So...how many will come back?
 

At first I figured the recall would be quick and go senior, but now I'm beginning to wonder and here's why:

-The 209 above the most senior furloughee are probably pretty senior, some of them being widebody captains or FOs. I just don't see many, if only a few wanting to sit reserve on a 737.

-All the two timers I have talked to are very wary of hanging their cans out to dry for a third time with the economy seesawing like it is.

-Did I read the Recall FAQs right or must the military guys be released outright so they can come back and fly full time? Seems like they will have to bypass if unable...perhaps I don't understand that relationship fully.

I see the bypass ratio a little higher than previously thought. Perhaps 4-5 to 1? Any thoughts or corrections in flawed thinking.

Devil is always in the details.

The reasons and situations that prompted the senior furloughs could have changed for many. As to sitting 737 reserve at CAL, that is surely a CON but remember, those folks will return at their last UAL pay rate which is a PRO. If their personal situation changed, the offer could certainly be an option. If things didn't work out so well with the current economy and you got an offer, with health benefits, etc., to go to CAL (granted pulling guppy reserve) but making 767 Capt pay (albeit too low of a pay rate), you might opt for it. Just sayin.

I know the military affairs committee is looking at the issue as it relates to the USERRA laws. Some definite "gray areas" here from what I understand but far from an expert.

One kudo to the process with the approach that was adopted for the Guam issue. Have no idea what the process was to get to the current answer but it seems like a reasonable approach. Yeah, it'll be a hiring out of seniority in some respects to fill the Guam slots, but other than a little delay, those that want to go to CAL (but not Guam) will not have to worry about the Guam slot and get their seniority restored above a more junior furlough/new hire once they go active at CAL if I read it correctly.

I think your "guestimate" is probably a good one but only time will tell. Some are projecting 10:1 which may be a little high.

Frats,
Lee

Solid thoughts there Lee. Thanks.

Last I heard they had called 65 and 5 had said yes. keep in mind that the calls are not official and the only thing that matters is how many actually say yes on the CO paperwork that were mailed to the first 100 on the list. These guys and gals have until the end of August to send their stuff back to CO. We will know better after Sept. 1st. they are only filling the first 2 or 4 classes right now.

I have 402 ahead of me and I'm not volunteering for Guam but hoping to get a call for a Jan or Feb class. Best of luck to all.

They way I read it is out of 1021 recall offers, only 209 have accepted. 209/1021=20%
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AA Recall numbers from the APA Website.

How close to these AA percentages will the CAL hiring opportunity show?

I am thinking about 40% overall. Of course, the 209 Volunteers will be much higher. What do you think?

Damn hard to say, but if anybody is getting numbers then post them here so we can at least get an idea how it's progressing.

Regardin the 209 Volunteers I just wonder how many would want to come back to sit 737 reserve even at their old pay?

What happens with mil situation is even bigger. That's what 40-45% of our guys?

Id say the ratio will shrink big time when you get to involuntaries but I'd still stick with 4-5/1 for reasons above.

Again, if somebody is getting good numbers let us know.

I am one of the 209. At first I would not have considered coming back but then the Guam deal popped up. I did think about it, but bypassed. If it wasn't such a paycut, I might have thought about it more. Guam is a nice place. When I left I was a bus left seater, and i think I could be the bottom guy doing the same if I was still at UAL.

I was working in Vietnam before I came to China a year ago. There were 4 or 5 UAL FO's, and 2 Capts. I doubt the other Captain will come back, and I am not sure about the FO's either. Commuting to reserve in EWR, or moving to Guam in this economy and then getting furloughed again? And, they would be taking a 40% paycut to what they are making at VAC. I would guess that would be almost 100% bypass. Maybe one will come back.

Sent from sunny Sanya, Hainan Island, PRC

I still think it will be 10:1 ratio. Then about 30% will return to UAL when the smoke clears from the merger and new contract.

I'm waaaayy down the list, but I don't think I would go back to CAL and their abusive reserve rules. I will probably come back once the JCBA is complete, or UAL side recalls.

I guess 4:1 FWIW (probably not worth anything). I'm almost 900 down the list (6/2000). Not sure what I would do yet - don't think I'll need to worry about that for awhile...