Originally Posted by InsideAnalyst (Post 3901603)

I calculate operating synergy offset of a Frontier merger to be about 20-30 million against our cash burn, at best. Maybe 35 million in an absolutely ideal scenario.

Even if our monthly cash burn was only ~$50 million, that would be a ~$20 million deficit monthly, ~$120 million deficit in a year, which dwarfs Frontier's profit. Best case.

That being said, Frontier deal could still work with the same equity swap concept which would reduce our debt and therefore debt payments and reduce that deficit number considerably. That's why they have still made some offers. The numbers on this are super super tight though, and that's why their lowball merger offers have been rejected by our bond-holders so far.

The sentiment I'm tracking is that Frontier would rather not deal with a merger and just buy our jets at a discounted rate unless they can get a sizeable reward/discount from our bond-holders for taking the risk and headache of a merger. If our bondholders get spooked (if they are not already), they may make that move. Or they may just trigger liquidation before we burn through all of the cash they just gave us. The sooner they liquidate, the less money they lose, but then they have to sell off everything, which is not as attractive to them as it was even 12 months ago.



Broken for the oversaturated condition. Most business models aren't broken in a vacuum, but we are not in one. The carriers with stronger balance sheets will do what they can to promote a somewhat oversaturated situation during the downturn to take market share and eliminate competitors. We can't compete by trying to undercut them on price, which is why we are trying to shift away from being a ULCC. Will our business model shift work in time? I'm unsure.

Originally Posted by InsideAnalyst (Post 3901585)

Exactly. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Those with capital right now can afford to buy things and take losses as needed.

That is not us. We do not have capital. We cannot afford to take additional losses. We also cannot compete on price with the larger carriers.

I am a retired Wall Street analyst who's making a second career out of flying jets. I have resisted creating an account for a while despite tracking this forum for almost 20 years. I've tried to stay out of it and just watch sentiment but the reality is this guys:

Our recent bankruptcy served one purpose and one purpose only and that was to liquidate/transfer equity away from the shareholders.

Even if we had managed to increase our revenue by double digit percentages (which is not going to happen with a few more big seats or a few SWA passengers coming over due to bag fees) and decrease our cash burn by double digit percentages, both of which are unlikely, our business model would still be broken.

That was before DeepSeek knocked US tech stocks down earlier this year revealing how our stock market was really not doing well at all and the "Magnificant" Seven stocks were the only thing holding it up.

That was before the Tariff war kicked off.

We were in a coffin, then those two recent economic events really put the last nails in it.

It is my (formerly) professional opinion that unless we are acquired or find a cash-rich merger partner, we will be on the street by Christmas. None of our bond-holders are going to risk throwing more money at us in this climate - they will sell us or liquidate.

If you do not have apps out right now because you plan to ride the ship down and then see what happens, I respect that. If you are not putting apps out because you think our odds of surviving the year are decent, I encourage you to crunch the numbers and reconsider. Worst case if you apply you might get an interview, you might then get a CJO, and then a class date. From what I hear, that process can take 8-12 months right now depending on the carrier. That should give you some good time to see what happens here and hopefully prove me wrong.

Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3901373)

does this guy ever STF*. Someone please close this thread before it starts

Originally Posted by InsideAnalyst (Post 3901603)

The sentiment I'm tracking is that Frontier would rather not deal with a merger and just buy our jets at a discounted rate

Originally Posted by JayRalstonSmith (Post 3901721)

There is no discounted rate for your airplanes. The used market is as high as it has ever been. No one is getting those airplanes at anything less than full value. Vueling, Wizz, etc will fly them with the yellow paint and all, with just a decal on them.

Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3901728)

Dang, I guess even TC read my message and had an honest conversation with himself last night.

Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 3901726)

Also, the company would have to actually own the airplanes for them to be considered assets in a liquidation. 100% correct that those A/Cs would be returned to the lessor and sold at a premium in the GLOBAL market.

You would think that someone claiming to be a former analyst on the street would know that.

Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3901738)

Without digging I thought Spirit still had 35 owned aircraft? Last time they turned 30 into leased aircraft it raised some coin.