Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3777158)

they did - in second quarter last year. But no one wants to remember that. Yes spirit showed a profit Q2 last year, but by Q3, spirit was going into a merger where making money wasn’t going to help get the merger passed. Then all of
a sudden; spirits doing poorly. Do I think spirit is in perfect shape? No! But let’s give credit where it’s due.

Originally Posted by symbian simian (Post 3776863)

The thing is, it is hard to figure out...
Yes, we have a clearly defined number of crews per plane. And you can calculate some of the cost of that by adding all the pilot slaries together. But there is a lot of other cost, like support staff, training staff, office building, Simulator time, that does not decrease if you furlough crews. And we would not furlough crews, we would furlough junior FOs, so very little cost savings. One of the biggest reasons there weren't more furloughs during the pandemic (outside of gov cheeze) was that the cost to retrain everyone was higher than to offer over 50% pay for people to sit home.

Napkin math:
Furlough 25%, so 1000 on 1st&2nd year pay, downgrade 500 on 5th year pay would save about $180M/yr or $45M/Q. And it would mean 30 aircraft not staffed, but they have no engines anyway...
Sounds great. But NK net loss last Q was over $180M, so you would have to furlough the other 75% of the pilots as well to save enough........ (yes, I know, furloughing the senior would save more)

(What I do find interesting is that the whole strategy of NK was always been based on continued growth. And anytime the growth would slow down the analytst would be worried, and pushed for growth. And now all the analytsts are saying that the ULCC market is only so big, and we can't be profitable at our size. And they have known about basic economy from the legacies forever, and/or should have known the effects of that.)

Originally Posted by Irishblackbird (Post 3777082)

I think Teddy kind of alluded to that in his video message today.

My concern is you have to spend money to make money. But can we do that with not having made a profit since the pandemic, massive debt coming due, and parked airplanes.

Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3777209)

Hate to give thread any validity, but I believe the math you did was factored wrong. The original post said 25% of FOs will be furloughed, not 25% of the company. There are about 1,833 FOs, 25% of that would be 458. If you furlough 1000 FOs, you're losing more than half of the FOs on property lol. And then even with a 10% downgrade of CAs, there will be a significant imbalance of CAs to FOs where CAs largely outnumber the FOs.

So I think the numbers we're looking at is between 400-500 FOs to be furloughed and 170 CAs to be downgraded if this post renders true.

Originally Posted by GhostKhost (Post 3777250)

400 or so first year is 72x97x400 = 2.793M

100 second year 72x142x100 = 1.022M

100 four year captains 72x109x100= .785M

70 five year captains 72x109x70= .550M

5.150M of straight hourly rate cost savings per month. No idea what they’d save on taxes, benefits, and the individual cost to re qual furloughed pilots later down the road to weigh against.

Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 (Post 3777267)

why did you count 4 and 5 year captains at 109?

My basic bath shows them saving ballpark 70 million a year with 400 less FO seats and 125 less CA seats . A not insignificant number and one the company I’m sure is considering. hope it never comes to that. Contract I think stipulates they have to ask for voluntary furloughs before involuntary. So if we get an email asking guys to leave early , or who may wanna take
some time off unpaid (nobody) then we know what the next move is gonna be. Let’s hope that Email doesn’t come.

Originally Posted by GhostKhost (Post 3777277)

Captains going back to FO rates.

Originally Posted by PossibleDeviation (Post 3777288)

But 4th and 5th year FO rates are at 175-180/hr.

Originally Posted by GhostKhost (Post 3777250)

400 or so first year is 72x97x400 = 2.793M

100 second year 72x142x100 = 1.022M

100 four year captains 72x109x100= .785M

70 five year captains 72x109x70= .550M

5.150M of straight hourly rate cost savings per month. No idea what they’d save on taxes, benefits, and the individual cost to re qual furloughed pilots later down the road to weigh against.

Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3777350)

Theres currently over 600 FOs on first year pay, so all the FOs that would be furloughed by the 25% bs math would be first year guys and gals.

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3777394)

Moving forward. Frontier comes back to buy us but this time with a lowball offer as compared to before. We are desperate and they know that nobody else can really touch us. (Unless maybe allegiant wants to get into a bidding war.)

what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by Noisecanceller (Post 3777398)

Another merger is the only reason they would have abandoned the appeal. JetBlue was probably agreeable because maybe they have buyers remorse.

There was zero reason to abandon the appeal otherwise.

Originally Posted by B200 Hawk (Post 3777409)

Why would an exec leave for frontier if that’s the plan, to rebuy us?

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3777412)

so now that executive has our “playbook”information, so now frontier knows what it needs to do. Idk.

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3777394)

Moving forward. Frontier comes back to buy us but this time with a lowball offer as compared to before. We are desperate and they know that nobody else can really touch us. (Unless maybe allegiant wants to get into a bidding war.)

since we are both ULCC’s airlines, the DOJ can’t say crap this time. Merger is approved both airlines become one.

maybe now that we’re not competing with each other we can get some quality of life and pay improvement out of it? both Spirit and Frontier pilot groups will prosper.

what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3777460)

What do you think the odds are of a Alaska / Hawaiian merger being approved by the courts?

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3777460)

What do you think the odds are of a Alaska / Hawaiian merger being approved by the courts?

Originally Posted by B200 Hawk (Post 3777409)

Why would an exec leave for frontier if that’s the plan, to rebuy us?

Originally Posted by Noisecanceller (Post 3777521)

Who said anything about frontier

Originally Posted by iahflyr (Post 3777606)

Frontier/Spirit would be approved, and Alaska/Hawaiian will be approved. In those cases two similar airlines are merging to better compete with the Big 4 and keep prices down,

JetBlue’s goal was to shut down an ULCC, remove that completion, and pilfer their planes and employees to grow quickly. That would have raised prices for consumers, and as a result the DOJ sued and the judge ruled in their favor. Two very different scenarios.

For most of our lifetimes there were 6+ true large carriers. I think that’s where the industry is heading again. Alaska/Hawaiian will be the first brick to fall. We will see if Frontier/Spirit becomes a reality, or if something else is cooked up.

Originally Posted by Softpayman (Post 3777611)

Lol…
Pilfer their planes and employees? As if they would turn them into slave labor and burn their planes at the gates. Gimme a break pilfer…

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3777394)

Moving forward. Frontier comes back to buy us but this time with a lowball offer as compared to before. We are desperate and they know that nobody else can really touch us. (Unless maybe allegiant wants to get into a bidding war.)

since we are both ULCC’s airlines, the DOJ can’t say crap this time. Merger is approved both airlines become one.

maybe now that we’re not competing with each other we can get some quality of life and pay improvement out of it? both Spirit and Frontier pilot groups will prosper.

what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by Billy Tate (Post 3777630)

The downgrades and furloughs are coming. Ch11 is coming

Originally Posted by SpeedBrakes (Post 3777665)

You and [MENTION=76565]Halon1211[/MENTION] Spending too much time in that circle jerk together....hands must be getting chapped

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3777394)

maybe now that we’re not competing with each other we can get some quality of life and pay improvement out of it? both Spirit and Frontier pilot groups will prosper.

what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by Ed Force One (Post 3778336)

Please... Negotiations would drag 3 years and we'd end up with our current rates plus 1%. (exactly what Frontier got last round)

Originally Posted by iahflyr (Post 3777606)

Frontier/Spirit would be approved, and Alaska/Hawaiian will be approved. In those cases two similar airlines are merging to better compete with the Big 4 and keep prices down,

JetBlue’s goal was to shut down an ULCC, remove that completion, and pilfer their planes and employees to grow quickly. That would have raised prices for consumers, and as a result the DOJ sued and the judge ruled in their favor. Two very different scenarios.

For most of our lifetimes there were 6+ true large carriers. I think that’s where the industry is heading again. Alaska/Hawaiian will be the first brick to fall. We will see if Frontier/Spirit becomes a reality, or if something else is cooked up.