Furlough estimate
 

Anyone have any updated educated estimated numbers yet?

How are people supposed to know? Any emails that give you an idea? Otherwise its just pointless to speculate on the amount.

You are unnecessarily getting yourself worked up. No one and I do mean no one knows what’s ahead.

3000


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Sure, I can can give you a very accurate one if you can provide two numbers:

1) Required staffing for summer 2021

2) Required staffing for summer 2022

Regardless of whatever happens, I'm convinced that *if* UAL furloughs (and that's admittedly likely given current info) the furloughs will continue right up to the recalls.

1500ish on October 1st is my guess. I personally don’t see 756 fleet coming back. Current staffing is 1900ish... subtract 400ish retirements in next 12 months...

I hope my guess is wrong... but think company has decided now is the time to park a fleet permanently. I also think additional furloughs will continue up through mid next year unless bookings improve.

Here’s a related question.

How quickly can they recall when that time comes? Are they limited to the same capacity as the standard new-hire rate? Or can they bring people back quicker if the time on the street is under a certain amount?

If demand is slow to return but builds up speed, I’m sure they don’t want to be unable to meet the demand.

Im Holding out positive mojo for zero. Early Retirement offers accelerate, SRL and ESRL with empty lines continue indefinitely until we reach balance. Bailout 2 comes extending us through the tough time another 4-6 months and boom, we good and at summer 21’.

People want to get moving.

Yes.

There is a training document somewhere that shows the requirements for long vs. short courses.

Spot on assessment.

Nice post over on the DAL forums yesterday which tried to lay out possible furlough scenarios based mostly on Summer 2021 and 2022 numbers. It actually was somewhat optimistic. https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/3...-post1417.html

In our case, we don't have as many retirements as DAL and our international flying will probably be slower to come back. I'm not inclined to rethink what he did for UAL on my own, but I'd sure be interested to read someone else's take. With nothing better to go on, I'll hazard 1100 at high risk and 500 at medium risk.