Next downturn we're unlikely to to get billions in relief funds and we're unlikely to get the majority of the pilot group to agree to the three tier pay scheme.

Considering I met him over 10 years ago when he was a 777 F/O and senior to me. I’d have to say you’re full of chit, but hey at least you’re not afraid to spout it out loud and proud.

Done deal…
 

With roughly 1800 literally voting on one section that concerns offline, TK and LCA and how many within 2-3 years of retirement this baby is a done deal regardless. Never been an easier setup for 50+1. Looking forward to seeing it sometime this weekend but smart enough to know the pilot vote is a moot point. It’ll pass regardless.

61% to 39% passing

Sadly, that means leaving money on the table.

if it doesn’t pass how long till we can vote on another one?

Honestly, no way to know or answer that one. As for a guess…
6 months minimum 2 years possibly.

This type scenario/vote is exactly why I have always said that if offline and TK should have a separate contract altogether and by being offline or TK should not be able to vote on our contract nor should we vote on their 1-2 sections that are over and above ours. Now notice I did not say LCA cause they actively fly the line with a bid schedule. So only offline does this refer to.

Any position that is not bid with by their hire date seniority and placed in a position by an interview with management should not be voting on our contract. And as long as this practice continues ALPA is simply an Ops group association and not a true union.

One month for the longest. Kirby WANTS a new contract. United is motivated to get this done. If we vote it down they will throw some more money at us to get it done. There is no way Kirby allows this to linger.

benefits United to get it done soon before they have to match or exceed someone else’s bar. Don’t fear timeline. If it’s not a great TA vote No

I agree. We cannot paint ourselves in a box and feel pressured to accept this. There is more pressure on the company to get this done than the pilots. Make them earn it.

That's the million dollar question. It could be turned around with blazing speed...or we night not see another TA for years.

I think we can make some pretty good assumptions though... Notwithstanding the LCA & PI bottleneck the company doesn’t really think they have a problem. We keep chugging along and the flights keep going close to scheduled. They are already throwing a lot of $$$ at us...but only the fortunate among us that get lots of Premium Pay. They don't feel the need to spread the wealth among us all. Also, the expedited review period prior to the MR vote appears designed to force a vote prior to 2Q results. That alone would cause me to vote NO.

One final thought. The company wants this signed soonest - before the financial benefits of the recovery kick in to full gear. By signing early we acknowledge that we can't capture all of the upside, but it may be worth the risk to sign a deal given the tenuous economic forecasts. There a several ways we can hedge the financial risk of signing early. Two of those have been in recent contractual LOAs - a 'me too' clause & a pay increase triggered by measurable profitability. Neither of these are in the TA which tells me the company doesn't want to share in the success we helped build. Instead we have a short term contract - amendable in 18 months. This indeed gives us the opportunity to negotiate wage increases, BUT the company will have no incentive to reach an agreement. So on we go...another multi year delay beyond thr amendable date. We JUST WENT THROUGH THAT. Did we get a deal in 2019 pre-COVID when we were at record profit levels....or did we go past the amendable date?

This TA doesn't come close to capturing our share of the financial success of United. Financial success that wouldn't have been possible without our coperation.

I'll cut you some slack since you didn't have a chance to read through the contract before posting one month. NO. The contract is concessionary as far as work rules and needs a significant rewrite. Unless the MEC is going to run polling on what the rank and file wants to see in TA2 while this is out for ratification, it's going to take time to just know what the rank and file is ****ed off about.

This is going back to the MEC and I expect this summer to be a long painful schedule meltdown because people aren't going to be picking up open time.

But we could vote this in for a new Tumi suitcase. :D

Agree. After reading through all they documents, etc. this turd needs to be flushed with a complete re-write. I still think the company WANTS a new contract more than we do so they are motivated to get it done. Unfortunately, the MEC doesn’t even know what we want and will have a lot of legwork to do if this is (hopefully) voted down.

We have so much to lose and very little to gain if we vote this in…well except for the Tumi suitcase. :)

The MEC has a pretty good idea what we want; I don't think they are out of touch with the rank and file.
My personal opinion is that the company's negotiating committee steamrolled ALPA negotiating committee (NC) and the MEC and NC decided 'no mas.' The MEC then decided to send this to the rank and file to reject it just to drive the point home to the company's negotiating committee. Had the MEC rejected it without sending it out, the company negotiating committee would not get as clear a message.
That's my take.
But - Tumi suitcase. :eek:

I see some wisdom in your comment…. That is entirely possible!!! Buuuutttt for an “entire” rewrite, will take a significant amount of time, and that’s if there are no recalls after this!?!?

Time is on our side.

If we vote No:
- we keep 10am 1st day, wide body landings, etc etc
- we will still get the LOA 5% raise
- we don’t give up anything
- Kirby doesn’t get what he desperately wants and is motivated to quickly come back to the table

If we vote Yes:
- we give up way too much all for what? A paltry 4%???
- Kirby gets what he wants and we’re stuck with a worse contract for much longer than 2 years because he will have nothing else he needs from us
- we’re the laughing stock of the industry

Wow, what a difference a few days make. Go back and read the expectations at the beginning of this thread before the TA was out. Crazy how bad it actually is.

What are the chances that we actually get this? We have had 0 quarters so far that met the criteria. Q2 may actually be profitable, but what happens once this summer revenge travel stops and the economy slows down from its rapid bounce post-COVID? (Not to mention if a recession actually occurs)

I’m definitely not planning on getting the LOA 5% pay raise if this TA fails. I believe we will be stuck with the current contract for a while.

If it was the intent to pass this to membership to “send a message” then that should be immediately communicated; otherwise, they’re risking the confidence and value of the union for some unspoken agenda. Nothing is worth risking that and I have to believe that’s not the case here.

The roadshows will be interesting. We’re at a point in time where labor actually has some leverage and most of us will likely never see it again for the rest of our flying careers. I suppose that’s why I’m most surprised at the shortcomings. Some further explanation from official channels is certainly desired.

The only thing I've gotten from my LEC is a notice of a meeting next Tuesday to present the TA.
Things move fast in the internet age. I've always been pleased with my LEC reps so I can wait until Tuesday. I'm not ready to try, convict and lynch my reps before they've had a chance to state their defense.

To give you an idea of how unhappy I am, I was pretty hammered last night after reviewing this TA. My wife is working today so I have a run of the house. And when it was 5 o'clock (happy hour) in Dubai, I was awake and started drunking again. So when my posts start to sound totally incoherent today, you know why.

Will one of this guy’s friends please tell him how pathetic this sounds?

Idk. He might be on to something. 🍻

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...nd-2022-04-20/

Scott Kirby forecasts the largest ever profit at UAL to be reported 4 days after voting closes and you’re not sure about the 5% raise coming?

Ok, let’s say we don’t get the 5%. You don’t seem to understand that we are giving away a lot of gains that have been made in the current UPA. Even Line Check Airmen are losing. They used to be paid extra for every leg. The TA only pays them for those legs to do checks on. Peruse the forums for a complete list of the concessions in this TA. Why vote in a concessionary contract? The measly raise won’t even Ben that much once taxes are taken out.

Section 6 and retirement

This is the " beef" in any contract. If you can't pay the bills nothing else much matters. Yes insurance and scope are important also but it all comes down to the mighty $$$$ . No RETIREMENT plan no laundry.

I think he's spot on. The only thing this so called TA will produce is an increase in alcohol sales.

Q2 will be profitable, that is already known.