PVpilot

Word is based on current projections due to retirements, AC orders, and future growth that new hires can expect to be Captains within 5 years. Of course not all bases apply, but I agree it's very attainable. Wanted to throw it out there and see what others predict.

UAL T38 Phlyer

That would be a Capt at about a seniority of 10,000, usung today's numbers, and about 300 guys a year retiring/hiring.

Won't say impossible, but unlikely. I was told the same when I was hired, but it's been almost two decades.....could maybe next year, but I don't want to be a bottom-Reserve commuting Guppy Capt.

That's what your expectation, above, portends. Except maybe the commute.

Probe

It is cyclical. When there is movement upward, lots of pilots end up "frozen" and some very junior folks get bids they would normally not get.

When movement is downward, everybody gets put back in their "silo" and the junior guys get bumped.

I am on my third upward movement. I believe my third downward movement is about to commence soon.

Unit revenue is trending down rapidly the last two quarters, and traffic is down as well. Into this, all the majors have been adding capacity, and the low cost ones adding capacity very rapidly. It feels a lot like 01 and 08.

horrido27

Thanks for the good laugh. Needed it after the last few days.

So.. Hired in '07 when we had 2 year upgrades (an anomaly). Currently 10100ish on the seniority list. Junior Capt is 8700ish. I'm roughly 1400 pilots away from most Junior Captain.
Based on 350 (senior) retirements a year.. I COULD see Captain in 4-5 years. [12yrs to Capt]
Reality-
Between now and then.. age 67 will probably happen. A major conflict somewhere in the globe will probably happen, and some sort of worldwide economical downturn will probably happen.

Figure out when you will be roughly 67% on the list. Only then can you actually plan on holding a Captain Bid that will probably raise your pay while lowering you QoL.*

It's a fun game to play. And Management will use it come Contract 2020 to lure FO's into voting YES. But the reality is.. don't plan on being a Captain for quiet a while.

Always
Motch

*IF we were to place an order for the CS100 or Eseries aircraft we will probably see 2-3 year Captains.
Based on 2016 payrates- you are looking at payrates between $128 - $139 for 2-12yrs.
Almost no pilot who will be on a longevity over 5 years will switch (except for the odd pilot who needs to wear 4 stripes, or is betting on overnights at home!)
And to bring it home- IF we see these aircraft sometime next year, it would be at least an $8 an hour paycut.. and more likely $45 an hour, for me and my fellow 07 hires.

On the other hand, someone hired during the beginning of the wave will be on 3-5 year pay. For them, it could be a slight raise.
That being said. Anyone hired this year or on will probably need more than 5 years to hold a worthwhile Capt Seat.
Just my opinion~

Otters

DAL had a vacancy around Feb. on two bids Captain went into 10,000 range. We had 3 year captains here awhile back. It will happen again. Someone's always wiling to chase it.

horrido27

While we are getting 10 new 777-3's starting end of next year, and also A350's the year after that.. We will most likely retire the fleet of 74's along with some of the older 75's, 76's and 77's.
Also, once we lose the Whale (see what I did there), the company will be able to reduce (even slightly) the amount of pilots by requiring one less BES along with their required reserves.

Also, anyone want to bet that we see those Domestic 777's do some 2 leg 8hr+ two man (or woman) crew trips? I have already seen 756 pairings that are one day trips and 8hr+, 2 man.
Company will probably just keep manpower as it is (short) while expecting to pay SRM. Notice they are offering COLA's for the fall already!
Cheaper to pay some pilots a little more than to have to pay extra pilots.

But keep up the enthusiasm! And Welcome Aboard~
Always
Motch

PS> Set an alert on your IPhone for 5 yrs from today. Will be fun to look back and see how it all worked out.

horrido27

True..
Was it B717 out of JFK?

Goes back to my post about what will happen here if we get a SNB sometime in 2016. If it doesn't happen this year into next year, I don't see it happening until the next CBA and the company using it as a lure~

Motch

Otters

MD88 on one bid, 717 on another. I believe around 10400 seniority. Apologize if I'm off a little

full of luv

88 out of LGA/JFK/EWR

Believe it or not, the 717 goes relatively (although very close) senior to the 88 in all co-bases despite the about $7/hr pay difference.

Otters

And yes. New York