Expect 50% pay cuts next week
 

Everyone,

With all the news and reduction in flying, emergency measures have to be taken. Cash burn is going to kill off the industry, and the government bailout will be too slow to save us if things remain status quo. United has 75-80 days of cash.

As such, I expect the following in the next few days:

1) Massive surplus reduction lines in the neighborhood of 40% of pilots

2) 50% pay cuts on top of those. You won’t get a vote.

3) Furlough announcement of 20-30% of all employees.

The break even on pilot furloughs is one year.

These measures are all preferable to a Chapter 11 Bankruptcy filing, but they might take it into CH11 anyhow so they can renegotiate all of our lucrative union contracts.

After 9/11, flying was halted for three days, and everyone besides SWA and AA was driven into Chapter 11. Management will ensure the survival of the corporation first, but once they have accomplished that they will also find a way to screw the employees.

The government will give us money this time, but not without the unions getting crushed in the process. They wouldn’t give us a $2.1B loan guarantee in 2004, which led to the dissolution of the pensions and another $1.5B in pilot givebacks, but they had no problem giving AIG a $120B bailout four years later.

They (AIG, Merrill Lynch, etc.) then gave themselves bonuses with government money. For the banks and Wall Street, no problem. Unions? Take a number.

Get ready. It’s coming.

50% paycut announced was for corporate officers no?

Correct. We can’t furlough pilots quickly enough to save cash, so a 50% pay cut is the only way to do it and possibly stave off Chapter 11. Granted, we may give up pay and go Chapter 11 anyway, but when it gets to that point they’re no longer asking. The danger of Chapter 11 is that they will legally steal from you and pay the banks while pocketing a portion for themselves.

As someone else mentioned, when management pay/stock buybacks/bonuses return, our pay comes back, too.

Is there any way to rig this where the employees get stock in exchange for pay cuts? If the survival of the company can be (reasonably) assured, now would be a great time to “buy in”. Yeah, I know we had an ESOP once that failed, but just trying to think this through a bit.

put your big boy pants on. Thats not exactly how the process happens in your first paragraph and the details make a huge difference. One is time and the timeline of this favors pilots

also, any SnapBack language will have loopholes and will be found. The pay won’t come back for years or a decade. Ask me how I know.

this is happening fast and they are conveniently capitalizing on fear. It’s not a good situation but signing up for massive paycuts two weeks in won’t save the airline and bankruptcy wont happen overnight. A bankruptcy judge handing out paycuts would take much much longer too and by that time we would all have a better idea of what the big picture of the world economy is.

I certainly hope you have a cooler head when it’s hitting the fan in the airplane

You do understand that 911 was a economic event that started 6 months before the actual 911 event with the largest drop in revenue ever seen up to that point. 911 occurred with airlines already facing massive losses and was followed by a huge runup in oil that keep airlines from making money despite decent demand.
Contrast that with today where you had record profits going into the event and oil at 60 a barrel. Oil is now at 34 a barrel not 140 a barrel.

No problem with anything you said.

I hope I’m wrong. I’m in favor of temporary cuts to keep UA out of bankruptcy court, as we all know we will lose even more there. That option is rigged in their favor.

Dragging the process out favors us in the short term. If we drag it out and it goes CH11, then it favors them in the long term: I was here for that, as you were.

FLY THE AIRPLANE, SILENCE THE WARNING, CONFIRM THE EMERGENCY.

For all you who are trying to make sense of this and are being bullied by the “big boys” who know everything, you have a right to be worried.

This is a historic world issue never seen since the world wars. It is not like 9/11 or any other downturn. No where in history has politicians and a few disease experts had this kind of control and are hell bent on stopping the unstoppable.

The cry is often, “see what China did!” The rest of the world isn’t governed nor culturally like Chine and their solutions will not have the same economic results here in the USA.

The airlines will need cash as will all the business shut down over the next two to three weeks and the US Government can’t promise protection and pay for everyone. It doesn’t collect enough taxes to pay for the current programs.

Yes expect to have layoffs, furloughs, salary reductions and more. Also expect you Union representatives to do their best on your behalf, but there are limits to what will be available.

Air travel will return and people will live through this, but it will be a challenge.

Stop listening to those “big boys” and live.

Huge pay cuts coming. And probably a huge furlough numbers too. Hope you all aren’t living beyond your means and have that raining day fund funded.

Thought I just read here last week that there wouldn't be any furloughs? ;)