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Where are the "official" acceptance numbers?

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Where are the "official" acceptance numbers?

Old 09-09-2011, 09:01 AM
  #1  
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Default Where are the "official" acceptance numbers?

I would like to know... Supposedly had to be postmarked by the 1st; given a week for snail mail, numbers should be released by UNICAL and ALPA! Is there a contact besides Todd, maybe at the Co. to get some info.?
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Old 09-09-2011, 09:09 AM
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I agree, some solid numbers would be nice. Speculating and rumors are fun, but cold reality is sobering. It wouldn't be purely solid as those who may have shown interest in their response, still could pull out before class starts in Nov, Dec, Jan... But it would give those of us farther down the list an idea of where things lie.
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:08 PM
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There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".

However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.

So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.

Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.

I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.

So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?

Here is a recent answer from ALPA:

Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).

Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....

If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.

The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
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Old 09-09-2011, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by dvhighdrive88 View Post
There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".

However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.

So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.

Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.

I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.

So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?

Here is a recent answer from ALPA:

Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).

Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....

If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.

The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
This is exactly why they should be releasing some official numbers... It is overdue!
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Old 09-09-2011, 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by dvhighdrive88 View Post
There has been no "official" communication regarding the acceptance and bypass numbers from the initial people called for the "recall".

However, several people have reoprted that Todd C. has communicated to them that they went down to 123 of the 1437 to fill the first two classes of 24 total (including 8 Guam volunteers). Simple math shows thats a 5.125 to 1 bypass ratio.

So if they plan on calling 178 for class eventually, despite having 201 vacancies, theoretically they could get to the 912th guy to fill the classes using the current 5.125 to 1 ratio.

Now, as we all know there will be variations in the acceptance ratio as you cross military committed groups and people who have nothing going on and have nothing to loose by coming back. Where those variations lie is anyone's guess at this point.

I still think the consensus of 3.5 to 4.5 to 1 will prove to be accurate in the long run, so that makes your range 623 to 801 down the list.

So this begs the question: How do I know where I am on the list?

Here is a recent answer from ALPA:

Where am I on the Furlough List?
Answer: The junior man on property is seniority number 6442, however in your calculations you must take into consideration that there are 209 pilots senior to the junior man on property that are on furlough status (voluntarily).

Given this, what you do is take your seniority number from the recent list, subtract 6442 from that and add 209. Keep in mind the accuracy of that changes as people medical our retire etc....

If my math or thinking is flawed, please let me know.

The short answer is, this is speculation until something "official" comes out, but the best we got.
According to Ted, the classes were filled with numbers 1-100 minus 4 GUM volunteers. The 4 volunteers came between 101-123. Letters have gone out to the next 101-200 and he is still awaiting on the CAL folks to get him the final numbers to be sure he gives us accurate information.
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Old 09-09-2011, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by iadfo View Post
Letters have gone out to the next 101-200 and he is still awaiting on the CAL folks to get him the final numbers to be sure he gives us accurate information.
#129 and no letter yet for those keeping track.
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Old 09-10-2011, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by guppyflyer View Post
#129 and no letter yet for those keeping track.
Interesting, thanks for the info. Did you get a phone call? I was told that the calls were made last week.
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Old 09-10-2011, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by iadfo View Post
Interesting, thanks for the info. Did you get a phone call? I was told that the calls were made last week.
Got the phone call 2 weeks ago, I've been told the folks in IAH weren't on the same page as the Wacker Dr. folks on timing. The calls went out well before any letters were sent out.
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Old 09-10-2011, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by guppyflyer View Post
#129 and no letter yet for those keeping track.
I was told by Ted that the letters will go out this week. Are you taking the job offer? Thanks for the update.
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Old 09-10-2011, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by DR Pilot View Post
I was told by Ted that the letters will go out this week. Are you taking the job offer? Thanks for the update.
70/30 yes........partly depends on how flexible they are with class dates. Based on the GUM letter, it sounds like they will work with you. I can't go until mid Dec. at the earliest.
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