Let's Clarify Some Speculation at UAL
 

So here are some of the crew room and jumpseat arguements I've heard lately about Age 65'rs, recalls and pre 12-12-12 loss from the seniority list at UAL.

-There are hundreds of guys at the very top who have hundreds of hours of sick time built up and won't leave those hours on the table and will sick out the last few months till 12-12-12.

Ok, so I wonder about this one. Is the speculation true there are so many and they will do just that or is there a caveat here many are missing about sick time and are many just blowing up the numbers?

-CAL is going to have a need for 400 guys on the next system bid in January.

This one seems to be persistent around Houston these days. Not sure why and how a huge number could suddenly pop up, but I plead ignorance on the matter and wonder if somebody can address this one with better intel.

-There are a big number of guys ready to punch out, but are waiting to see if anything comes out of a contract which many speculate should be in hand by spring next year.

That makes sense, but what really are the chances of a contract in hand by spring and it seems unrealistic UAL is going to offer any fat retro or equity carrots in the contract unless they are forced somehow.

-The recall ratio will be as high as American, 9-10 to 1 mainly due guys staying military and two time furloughees concerned about quitting what they have in a shaky economy. Many will wait for the list to start moving in 2013.

Again, this makes sense. I definitely don't see many of 209 voluntaries coming back as they probably took it for good reasons. How many mil guys do we have on average at UAL? 40-45%? The CAL "job offer" stated these guys have to be free of committment to accept the offer. Not sure that is going to work and even if it's legal.

Not a expert by any means, but guessing the bypass will be more aorund 4-5 to 1 in the end. Should have some data in early Sept as Ted and Todd figure out the response. Should be interesting.

I'm no bright bulb thats for sure, but thats just some consistent chatter lately. Comments? Corrections?

"There are many guys waiting to punch out"

that is the one that I can say has legs. I fly everyday with guys that talk about what the Delta guys got. They want something, not sure what to call it (retro, stock options, bonus, buyout, etc) but do feel a big paycheck in some form is sitting around the corner and are willing to wait for it.

Are these the same hacks that consistently told me "even with the age 60 increase I wont fly past 60"?

How many retirements have we had in the last 3.5 years?

These guys will fly to the bitter end.

ABSOLUTELY true. Same BS that ALPA tried to pass over on us when they flip flopped to support the age change. I remember the article well saying that the "Blue Ribbon" panel had determined that most pilots would go out at 62 when their social security kicked in. I laughed at that one. Aaaannnndddd.... no one left. Well, DUH. And no one is going to leave early. The ONLY thing I could see is guys emptying their sick bank before they retire. THAT one makes sense.

Either way, next year things will change most likely. There should be a contract, although it may take a strike to get it. The spool up for 12/12/12 retirements will have to begin by Spring or early Summer. The guys holding out for a lump sum will bail as soon as they are eligible. Work rule improvements will require more pilots along with FAA rest rule changes. The guys going to CO that would prefer a United domicile will bail at the first chance which will require a training event at United along with one at CO to fill their vacancy. What am I missing?

One of the last items mentioned in the company's contract "offer" that was published last month is a $200,000 buyout for early retirements. It didn't state what the conditions of that buyout are, but I suspect that a lot of senior guys will be hanging around until a contract is signed so they can get their 200k (if it is including in a real TA) plus retro.

It was 250K and the JCBA had to be signed and the SLI completed by 10/1/2011.

I stand corrected, it was $250K. You are wrong about the date, however. The only stipulation is that the contract and SLI are completed prior to obtaining a Single operating certificate.

My crystal ball says neither will happen.....how's that?:cool:

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Any pilot who believes he/she will receive 1 dime in "RETRO' is far removed from reality. Might be some sort of "SIGNING BONUS" maybe 50k for seniors and 25k for junior pilots, MAYBE. Can't see it in the company plan to ever give a contract, even more importantly can't see how most don't have a clue about what management really does. "PROTECT THEIR OWN INTEREST"

I think we have the same crystal ball.

Please define "Jr" pilot at UAL? 20 year seniority and less maybe?

JR vs SR
 

Hoss,

Sr = top 1/3
Jr = bottom 1/3
This includes the combined group

United has consistently said that have an excess of pilots. I have heard numbers thrown around but lets say 200-300 currently. Throw into the mix the parking of UAL aircraft in 2012. They could exchange a UAL 757 for every guppy that comes on line at CAL. They could park other UAL aircraft for the 787s that arrive at CAL. This translates into a greater excess of UAL pilots.

United might not furlough, but I would not expect any upward movement since it might take up to 2014 to reign in the excess of UAL pilot population.

Is parking a/c and/or tranfering that much flying even allowed by the TPA ? If so, shame on ALPA! Any thoughts?

Here's a thought. UAL management will bend over backward to hose labor, particularly pilot labor. Plan on more hosing.

James is planning on getting bent over.

I understand the dim view Special, and lets hope your not right although I'd hedge my bets and head overseas to make some real dough just in case.

As an anti-thesis, consider this:

-Other majors are flying around a whole bunch of aircraft they could have parked a long time ago, but they are still flying them because (just a guess) they are paid for mainly or their leases are low and most importantly they are full!
The American consumer (so far) has been surprisingly resilient with travel even as the flat economy teeters on the edge of a double dip. IATA forecasts are strong, despite the slowdown. Bottom line, those airplanes are still there for a reason and I don't think most majors park full airplanes at these ticket prices (let's not forget all the fees and falling fuel prices, albeit temporary) unless the bottom just falls out of demand or.....(wait for it), your getting ready for a merger!:eek:

-I think the same is with the United crews. We've heard about the excess, but thats been going on since the furlough hasn't it? If they're so tight on the hiring at the CAL side then I find it hard to believe the bean counters have one extra pilot than they think is necessary given the propensity of United to furlough at the drop of a hat. The extra fat is there for a reason...what that is I don't know but I do know, if some accountant thought your snotty jet flying butt was expendable, you'd get a nasty FedEx the next day.

-The guys at the top are expensive! Medical, salary (despite the huge cut in their minds at least). Are you telling me they'd rather keep them around versus replacing them with some fit as a fiddle green horn at $35 an hour? I think they want retirements as soon as they can get them and that means movement. Even under your 2014 scenario, my bet is Mother U offers more buyouts especially if a contract goes in that ups all those -400 drivin multi millionaire's pay (tic):D.

At least that's a current theory. Subject to change.

Another restraint mgmt has is the ratio of express to mainline.
We are close to the domestic cap, if that drops they have to start paring RJ's.

On the UAL side, 'early' retirements are running a littlle less than 1/month. Zero to 3 in any given month. A lot of months with zero retirements. UAL's SSC minutes have retirements listed.

Published?
This is what we've got on UALALPO's website Q&A:
I'll detail lead turning the training pipeline later in this post but if they aren't recalling Jan 2012 and hiring by April 2012, they're going to get behind the 8 ball very quickly.
I find it hard to believe that the company would offer a lump sum. That would increase their training pipeline problems. See below.

You're not taking into account the required training pipeline once we get regular retirements again.
CAL/UAL is looking at ~40 retirements/month. Assume 20/side.
Assume 4 training events/retirement (conservative)
Assume 3 months from start of training to end of line check.
20 x 4 x 3 = 240 pilots in the training pipeline.
Add in PIs - another 300 or so.
So you're looking at a need for ~1100 pilots on both sides just to fill the training pipeline. And that's a very lowball number.

How much lead turning's required to get the pipeline going?
Let's assume all retiring pilots have 600 hours in their sick bank and burn all of it at the end. That's not going to happen but this assumption won't matter once we're past Dec 2012 as there will be a fairly consistent average monthly retirement rate. So let's say that you don't get any use out of retiring pilots in the last 6 months prior to retirement. That puts the leading edge of retirements at June 2012.
Lead turning June 2012 retirements means that the training pipeline has to be running 240 pilots no later than March 2012.
Add in another couple of months to spool up a large pool of PIs. We're now at Jan 2012.

I've never spoken to Jeff Nooger or anyone else on the SSC but they should be well aware of how many bodies and lead turn time for the training pipeline.
If the company tries to limp through summer 2012 without a training pipeline up and running full speed, they will likely be in the hole for several years because they will need newhires just to fill the pipeline; we're not going to see every furloughee return immediately after recall.

Are you sure about being close to the cap on outsourced flying? I was jumping up and down a few years ago, giving the ALPO reps an earful because block hour numbers/ratios on C2003 were blank for several years. And when the ratios finally got filled, I looked at the numbers and got even more angry - it allowed for sharp mainline block hour reductions coupled with additional outsourcing.

On the bright side, every airline is going to have to fire up their training pipelines. This will cause a sudden drop in 'available' pilots and decimate the ranks of our regional partners. Management will be forced to upguage and reduce frequency on some routes because of this. Whether or not it's a temporary condition is yet to be seen. I remember Bob Crandall stating that there never was and never will be a pilot shortage - they simply move minimum requirements up or down to ensure a sufficient supply of pilots.


Looking at the big picture, it may be the line pilot's best interest to drag contract negotiations through summer 2012, as pilot leverage will increase considerably. However, all pilots better plan on getting blamed for flight cancellations in summer 2012.

I made the mistake of taking a look at C2003 rewrite ... where's my blood pressure medicine?

1-C-1-d Number of Block Hours of Feeder Flying: In each calendar year, the number of scheduled block hours of Feeder Flying may not exceed the number of scheduled block hours of Company Flying.

I can't find regional block hours but I looked at July's ASMs for CAL/UAL. Regional flying is only ~10% of total ASMs. I don't think we're anywhere close to maximum regional block hours. United Continental Holdings, Inc. - Investor Relations - News

Section 1-F-1. Block Hours Guarantee: 1.689 million hours.
1-F-2-a. Substantial economic change. Allows company to reduce block hours if our Operating Margin is below 8.1%. 1% reduction in block hours for each 1% decrease in Operating Margin.
July 2011 SSC report. May block hours flown: 120,919:11. Multiply by 12: 1,451,030:12.
I seriously doubt that we're running a negative Operating Margin. I'd say that we're already well below mainline block hour guarantees.