Where are the "official" acceptance numbers?
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Aeronca Champ
Posts: 120
Where are the "official" acceptance numbers?
I would like to know... Supposedly had to be postmarked by the 1st; given a week for snail mail, numbers should be released by UNICAL and ALPA! Is there a contact besides Todd, maybe at the Co. to get some info.?
#2
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Posts: 55
I agree, some solid numbers would be nice. Speculating and rumors are fun, but cold reality is sobering. It wouldn't be purely solid as those who may have shown interest in their response, still could pull out before class starts in Nov, Dec, Jan... But it would give those of us farther down the list an idea of where things lie.
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Posts: 400
There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Aeronca Champ
Posts: 120
There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Corporate Limo Captain
Posts: 102
There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.
So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.
Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.
I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.
So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?
Here is a recent answer from ALPA:
Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).
Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....
If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.
The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
#6
#8
Got the phone call 2 weeks ago, I've been told the folks in IAH weren't on the same page as the Wacker Dr. folks on timing. The calls went out well before any letters were sent out.
#10
70/30 yes........partly depends on how flexible they are with class dates. Based on the GUM letter, it sounds like they will work with you. I can't go until mid Dec. at the earliest.
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