Best/Worst case scenarios and arguments
 

Posted in another thread might as well post on it's own. Here is my personal synopsis with some possible scenarios:

Let's start with the scenarios if the TA passes:

Best case scenario:

2600+ furloughs canceled (2850 adjusted with mitigations)
Cares 2.0 passes and company accepts: NO MPG cuts until Cares funds run out. NO furloughs until December 2021,.
Thousands of displacements canceled
Pay protections for those on the displacement awards, even if displacement not canceled.
655+ early retirements (further mitigates furloughs)
5% pay raise/if demand returns.
11k LTD
70 seat RJ’s
First Class DHD
People on seniority list in case of a merger

Worst case scenario:
Cares 2.0 doesn’t pass: Furlough delayed until June 2021 with no cares act passage, then ~2000 instead of ~2600. If company furloughs more, agreement terminates.
MPG cut to 35 hours for the junior folks and 52 hours for the middle, 60 hours for the top until agreement terminates.
655+ early retirements (further mitigates furloughs)
5% pay raise/if demand returns.
11k LTD
70 seat RJ’s
First Class DHD
People on seniority list in case of a merger


Here are the scenarios if it doesn’t pass:

Best Case:
Thousands of furloughs starting in 2 weeks.
Most displacements proceed/are final.
No mpg cuts.
Company in the middle of next year with strong demand will recall the furloughs. Good luck trying to train 2-3 thousand of pilots coming back from furlough in addition to new vacancy bids in a relatively quick way.

Worst case:
Thousands of furloughs in addition to the ~2600 announced
No mpg cuts for those still here
More displacements and downgrades
The company was going to go down this path anyway.
Furloughed people on the list in case of merger (Ask how that worked out for the LUAL guys)




Arguments from people opposed to it:

Argument
You knew the hazards when signing up for this career, furlough is part of the business. Why should I subsidize your career?

Answer:
You also knew the hazards when signing up for this career, being part of a union and a staying strong together is part of the business. Although I think United, especially with all the scabs, loves to eat their young, I hope that most people will look past the cut and see the greater picture. I bet, most of the middle and senior group would be a hard yes if they were much closer to the bottom. And no, you are not subsidizing the junior guys. I would argue the junior guys are subsidizing the middle and senior guys. How many will be able to keep captain and/or widebody pay while displacing and being much more senior in their seat and being able to pick up trips? How many will keep their high paying seat? 50% mpg cut for the junior group while a fraction for the senior group is bs. This should’ve been even across the board cut.

Argument:
The company is using this so that they can make us essentially part-time employees.

Answer:
There are clear snapbacks in place to bring mpg back into place. Do you really think they want thousands of pilot sitting around at half mpg while paying for their benefits? That is not efficient. They want to squeeze every bit of productivity out of you. Look at what happened in 2008-2009 after the furlough people were flying almost 100 hours a month.

Argument:
The company is using this to squeeze us and there is plan is to file bankruptcy so they can squeeze us even more down the road.

Answer:
No, see above, they would want to make everyone fly the max hours and be efficient, the mpg cuts would not be a smart thing to keep.

Argument:
The MPG concession is not worth it, keep the contract intact, FPLD.

Answer:
I hope most people see the bigger picture. Having thousands of extra people on the seniority list and having thousands of people not be displaced has huge implications with bidding and pay. Yes there will be mpg cuts if cares 2.0 doesn’t pass or funds run out and demand doesn’t return, but these are not payrate cuts, you will work less for the same pay rate. The big benefits of having people below you in BES and thus being a higher percentage for bidding is something I think most people are also overlooking. Additionally, for thousands, they will be payrate protected and the mpg cut for a big portion of the group will be significantly less than what everybody is proclaiming.

Final thoughts:
This is by no means a perfect agreement, as seen by the junior/middle/senior group split up which insane. But, as a whole even in the worst-case scenario it is an easy yes vote. If cares 2.0 passes and if demand somewhat returns this will end up being a HUGE win for everyone involved. Even in the worst-case scenario above with cares not passing, thousands of pilots will A. Keep their jobs, but work much less (junior group). B. Have their displacements canceled, AND even if they don’t get their displacement canceled, be payrate protected. C. Have people many more below them in BES and seniority list. and D. Have an additional 655+ early retirements which will only help everyone. Will this fix everything and we will go back to 2019? No, it won’t, but it will provide much needed time for the majority of people at the bottom, for the industry to stabilize and provide significant benefits for the majority of the group.

Well stated!!!

Your post makes me want to vomit. Way to sell an extremely concessionary deal hard. The company is leveraging furloughs against your group. It's that simple. You either fall for the bait and become the lowest paid major pilots out there or you don't. You have no idea how long this agreement will be in place.

Another view from another guy. Borrowed with permission.

​​​​​​<<• Dividing the Seniority List into 1/3 segments may be the most divisive thing I have ever heard of from ALPA

• Destroying the contractual cornerstone of our pay matrix is not the camel’s nose, but at least a hump, possibly two, into the tent. MPG is a term that means Minimum Pay Guarantee! It is your financial safety net, and we are literally going to give it away!

• People will say that very few people will get paid MPG, because they get paid LPV/PTC. In normal times, I might agree for lineholders, but nearly 100% of RSVs get paid MPG. Indeed, under the current plan, there will be a significantly increased RSV presence for months, if not years to come.

• People espousing LPV/PTC May be forgetting that MPG has been the driver of the Line Construction metric. Accordingly, if we are going to dramatically reduce MPG and have thousands of “extra” pilots on the payroll, then what will happen to Line Values? Well, we already know from the current fleets not doing much flying…Lines built to below MPG!

• Line Construction Floor (LCF), Line Construction Ceiling (LCC) and Line Production Average (LPA) are talked about as if they will not be touched. I’m here to say “That’s impossible!” However, you notice no-one is saying anything about it! What MPG will do is drag LCF waaaay down, but allow the Company to hold LCC at 90 hrs (current book on max hours), and LPA will be set anywhere the Company wants it.

• What the destruction of MPG does, therefore, is slash the costs to carry pilots, and allows the Company the flexibility to either slash LPAs towards MPG or build lines all the way up to 90hrs, as you can see for yourself from the System Parameters Document they’re required to include with PBS.

• Allowing such “variability” runs absolutely contrary to ALPA’s entire history of protections and is going to create significant angst with the current dislocations. Today, we have some fleets, seats and domiciles with virtually no flying, with MPG saving people’s livelihoods. However, we also have fleets, seats and domiciles that are running at full tilt, with Captain’s openly bragging of consecutive $50,000 MONTHS, and FOs regularly pulling down over $30,000! I don’t begrudge them their largesse, but start giving large swaths of the pilot group effective massive pay cuts, and we have just handed the Company a tool to create a furor!

• Pay. Do the math!
MPG reduction from 73 to 60 = 18% Pay cut
MPG reduction from 73 to 50 = 32% Pay cut
MPG reduction from 73 to 40 = 45% Pay cut
MPG reduction from 73 to 35 = 52% Pay cut

These cuts are WORSE THAN THE BANKRUPTCY!

MPG “only” went down to 65hrs in the C2003 Bankruptcy Contract, yet here we are, $17B in the bank, taking cuts GREATER than in Bankruptcy???

For what? Why?

• We are now hearing that the TA will run for years, while the furloughs are only delayed until the end of May??? And, what “long term gains” are we getting for such a ridiculous set-up??? First Class Deadhead? $11K LTD? Some kind of RSV improvement? These are TINY things in comparison to the MASSIVE reductions in pay.

• Lastly, for now, we have been SOLD THIS DEAL because it was the ultimate way of “Furlough Mitigation.” The Company came out and said they were going to furlough 2,250 pilots, in order to “right size.” ALPA agreed just to “talk” about mitigation ideas. Immediately, Carlson put out that the number was now NOT 2,250 (1,750 in Oct, 250 in Nov, and 250 in Dec), but had suddenly jumped to 3,900…or a convenient 1/3 of the pilot group, that allows for a nice clean “slice and dice” of the pilot group into 1/3rds!

However, it has become clear that this deal is NO LONGER a “furlough mitigation” deal, but a “furlough DEFERRAL” deal!

We give for years, two years was floating around yesterday, but furloughs only get delayed for a few months until the end of May, per Tony!

Now, I’ve seen some bad deals in my time, but come on!

• The completely divisive carve up of the ISL
• Pay cuts in excess of bankruptcy
• Removal of our previously untouchable Minimum Pay Guarantee
• Expansion of our Line Construction parameters

And for what?

• A slight delay in furloughs
• A few shiny objects brought forward from our TWO YEAR PAST DUE NEW UPA!

We are in uncharted waters, about to be smashed against the rocks of hostile territory, and a schism within UAL ALPA that may never be repaired, and will be repeatedly capitalized on (in ways we cannot yet even imagine) by the Company.

This is not the time to throw away the foundational principles of our contract. IF this is the time, with $17B in the bank, what will they come back for in 2021, with “only $10B” in the bank? And if we get to $5B?

We need to stay strong, sit on our hands, and stop taking responsibility for the COMPANY’S DESIRE to furlough pilots AND DECIMATE OUR CONTRACT!

This is not our fault and we literally do not have the money to fix it for them! They just want us to pay for their “flexibility & variability” for a few years…while they STILL furlough pilots!>>

I just wrote out my opinion with what I see as an overall good to very good deal for the majority of the pilot group.

Please tell me in detail how this is concessionary looking at the whole package for the vast majority of pilots? I'm talking displacement cancellations, pay protections, and furlough protections.

Lowest paid major? I don't see payrates changing.

I do have a very good idea, it's covered in section Q-U. Look it up.

Your pay is your hours multiplied by your payrate. If you make one of those numbers smaller, your pay goes down. Spirit paid pilots 50 hours per month to not work. You guys are paying a new industry low 35 hours per month to work. If you can't see how this is concessionary in nature, then you are dumb as ****. (It's worth an infraction.)

First, I do not like how the pilot group is being divided into thirds!!! I acknowledge why it’s being done though. This TA was designed to have the best chance to ratify. If it doesn’t, the math is very simple.

Those of you who are in the middle third will be the bottom half of the airline. Your QOL will go out the window and ALL displacements will be activated. So, there’s a pay cut. Those of you who were line holders, many will be on reserve. This will be for a while too.

Those of our pilots that get furloughed, most will likely be gone for a while. Many may not get recalled. Make no mistake about it. If this TA fails, at least 3900 pilots will be on the street. That has an effect on almost everyone left.

Another thing to keep in mind is that our MPG is very important and I’m not arguing against that premise. But lowering our MPG makes us more inefficient than we already are. We are very inefficient workers, from a management standpoint. We have strict regulations on how much we can work and how much we can’t. It is in the Company’s best interest to have a higher MPG and less bodies on property. Not less MPG and more bodies. That is a snap back in and of itself.

We can’t be compared to Alaska, Spirit, Southwest, JetBlue, or any other carriers other than Delta and American. The other carriers don’t fly any true international flying. We fly a lot of it!!! That changes the staffing matrix considerably. Especially since the international market is likely to lag in recovery compared to domestic. In fact, Delta and American have a bigger domestic footprint than we do. So their recovery will be different than ours.

Actuall it’s very clearly defined how long it will be in place.

Riiiiiiiiight. You must have no historical perspective. Read your airline negotiations history.