If there is a solid path forward.
 

Let’s say this management group or a new management group formulates a viable path forward, what are the chances that it can’t be executed regardless because massive attrition implodes the airline.

Can what will be viewed as a dying airline be able to hire enough employees to backfill the massive attrition and execute the path forward?

I personally believe attrition won't be as massive as you think. Hiring is slowing everywhere. People will still leave and try to Leave no doubt. But I highly suspect that the days of spending 3 months here and getting a call from 3 legacies is rapidly diminishing. At least for now. I get your point on a larger sense... I just see some of these young guys being shocked when the big 4 aren't calling with 2500 total time.

Maybe so in a macro sense but I assume with blood in the water the legacies will be prioritizing any application with Spirit as the current employer. They will want to bleed us to death.

yes! There is a solid path forward.

they recently poured cement on the path that goes of the cliff. So it’s fully cured and feels pretty solid..

Hiring is slowing from all time highs, but American and United still want 2k this year, Delta wants 1k, Southwest, Alaska, JetBlue, Atlas, etc are all hiring still.

of course they are. However they are getting apps from the likes of UPS and FedEx. And I heard delta just stopped temporarily. So the spigot hasn't been turned off but it's being restricted. People will leave but it won't be as easy as just submitting an app, the way it's been the last 3 years. Many assumed they'd get a call after a few months here. I just speculating they are in for a surprise that it may take much longer than they have gotten used too.

I hope they didn't burn any bridges when they quit there flight school last year.

Sure, people are arrogant and think because they’ve been somewhere for 10 years, they’re entitled to another job as soon as they click Submit. If Spirit shutdown tomorrow, there’s a job for every Spirit pilot over the next few years. American alone is retiring over 700 pilots each of the next 4 years.

Are your apps out Noise? Time to get ahead in the line of 3k pilots looking to abandon ship before it’s too late. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

My question was can spirit execute a VIABLE path forward if they are bleeding employees faster than they can replace them.

This of course presumes they actually have a VIABLE path forward ready to execute.

Put your apps out while questioning.

Do you have three years salary saved?

I think that is the path. Cut the fat, focus on filling the airplanes on routes that make money. They’ll have to be a smaller, leaner operation to do that.

So is there an educated guess as to how many planes Spirit could have after a potential Ch 11 bankruptcy and liquidating some assets? I saw a post on here at one point (couldn't find it) saying that if the merger doesn't go through Spirit will compress down to 150 planes or so.

Yes, the old "shrink to profitability"!

The good news is this is all happening in a tremendous hiring environment, so most have options that may be better than using "hope" as a plan!

Some will wait for the re-arranging of the deck chairs, others will look for a more seaworthy boat! Both have risks, each person has to figure out their own risk/reward decision.

I would point out that applying to someplace does not force you to make a decision. Interviewing someplace else does not force you to make a decision. Get a job offer someplace else, now you have a decision to make.

In this specific circumnstance applying and interviewing is a no brainer, if for no other reason than to keep your options open in case things go further South.

Ah yes, continue to **** off people. Just **** off a lower proportional amount. The path needs to get people on the planes and happy to be there.

Nothing has stopped at Delta.

WSJ is reported to have talked to insiders saying Spirit is looking at a filing

Guessing shedding the non-performing jets (Pratts) to get rid of them, downside operations etc. This has happened before, Spirit was a much smaller carrier and they grew relatively fast. No reason they couldn't do it again.

File for ch11, restructure the deal, appeal the ruling. See if the DOJ wont be compelled to do a deal then. Zero downside at this point.

I would say the WSJ is captain obvious on this. Of course they are “looking” at it.

Problem with that is you would need to know the structure of all the leases. You don't get to say I want that airplane but not this one within the same lease agreement. So, you might be in an all or nothing for groups of airplanes. Perhaps some of those groups you could say you would keep "nothing," but without seeing what the lease agreements are it may not be so easy to pick and choose which airplanes go away. With the current market for narrowbodies I would consider the lease owner to be in a pretty good position of strength and just "accept" the rejection of the lease agreement in bankruptcy. You don't get to have the bankruptcy judge re-write the lease agreement, you would have to negotiate that with the lessor. In the bankruptcies in the early 2000s the market for the airplanes was terrible, so lessors would often re-negotiate (though not always).

I think bankruptcy holds off re-posesstion for like 60 days, but in that time period you have to either re-negotiate the lease, accept the lease as is (and pay for it) , or regect the lease and the aircraft go back to the lessor. In today's environment, I don't see them to be willing to re-negotiate any as there would prob be a line of folks willing to lease them starting today.

Yes the lease structure matters.

You can in BK, with court approval, reject a lease. Or accept a lease. If rejected, then secured assets (planes) will be repo-ed immediately.

You, or the court, cannot forcibly restructure the lease without the consent of the creditor. So you can't cherry-pick. Unless the leases were packaged to make that easy in the first place, example each individual plane is on it's own lease... the lessor would charge more to do it that way of course.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spiri...131724161.html

Looks like a refinance of the debt seems to be the path they want to go down to avoid Chapt 11

They were very profitable as a leaner operation. Many people here have said that at a certain point, growth actually hurts the ULCC model. Scale back the operation and focus on slot machines and Mickey Mouse and they can get back to profitability, but not with the current management team.

I think talk is cheap. There will be attrition, but it will be bottom up. There will be very few captains leaving and the airline will not implode due to lack of pilots. Just because people are applying elsewhere, not all will get hired. My bet is you will see Jr FO's and downgraded captains as the first wave. Attrition will take months and may reduce the furlough numbers.

My bigger concern is what is the path forward? Will we convert to a full fare airline or something along the lines of SWA. Or could the Frontier merger re-emerge. The ULCC market is shrinking, and probably only needs one carrier to meet the demands. My bet is our liquidation would be a blessing to Frontier, as well as Jetblue.

My next bet is Teddy will resign/fired/parachute of gold out as he will not be the one to restructure us out of this mess. Any takers on a bet whether his departure will be this month or next month?

Hell leave and probably write a song about how much he cares about NK employees as he just ran it into the ground.

is it true that David Portnoy gave a cash infusion to spirit?

He was day trading $SAVE stock today and posting it on his X account.... must be nice to be worth $800M and go play with $2M in the stock market. He made a what a NK CA makes in 1 year all in 1 day.