it is everyone hired since the merger (2012) and down into pre merger pilots so DOH means very little.

TSA numbers are probably the best metric we have to look at in the short term. At least it’s a legitimate, quantifiable figure published by an independent agency.

What else is there? Bookings? Who knows what they truly are. We don’t have access to the company’s reservation numbers and frankly they might have reason to be opaque with the figures as they do improve. So right now, it’s just TSA.

This initial bump in the numbers probably indicates that people are simply more comfortable with the notion of getting on airplanes. That’s fine, but until Disney, Hawaii, cruise ships, resorts, conferences, etc. open up there won’t be a significant improvement. Long term people have to have a place to go and a reason to go...otherwise why travel?

I know it is ridiculous to try and spin the displacement in any way positive. But, this is the company doing a total system rebid while still following the contract. As daunting as this looks, would it be better to trickle out smaller displacements every month, with everybody trying to game the system, not knowing where you will land? IMHO, better to know where we stand sooner in the worst case scenario. And the wisest way to not waste money in multiple bumps and trainings.

FYI, this is about $1.4 billion per year in pilot salary cuts. Considering the loss of flight hours already, we can call this the SECOND round of pilot pay reductions.

A third round is coming next, will it be furloughs or concessions?

What I think some are losing sight of is that the 6801/8001 numbers are cutoffs for NB CA/ WB FO. That’s going to ultimately send all these pilots to NB FO (after multiple bumps). That does not equate directly to furloughs...it will depend on how things are looking at the end of the summer. There is no reason for the company to give furlough notices prior to 01 SEP if they cannot pull the trigger until 01 OCT, and right now any predictions are just guesses.

Domestic flying is likely to recover partially over the summer IF the virus dies down, but international is going to stay a mess regardless due to a lack of coordination between nations and too much uncertainty and variation between policies of every different country. If flying picks up within our borders, we will need the NB fleet especially to protect market share from the likes of SWA (who btw is still flying a LOT more than we are...I estimate more than 50% of the arrivals into SAN are SWA planes based on recent visual observations).

This displacement starts the setup for the possibility of a very large furlough in October, yet also allows the company to assess in 4 months and maintain an overweight staff in our NB fleets if the picture is starting to improve. This is where the company will dangle the furlough minimization “carrot” if ALPA agrees to cuts, and while tempting, many of us have learned that our returns on concessions are not proportionate or verifiable or in any way worth it.

I don’t think that any of us were expecting this big of a bid. Some thought 4-5,000, but over a series of bids. If we’re making changes this big to the United side, I wonder what is going to happen to the regional side. Will we be able to take back flying with our excess aircraft, or will we just furlough deep while the regionals flourish?

The suspicion certainly has to be they will want to use 175s to substitute for narrowbodies on a lot of routes. You think Jonathan Ornstein hasn’t already called up Kirby?

”Scott, sorry about all this....how can we help??”

I don't think the regionals will 'flourish', but I suspect that they will use them right up to the contractual limits (if not slightly beyond if they can get away with it). Maybe we should ask that question at town halls instead of the stupid ass ones I keep hearing.

I have asked those questions, but they pick the ones that they want to answer.

How does assigning of training work in a displacement ... can’t seem to make sense of it reading the UPA ... I’m a EWR 756 FO on the displacement notice; hypothetically, if I and every other EWR 756 FO junior to me is displaced to EWR 320 FO, is training assigned in reverse seniority order?

What is the A320 training footprint if you have never flown an A320, and how many can UAL train on this footprint in an average month?

Last question ... is there a cap on how many folks (who are not displaced) can volunteer to be displaced? And if not, what would happen if every non-displaced pilot volunteered to displace into a position that required training? What would that do to the company’s house of cards?

A320 Training footprint is essentially 4 weeks , (20 days) +/- a day or two.

Volunteers for displacement take the displaced pilots one for one, and they displace with the DISPLACED pilot's seniority number, For example, if your seniority number 700, and the displaced pilots number is 7000, you could only displace into equipment that seniority 7000 could displace to. Once you've displaced into new BES,, relative seniority is then based on your own seniority number (700 in the example).