AA vs UAL
 

I am a retiring military pilot and I am fortunate to have CJOs to both AA and UAL. I don't think I can go wrong with either option, but I'd really appreciate inputs to help me make my final decision.

I'm currently living in Las Vegas and plan to remain in the southwest US but not necessarily Vegas over the long haul. For family reasons, I think the LAX domicile is the best fit, but we'd also be willing to potentially relocate to DC down the road.

As an outsider, here's how I see the pros and cons:

United:
- Pros - bigger percentage of widebodies mean quicker upgrade to widebody FO. (Under the current retirement rules, I only have about an 18-year career left, so I'm not sure I'd ever see widebody Capt.) United seems to have a slightly better business plan, is currently making a larger profit, currently has better profit sharing. This might even out when new contracts are signed, but from my perspective, it seems more likely United can withstand the next downturn.
-Cons - I'll likely start in SFO and commute to SFO over my career if I want to progress quickly. LAX is a more desirable domicile due to my family situation, but it's United's smallest domicile and I'm not sure how quickly I can progress there.

American:
-Pros - overall quicker progression due to the massive wave of retirements coming. This likely means a quicker narrow body Capt upgrade than United, but due to the lower percentage of widebody aircraft, it will probably take longer to get to widebody FO, and with only 18 years left, I figure it's low probability to get to widebody Capt. Another pro is I can get to LAX immediately, and probably progress more quickly there than at United due to the size of the domicile and its junior status. I can also reserve a jump seat in advance so the commute will be more predictable if I have to fly from LAS.

-Cons - I'm a little concerned with American's debt and long-term business plan. Can it weather the next downturn without massive furloughs? It also seems like American has work rules that don't measure up to United's but these might even out in the long run.


I guess what I'm saying is both are good companies, neither one is perfect, and I'm sure I'd have a great career with either option. Just wondering if there are major things I'm overlooking. Thanks in advance!

You pretty much have all the pros and cons figured out. Vegas to sfo is an easy commute as there are about 30 flights a day. Lax not so much. Staying based in sfo means rapid seniority movement.

AA’s debt is a huge concern, and their pilots contract isnt nearly as good as UALs.

Given your timeline and stated desire for west coast widebody flying I wouldn’t even consider AAL. Something like 30-40% of UALs flying is widebody. American is mostly a domestic narrowbody airline with some seasonal widebody service to South America and Europe. The big 321XLR order gives a lot of insight into AA’s international strategy.

You have to be in the top 10% of the seniority list to hold west coast widebody Captain at AA. That’s not going to happen in 18 years. AAL is canceling a lot of pacific long haul while UAL has a steady stream of new route announcements.

The AAL contract is severely lacking (that might change soon) but considering the debt load it’s unlikely AAL will ever have an equal international footprint to UAL or DAL. They will most likely just farm it out to Joint Venture partners because it’s cheaper and easier.

If your goal was to be a 737 or A320 Captain or you wanted to live in Florida then I would say pick AA. Seniority progression will be faster at AA on the narrowbody domestic side.

I'm currently at a AA WO with a flow in about a year. AA debt is going to get them in trouble if they don't face it immediately. Plus, their spending is out of control on new HQ.

The retirements are great at AA, but you will probably have a less turbulent career at UAL owing to lower debt and better business plan.
How soon are your class dates?

Americans debt is largely in part due to fleet replacement and their capital spending is pretty much done over the next few years. Parker gave a good synopsis on why the debt level is where it is during the investor update from a month or so ago. UA and DL are much further behind in that regard.

You can’t run a business using Dave Ramsey’s advice. Personal finance strategies do not carry over to the business world. Americans debt level is where it is bc it is not bc they dont have a choice but bc it is the smarter business play.

I’m a civilian with the opportunity to be making the same decision. Being an 9th year regional CA, and commuting for 6 1/2 of those years my decision is boiling down to which airline is going to offer the best base to live in or have the easiest commute for where my family and I choose to live long term. Good luck....choose correctly!

I agree that AAG management practices are alarming, but keep in mind management changes over time, and the flavor of the “airline industry” will be different next year than it is today. IMO choose what gives you better QOL to be at home with family....in the end this is just a way that we pay our bills.

I’m not in the least bit worried about AAs debt. They have people much smarter than us driving finance decisions. I can’t imagine that Parker would do anything to intentionally hurt AAs viability considering the fact he holds about $70 million in stock.

But for a pilot who aspires to west coast international widebody flying and has a choice between AA and UAL the obvious answer is UAL. United has a much higher percentage of total flying being widebody international and they are on a strong growth path with those aircraft. AA continues to shrink in the pacific. Reduction of PEK, PVG and NRT. Those slots will likely go to UAL and DAL. The latest HND slots were awarded DAL-5, UAL-4, AAL-2. Those stats should tell you all you need to know.

A newhire will move up the seniority list faster at AA but that list will be skewed more towards domestic narrowbody (as a % of total flying jobs) than UAL or DAL. For some that’s a huge positive others a big negative.

Agree with everything you said.

Friends and classmates at both.

UA.

Parker vs Munozirby? Easy. Unless of course you need to be the BMIC on that 0610 PHL-ALB flight in Feb 2023.

But, I’m an outlier. Just ask the Marvin’s.

So some easy numbers

At UAL approximate timelines:

LAX: NBFO... newhire or first BiD
756 FO: about 6 months
787FO: 5 years (that’s an assumption that might not hold true)

NBCA: 2025
756 CA:2029
787 CA: sorry not going to happen you will retire around 4000

SFO WB FO in 2023
EWR WB CA in 2038 (you might not be around for it. I just choose somebody in the bottom hundred with your approximate birth year......good luck