Exactly my thoughts. If TSH is in the running for the 24 175's that are still unassigned as of yet, they aren't going to be slated for TSA because CPZ can bid lower and get them due to the lack of the cost of starting up a certificate.

But, TSH is doing a really stupid thing for the nature of the labor market right now in that it is running three separate companies, certificates, pilot groups, and seniority lists that are competing against each other in hiring. I understand the reasons for running three separate certificates and it was in the past a economically advantageous practice but its not anymore. Mesa learned it, Republic learned it, why can't we?

I get that Mesa and Republic still shared seniority lists across their certificates so reconsolidating was an easier process that it would be for us, and I know every time a rumor of a merger has come up management has unilaterally shot it down, but I feel like industry forces are going to make it all but impossible for us to staff everything unless we merge in to a bigger airline.

A CPZ and TSA merger wouldn't be that hard and would come with it the benefits of having the 175 certificate so if we did pick up 24 more E175s we could have a much easier time staffing them and would not have to pay to establish them. Everyone wins.

A gojet and TSA merger however, the chaos that would create scares me a little. I wold be fine with a fair an equitable seniority list merger between us but I was not present for the creation of gojet or its aftermath. I'm sure there are many people at TSA that would not accept that merger unless the entire seniority list at gojet was stabled on to the bottom of the entire seniority list at TSA. Naturally, gojet pilots would be opposed to such an action and would feel like they are getting blamed and punished for something that happened long before they came to the company and had nothing to do with because most of those guys weren't around for the creation of gojet either, they have a very junior seniority list anyway from what I am led to understand, and I think the resulting ****ing match in our combined labor force would further cause new hires to stay away from us.

So, what are everyone's thoughts on this scenario?

I know I feel like a TSH merger is alot more likely than UAL buying us at present but thats really all I have to go on, a gut feeling.

You're not alone in this. Like you said, before this scheme had a purpose but the industry has evolved to the point of this potentially being damaging.

UA will not buy a regional, The F/A AFA contract "No flying by Subsidiaries" The TA prohibits the company from operating flying by subsidiaries who are not on the UA seniority list..My gf is a UA f/a..

Half of the E175 order is already slated to go to Republic.

Perhaps I misread the article but, they bought those airplanes from republic, so, why would they wind up at republic anyways?

Where did you get this information from?

Haha. The fa contact prevents ual from doing wholly owned? Seriously?

That was rather dumb of ua to agree to.

In a perfect world this problem would be fixed overnight by having ual regional feed flown by pilots on the ual senority list flying regional jets at b scale pay with a clear pathway from regional pilot to legacy pilot within the same company. Similar to how sas or Lufthansa does their regional feed. But, this isnt going to happen because mainline ual pilots wouldn't allow b scale pay for flying jets currently under their scope limitations even though it would protect their feed and bring all the flying in house, and stop the labor shortage.

The article didn't say, but it's in the bankruptcy filing. The planes will be bought by united and then leased to Republic. The exact number hasn't been revealed but I think people found documents indicating anywhere from 12-24 being operated by republic.

Hmm, that would make sense, then that would mean there really aren't 24 175's that are unassigned and open for bidding.

There really isn't any more flying out there to be gotten right now except for air wisconsin's flying if they don't renew but that is more 50 seat stuff they may very well just plug with PSA or Envoy.

That is not exactly correct. We (C5) have hired enough pilots to staff the ERJ's. Some of them are stuck in the training program however. The dash had to pick up some of the routes for the ERJ for the next couple of months.

The Dash is being replace with additional ERJ's. We will see 3 ERJ's arrive every other month. The 3rd ERJ is to be the replacement for a Dash. That 3rd ERJ is not included in the 40 that we are getting.

We have also been informed that some of the ERJ's will not be XR's and not all of the ERJ's are coming from XJT.

Republic email to pilots dated Nov 16th:

"As a part of these settlements, Republic is released from its obligation to purchase 24 new E175s from Embraer, which we could not obtain competitive financing for while we were still in bankruptcy. However, United has agreed to purchase these aircraft directly from Embraer, and United has committed 12 delivery positions to Republic beginning in April 2017. And we remain confident that additional EJET growth opportunities still exist in 2017."

United has yet to announce where the other 12 will go.