there ever way a swap I bet it's in Frontiers direction.