Has United peaked yet?
 

I saw on another board that Delta hasn't peaked yet, despite hiring since 2015 and with all their current retirements. It was said that it was just the beginning over there for pilot hiring, that the average for the next nine years is expected to be 500 pilots. Also, that the downslope there doesn't start until 2034, but also that it's only going to get worse for pilot hiring from here on out.

What's the outlook for United?

lots of retirements, and loads of hiring.

Delta is going to hire the least, which means the least progression seniority wise for you.

United is second best in terms of your future seniority. Lots of hiring going to happen to staff for UA Next.

AA is probably the best place to be for seniority. The have the oldest pilot group with the most retirements.

I honestly don’t foresee hiring to stay this way. With everything overseas it’s just a matter of time before it spills out of the region. Hope I’m wrong.

The mix of hiring due to retirement vs growth is the uncertainty

65th birthdays per year haven’t peaked for anyone although 2020 might have been peak for actual retirements

Delta has hired over half its seniority list since 2015 my buddy there says, maybe validate with other delta people but seems accurate.

Like others have said lots of retirements, but beyond that I think there’s a lot of growth being fueled by the regionals reduction in lift. They won’t be gone but they are getting smaller. Gate availability in places like ORD makes mainline aircraft a priority, I think if Boeing could deliver faster things would escalate even more.

no one knows how their career will go till you set the brake ln your last flight. Jump in and swim strong !

Delta is planning to hire well over 1000/yr for the rest of this decade. So, if you’re relatively young, there’s still plenty of movement to be had here. Our retirements may recede some after this decade but they go back up in force by the early 2040s.

Retirements over the next 6 years. Delta definitely has peaked for retirements. According to the legacy profile page:Delta 3009

United 3698

American 4863

Starting in 2026 UAL will have over 500 retirements per year and won’t go below 500 again until 2032. It’s my belief that it doesn’t matter if you go to DAL, UAL or AMR. You will have a great career at any of them.

Growth is the big question!

In any case it will be better to be hired today than next month or next year. Was it better to be hired a year ago? Of course, but it isn't time to give up and stay put.

Possible exception: You are over 50 and already making $300k+ with 15%+ 401k contributions. Otherwise, come on in, the water is fine. Even a 50 year old will be more than halfway up the seniority list before retirement.

Fleets NB/WB/TTL (Orders NB/WB/TTL) Age
AAL: 820/126/946 (137/30/167) 12.8 years
DAL: 778/169/947 (279/32/311) 15.0 years
UAL: 704/220/924 (586/150/736) 16.3 years (*45 A350 orders not included)