Industry Consolidation & Mergers
 

In addition to the 4 largest U.S. airlines (American, Delta, United, & Southwest), we have 10 other carriers fighting primarily for domestic market share: Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country -- and recently Breeze, Avelo, Airbahn. The legacies are going to have to fight to defend territory while dealing with the continued impact on business and international travel due to COVID. The low cost model, while resilient in many ways, is not without its weaknesses. Issues with inflation, labor, oil cost, and so on spell turbulent times ahead.

All that said, what do Spirit pilots believe is going to happen to Spirit in the coming years -- and why?

We’re gonna finally change our name to Sprint.

By the end of 2022, the regionals will have mostly run out of eligible pilot candidates and the legacy airlines will still be looking for 3000+ pilots to hire. All 5 of the "big boys" will increase pay and benefits to try to draw as many pilots out of the ULCC's as possible. As pilots start to leave the ULCC's (most from the bottom of the list at first), working conditions will start to decline. Cancelled trips, no upgrades, and an over stressed operation with no growth and no end in sight. This will cause even more to leave. It will cause a snowballing effect and more and more ULCC pilots will make the jump.

As more and more make the jump, fewer passengers will be flying on ULCC flights and the more will be flying on Legacy flights. This will cause the demand for even more pilots at the legacy carriers.

In January alone, more than 50 Spirit pilots are expected to turn in their notice and go elsewhere. With legacies now hiring regional FOs, there is little reason for anyone with a good record to go to a ULCC.

There will be no real growth in any of the ULCC's in the next 5 years, and at best stagnation will occur.

From what I've seen/heard, sounds like what you guys got going on at AA.

your completely pulling numbers out of your A$$

Are you in the know? Any update what the real numbers are?

according to our VP of flight ops it’s 12-15 a month.

Edit - never mind. It’s not 12-15.

this post will be fun to see in February

Heck, Sun Country pilots are about to make more than us in January.

unrelated question;

does anyone know what a face covering is? I thought they already had a word for that...

where all have you applied? I just hate seeing anyone so miserable.