How Big Will We Get? 300+?
 

According to the latest fleet plan, we are only showing 230 aircraft through 2023, however I recall seeing one that went up to 293 through 2027 I believe. I wonder if we will ever top 300 aircraft or how big spirit can grow in the ULCC market? Plus, lots of new entrants in 2021 for ULCC competition, F9 and NK will have to grow to defend territory, etc. Will be interesting indeed.

Can Spirit really attract that many pilots when the legacies are growing and adding pilots at record numbers? If the legacies get the 16-20% pay raises that are forecast later this year, will Spirit be able to keep up.

The limitation on growth will certainly be available pilots and airplane deliveries (supply chain delays). Last I heard, UAL/DAL/AAL were going to hire 5000 in 2022, and the same again in 2023.

I suspect that Spirit's (or Frontier's) business model can support 300 or more airplanes. However, I'm having doubts that the economic + industry conditions will allow it. The biggest issue right now is that the legacies are hiring thousands upon thousands of pilots in the coming years. It seems that being at a ULCC let's one write their own ticket to just about anywhere they want as of early 2022, and as long as we don't see any major economic disruptions, large scale wars, or an asteroid impact in the coming months and years, it's going to be extremely problematic for ULCC recruiting+retention (especially so at the regionals). I kid you not, I hear regional pilots talking about going to a low cost carrier now because it's a golden ticket to a legacy ... legacy gets someone typed + experienced in an A320, it doesn't hurt their regional feed, and it keeps their competition from growing.

The company has to pony up and pay up, i believe even with 30% across the board we will still be a profitable airline. Looking at Sun Country, they signed a contract with hourly rates quite similar to ours that we signed over 3+ years ago. I am confident this time around and that we have some good leverage, otherwise Spirit will not beable to meet their growth needs and the shareholders will not be happy campers. Just my 2 cents, but the company knows this...

the company won’t pony up it will hire 1500 hour CFI and foreign pilots before they pay more. Let’s hope I’m wrong

Afraid you’re totally correct!

some people forget how much of a “leverage” we had in the last contract and that didn’t matter. Took years to seal the deal.

That was certainly their MO in late 2017, hire pilots they knew were not qualified to move on.

works temporarily until they get 500 hours of Airbus time and their out the door as well.

All legacies now willing to hire people with no college degrees. Please don’t think I’m implying that’s everybody at an LCC- that’s not what I’m saying, but I know quite a few guys who went to LCCs with no degree and figured they’d park there. Now things have changed and they might shift to a legacy if called now they are able.