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-   -   Seeing the forest for the trees..... (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/128251-seeing-forest-trees.html)

Nucflash 03-17-2020 09:07 PM

Seeing the forest for the trees.....
 
Look past the virus situation for a second. The big picture is that *an event* has happened that will push this country into some degree of recession. All you need to do is look around your hometown to see that.

BECAUSE of that recession (again, it doesn’t matter what caused it) we will be pushed into what I would term a “normal” furlough cycle. Believe me, the airlines are now waaaaay past planning for a demand rebound within a couple of months. A “normal” recessionary cycle lasts several years and that’s what they will be planning for. So, in a sense, that makes it easy to predict what will happen with staffing. Will it be 10% or 20% or more? That depends on mitigating factors (government bailout, ALPA negotiations, etc.) For that part we will have to wait and see.

For what it’s worth, I believe this MEC leadership will not lightly leave heads on the chopping block as was cavalierly done in ‘02 and ‘08.....

whaler 03-18-2020 12:11 AM

American might be thinking the same thing by offering early outs. Might not get much of a rebound after this event. Embrace the suck sucks.

Voski 03-18-2020 03:00 AM


Originally Posted by whaler (Post 3002252)
American might be thinking the same thing by offering early outs. Might not get much of a rebound after this event. Embrace the suck sucks.

More on this: I suspect the early outs are the first round of cuts, more are on the table and likely coming. AA’s financial situation is dire...

Big John 03-18-2020 03:37 AM


Originally Posted by Nucflash (Post 3002216)
Look past the virus situation for a second. The big picture is that *an event* has happened that will push this country into some degree of recession. All you need to do is look around your hometown to see that.

BECAUSE of that recession (again, it doesn’t matter what caused it) we will be pushed into what I would term a “normal” furlough cycle. Believe me, the airlines are now waaaaay past planning for a demand rebound within a couple of months. A “normal” recessionary cycle lasts several years and that’s what they will be planning for. So, in a sense, that makes it easy to predict what will happen with staffing. Will it be 10% or 20% or more? That depends on mitigating factors (government bailout, ALPA negotiations, etc.) For that part we will have to wait and see.

For what it’s worth, I believe this MEC leadership will not lightly leave heads on the chopping block as was cavalierly done in ‘02 and ‘08.....

Mnuchin just said 20% unemployment was a possibility if the situation doesn’t improve.

Up7997 03-18-2020 04:23 AM


Originally Posted by Nucflash (Post 3002216)
Look past the virus situation for a second. The big picture is that *an event* has happened that will push this country into some degree of recession. All you need to do is look around your hometown to see that.

BECAUSE of that recession (again, it doesn’t matter what caused it) we will be pushed into what I would term a “normal” furlough cycle. Believe me, the airlines are now waaaaay past planning for a demand rebound within a couple of months. A “normal” recessionary cycle lasts several years and that’s what they will be planning for. So, in a sense, that makes it easy to predict what will happen with staffing. Will it be 10% or 20% or more? That depends on mitigating factors (government bailout, ALPA negotiations, etc.) For that part we will have to wait and see.

For what it’s worth, I believe this MEC leadership will not lightly leave heads on the chopping block as was cavalierly done in ‘02 and ‘08.....

another loser throwing out numbers you know nothing about. Just stop.

Andy 03-18-2020 05:10 AM

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Unfortunately, the worst case scenario keeps looking ever more bleak.

Good luck to all.

Grumble 03-18-2020 04:53 PM


Originally Posted by Big John (Post 3002292)
Mnuchin just said 20% unemployment was a possibility if the situation doesn’t improve.

No.... what he said is that 20% was a POSSIBILITY if the gov't doesn't act on the stimulus bill. Totally wrong just like all the rest of the bs you've posted since you joined. A week ago.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...uchin-n1163006

The Sentinel 03-19-2020 04:35 AM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3002328)
Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Unfortunately, the worst case scenario keeps looking ever more bleak.

Good luck to all.

They say six months living expenses as a buffer. I hope this is over in three months.


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