Yes and NO

Remember, that most applicants apply to multiple airlines. When they get hired they may or may not be revoking their application at other airlines.

Each airline could have 13,000 applications, but it is a safe assumption that the same 13,000 (plus or minus) that applied at UAL, also applied at DAL, etc, etc.

^^+10-13,000.

My guess is at some point in the near future there will be a pilot shortage - the ATP rule for one and the extreme cost for a civilian to get the training. There will always be a steady supply of highly qualified military pilots but at some point, that supply will be inadequate either because the military might increase commitments or there will be wars and they won't be leaving the service. The airlines will turn to the FAA and ask for relief on the ATP rule and thus open up the pipeline from the bottom up (Regionals to Majors).

There might be an overall pilot shortage, but United will not have a problem hiring pilots. United will just hire them from the regionals, military, overseas, and other pilots who have ATPs, creating shortages in those area.

But United doesn't have a pilot shortage.

This video explains exactly how many pilots there are out there and how many jobs they are competing for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHKanuyeawc

FWIW, my impression on the first year pay raise rumor was that it's kind of a stop-gap measure to stay relevant in attracting talent. Yes, we all realize there are 10k+ apps out there, but maybe it's the top 5% of those that all the legacies want (or at least want to have the option to hire).

Delta and American have made improvements in their respective contracts, and although United's contract isn't inferior yet, I think lagging behind in profits and remnants of the merger stagnation make it a tough call for the top prospects applying to all three legacies. This effectively would be a way of sweetening the pot without a full blown contract negotiation (especially if in a few years management isn't keen on negotiating quickly).

Purely a theory though

While you're at it, don't take a direct going westbound when on an optimized wind route! Sabre isn't so bad. Much better than that crap Phoenix put out.

Correct, it's closer to 13,000 applications on file now. That's straight from management at DENTK last December.

Right. But some guys can't see past that. They just take worse case scenario (i.e. they have apps in everywhere) and then they assume one the pool is depleted there are no more pilots. The Club of Rome said (in the 1970s) we would be out of oil worldwide by 2010 using the same logic. Of course we kept finding more oil, faster than we were using it.

But despite having hired 1,000 off the street in the last few years, plus removing another 400 by interviewing and not hiring them, the number of applicants has grown.

There may be an "overall" pilot shortage at some point in the future, but it won't affect United's hiring. Like the video explained, there are more than enough pilots, just not enough to fly for $18,000 a year starting pay. I don't blame them, they are certainly worth more than that.

There are 4 true majors. United, American, Delta, and SWA. Those 4 are the ones everyone is trying to get to. Yes there are other good airline jobs, but these are really the ones at the top of the list for most pilots out there.

It will be interesting to see what happens at the regionals over the next few years though.

FedEx, UPS and Alaska combined are roughly equivalent to one more in term of size.

No question. Lots of guys want to go there too. Also good jobs. They would also be immune to a pilot shortage. Now the other 100 airlines and air companies out there, not so much.