Elephant in the Room...
 

After many months of UCH Stock being in the $60s, it has fallen steadily over the last five days; losing 15-20% in that time.

The problems here are well known, and largely unchanged.

Which is why I don't get it. The stock was HIGH with the same problems.

What's changed? I've noticed an inverse reaction to oil prices (oil goes up, so does our stock; you'd expect the opposite, but oil-biz travel seems to be the reason).

I've noticed loads are slightly less full, but not much. We stay on-par with AA and SWA for arrival time; aircraft damage is down, we keep getting "more efficient" aircraft, although pax satisfaction is a yo-yo.

Ideas?

Pretty easy to explain, actually.

Virtually the entire US airline sector tanked last week out of fears that "capacity restraint" has gone out the window and airlines are starting to plan for growth and fight over market share and that margins will get squeezed as a result.

SWA started it with their announcement of larger growth plans for 2016 then the CEO of AA threw a bucket of gas on the fire in his public comments. On Wednesday alone, nearly $12B of airline market cap vaporized according to one analyst.

If it's an irrational over-reaction by the "market" then it's a great time to pick up some shares. If it's not, the ride's gonna get bumpy. Again.

Agreed. The combo of oil and the capacity mumbo jumbo has roiled the water.

Oil however, remains at very very low prices as far as the airlines are concerned and loads and yields are very good. Hell, they can make money with oil at 100, they can sure as hell make it now and as oil climbs. I'm still in.

This, over reaction to news. UAL is still rated a buy with a target price median in the mid-80's.

Why would airline pilots intentionally buy stock in their own airline. I've never understood this. Something about "eggs" and a "basket" comes to mind. Why buy stocks in airlines at all. The historical return is rotten.

To make money.

Several recent articles about being too restrictive regarding capacity, regional feed problems, oil fears etc. mix on wall street of guys saying stocks will be good and others saying stocks will fall.

It's all the beauty of the stock market, sometimes you're right and sometimes your wrong, hopefully you're right an extra 6+% of the time to grow your funds!

Which is exactly why many were opposed to the ill-fated ESOP plan. :(

I don't own any airline stock...just use it as a barometer (Kollsman Window?) of where my career might be going.

I don't think anyone here was advocating such a thing. I'm personally in index funds only.