FedEx
 

FedEx is parking airplanes and putting the brakes on hiring. Is this good news for the Majors (Contract)? One less avenue for pilots to go for sure.

bad news if anything. Means the legacies and majors may not be far behind.

Hopefully not

Maybe maybe not. They are parking older DC-10s that they brought out of the desert during covid. Buying trends have shifted away from buying things online. As the world opens up, specifically east Asia, belly hold cargo on pax carriers will increase as well. Reducing the the demand for cargo only lift.

One is commerce and people buying goods. Naturally being affected during a period of inflation. The other, for the time being, are people continuing to buy experiences. Will we ebb? Most likely. Especially considering business travel. The question is how do we position for the flow. More precisely, do we pay for the company’s gamble?

I believe Amazon is putting the hurt on them.

FedEx hasn’t flown an Amazon package in quite a few years, since 2017 IIRC?

It’s not mystery; they are experiencing a correction “back to normal” after the incredible pandemic cargo boom. Whether we will correct after the post-pandemic pax boom we are STILL in remains to be seen…..

Where is the source on this?

They stop hiring during the holidays so that they can fly. They are ramping back up in Feb. BI starting monthly. This is an annual thing.

Parking planes? You mean the MDs they are phasing out? Being replaced one for one with brand new 767/777.

What and who is your source?

Latest guidance from Purple is 1900 need to be hired, 3-4 year upgrade, they have hired and trained 600 by EOY.

https://ravencareers.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/11-14-hiring-recruitment-update.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0mzqXbTgtJP4VMHgfkWtdwjcXR2H TDsDx1D_qmqIdGmJh--N02XwZdr-I

Isn’t it pretty routine for FedEx to get all hands on deck and stop newhire classes for their peak season every year?

yeah the issue is: what's going to happen next year?

‘It is peak season, Cargo carriers usually pause training during this time of the year because it goes all hands on deck for the increased flying. The only planes I heard of being parked are the older MD-10s….. They still have 767/777s coming on the line…. Let’s not put the cart before the horse too much..

less aggressive hiring and the world will still keep spinning

2019 FedEx was starting to tank, 2020 gave them a boom as everyone ordered online. Now all the doom and gloom they are spouting is them correcting back to 2019 levels. Not a big story here.

Fedex last earnings conference call was very downbeat. Looking to cut over 2 billion in costs for 2023 and predicting the world market going into recession with associated reduced cargo demand.

Isn’t this a common theme from ever fortune 400 right now? Most, including UAL, are predicting a recession…however we are already in one according to the definition.

I think the last quarter had a positive GDP.

Whose definition? Yours? GDP growth last quarter, S&P higher than it was a year ago, record low unemployment, UAL has a record-breaking quarter... Maybe a real one is coming, but if this is what a recession looks like, I welcome it.

Until the Biden administration no one ever argued that the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

FedEx
 

As of September 2022 through May 2025 FedEx is slated to take delivery of 42 aircraft. That’s around 550 pilots when considering the permanent parking of the last 9 MD10s at the end of this year. Plus about 200 pilots per year retiring, so that’s about 1,000 pilots they need to hire in the next 30 months to cover for retirements and aircraft deliveries. They are just pausing hiring until February when they’ll start calling in the 150 pilots swimming in the pool.

Exactly this.

It has always been the textbook definition of a recession.

Except that simply isn’t true. I specifically remember having this discussion in undergrad (finance) in 1994 and again in grad school (MBA at at top 15 school) in 2015. There has never been an agreed upon definition of a recession by the NBER regardless of what partisan politics you attempt to interject.

The S&P is down nearly 20% from a year ago. GDP growth after two consecutive quarters of retraction… no one should welcome these things.

“In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.”

Source - https://www.forbes.com/advisor/inves...s-a-recession/

“Top 15”….

2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP was recession until we re-defined it. S and P is higher??? Please put down your crack pipe. Look at the bond market yield curve for the 10 year and 2 year. They are INVERTED. This has happened in the recent past 4 times.

1. 1987 crash
2. Dot Com bubble/ 9/11
3. Housing Credit Crisis
4. NOW

I don't think you want to welcome what is likely coming sir. As far as FEDEX goes, your guess is as good as mine. Looks to be a rocky road ahead through my eyes.

I liked Regan's definition:

Recession: When your neighbor loses their job.

Depression: When you lose your job.

FedEx
 

Academic elites, enough said. They can literally argue any side of any topic.

Just look up the definition of recession or to recede. Then it will make total common sense why it’s never been argued amongst the populace that two consecutive quarters of negative (-) GDP is a recession. Because it can’t be said the economy has receded unless it happens at least twice in a row.

Why is this even a big dea now?

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

4.3 % GDPnow

labor market stable ex silicon valley

gas prices falling

consumer spending strong

household balance sheets relatively strong compared to prior downturns

household debt servicing historically cheap (ie my 3% mortgage rate)

Real time rent/ housing indexes tanking (big component of the inflated lagging CPI index) cooler inflation reads coming

Fed whispering of an end to rapid interest rate hikes

Everyone and their mother predicting doom and gloom, most predicted “recession coming” ever? Meanwhile we climb the wall of worry next few years.

Setting up for a smooth landing after all?

lets see

The recession will not likely be a travel recession. Airlines that can get pilots will do well in 2023.

The fight isn’t really about whether this qualifies as a recession. If you have two quarters of GDP shrinkage, it’s a recession as traditionally defined. The fight is about whether it matters. Historically, recession has been strongly correlated with a shrinking labor market. People who lose their jobs don’t pay bills. People afraid of losing their jobs don’t buy stuff. That causes further GDP shrinkage. It’s a bad situation. (See the Regan definition, which is simplistic, but actually penetrates quickly to the heart of the issue.)

This recession has been accompanied by a robust job market. So if GDP is down a little, but most everyone who wants to work can get a job, why do we care?

Yeah, the market is down, but US stock holdings are overwhelmingly concentrated in the top 10% of households, who have enough money that an unrealized loss in their stock holdings isn’t going to materially impact spending behavior.

We worry about recession not because GDP itself fundamentally matters, but because it has been correlated with bad real world outcomes for normal households. If people who want jobs have them, a small recession isn’t the worst thing.

The only reason anyone in this thread is talking about recession is because a couple of knuckleheads here couldn’t help themselves and quipped the latest spin & invented grievance from their favorite yokelydokely news.

Let’s move on. FedEx will be just fine. We will be just fine. Find a hobby outside of social media and shouting at your TV.

Let's hope you are correct sir. Some of us like to be prepared for unforeseen events though. Carry on.

My post was directed at the alarmists that started into politics, further derailing what is already a terrible thread. That has nothing to do with preparing or making smart decisions. In any event, as you said, carry on.

Being scared about a company that is coming off a recent global record shipping with new record high competition due to a rare pandemic that created the best possible economic conditions for them, the likes of which will never be repeated + following a years old plan to park old planes and take deliveries of new ones + following annual trends to stop training during the busiest time of the season is like being scared of seeing the sun go down. Yes it has happened every day since the first commercial pilot's great great great ancestor crawled out of the primordial swamp and complained about work rules, yes it is easily predictable, yes it has always come back the next day, BUT HOLY **** WHAT HAPPENS IF THE SUN DOESN'T COME BACK IN THE MORNING?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

First, why is this on a UA thread? Secondly, since when did cargo and passenger airlines track the same business trajectory? It’s as if the last 15-20 years has been forgotten. Numerous times in that period the lines never crossed. Just the last 3 years would say they have very little correlation.

FedEx
 

Reread his post. The reason why he posted this here is obvious. He said it on the post. And he is a United pilot. Sometimes cargo has been a leading indicator of the broader economy. Maybe not this time? Which is probably why he was asking for other’s opinion.

Gotta say, I LOL’d when I read this 🤣