Are retirements running faster than expected?
 

Three years ago I printed out a snap shot of my expected seniority progression. I used a website online. I forget the name right now, maybe someone else remembers. Anyways, the point is it projected my seniority for March 2017 at 5400 based purely on retirements. My number just broke 5000 and is now 4982. Thats over a year faster than the original projection. Anybody else notice this? Are that many guys going out on medical or is there something else in the way the numbers are calculated. I took the 4982 number off my vacancy bid page.

http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/a...ps3amt3ycm.jpg

Is your Vacancy Bid number a true seniority number or does it just consider "Eligible Bidders." Not counting those on Leave (Medical, Military, or some other form).

Anyone know what that website is for figuring out what your seniority you'll be at retirement??

http://www.unitedseniority.com

Joe,

That website used all the pilots on the seniority list...it didn't exclude non-active pilots. I wish I saved my snapshot but I believe my results are similar to yours.

Our pilot head count has been pretty static the last few years. It's always around 12,500 give or take a hundred. I still think hiring is barely keeping pace with retirements.

How far are the first off the street hires in 2013 from holding captain?

They are around seniority 10500 now so about 1000 numbers away? Some time in 2019 if everything continues the way it is now.

First post merger hires were NOV 2012 and they are exactly 1000 numbers from the JR Captain. The JR Captain was awarded in AUG of 16.

Awesome thanks guys. Pretty much the same at AA. The guys hired at US in 2011 are about 1000 away from LGA 737 captain.

Pilots on any type of leave - sick leave, LTD, some sort of personal or company leave are accounted for on monthly staffing and are double bid on vacancy and displacement bids. Even if someone is on LTD for decades and they are never coming back, until they retire, quit or pass away they are accounted for in staffing, vacancy bids and the seniority list.

I've tracked my seniority the same way you have for years and I'm ahead of my projected seniority by a couple hundred numbers and I'm just under 2000 on our seniority list.

Since the only way someone comes off our seniority list, staffing and vacancy bids is by retiring, quitting, get fired or pass away my assumption is a fair amount of early Pre age 65 retirements.

Your monthly staffing number is updated every month. It's your most accurate current system seniority number.