When will bidding mania begin?
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 907
When will bidding mania begin?
Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?
I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.
Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."
The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.
base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over
EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over
IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over
CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over
ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under
DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under
SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under
LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under
IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under
total----1470-----------------------------------------14026
So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.
I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.
Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.
So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?
I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.
Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."
The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.
base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over
EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over
IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over
CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over
ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under
DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under
SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under
LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under
IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under
total----1470-----------------------------------------14026
So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.
I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.
Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.
So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?
#3
Flight Ops update, 13 Sept
And I don't think it will be a "mania." We can only bid into vacancies and from what I've heard of the LUAL bidding process those vacancies don't come in hundreds at a time like they did at LCAL. I also think they'll proceed slowly to avoid displacements because of the multiple training cycles it can cause.
However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.
"I know many pilots are wondering about the upcoming combined vacancy bid. While I don't have exact dates for you yet, you can expect to see more details about the combined process (instructions for making your selections in CCS, etc.) as soon as next week. We will let you know when the vacancy bid process will begin, and when to expect the award to be published. We anticipate that will be sometime in early October."
However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.
Last edited by APC225; 09-16-2013 at 11:45 AM.
#5
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 3,071
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 907
Flight Ops update, 13 Sept
And I don't think it will be a "mania." We can only bid into vacancies and from what I've heard of the LUAL bidding process those vacancies don't come in hundreds at a time like they did at LCAL. I also think they'll proceed slowly to avoid displacements because of the multiple training cycles it can cause.
However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.
And I don't think it will be a "mania." We can only bid into vacancies and from what I've heard of the LUAL bidding process those vacancies don't come in hundreds at a time like they did at LCAL. I also think they'll proceed slowly to avoid displacements because of the multiple training cycles it can cause.
However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.
#8
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2010
Position: next to chronic complainers...
Posts: 364
The number of vacancies will also depends on equipment deployments and shifting, there may be a surprising number of vacancies in previous L-UAL bases like SFO, IAD and LAX where B737 will be deployed on a mass scale.
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: FO
Posts: 424
Question: can the post-2010 "new hires" (off-the-street folks) bid to the 747 or are they considered CAL and subject to the 5-yr fence? Yes, I know we are so junior that it won't matter, but I am thinking theoretically here.
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 263
Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?
I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.
Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."
The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.
base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over
EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over
IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over
CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over
ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under
DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under
SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under
LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under
IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under
total----1470-----------------------------------------14026
So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.
I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.
Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.
So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?
I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.
Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."
The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.
base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over
EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over
IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over
CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over
ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under
DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under
SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under
LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under
IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under
total----1470-----------------------------------------14026
So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.
I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.
Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.
So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?
That breakdown jives with the rumors I have heard from a "special assignment" pilot working at Willis.
DEN, ORD, SFO grow the 737 positions. More Airbuses for IAH, as 737s get redeployed. Possibly a 737 base IAD Haven't heard anything on the 787 but the writing on the wall looks like LAX is inevitable.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
vagabond
Hangar Talk
0
02-20-2007 02:16 PM
Southerncowboyz
Major
2
10-31-2006 07:53 PM