Originally Posted by Tank21 (Post 1935423)

Worth a shot asking considering if the displacement was not of you own doing...

Originally Posted by sweptback (Post 1935470)

What industry demotes you then continues to pay you at your old salary?

Originally Posted by Fatty 5416 (Post 1935401)

As a new hire, I'm hanging this timeline on my toolbox in the garage. It is probably the nearest to reality I've heard yet. I'll revisit when I'm 55.



Sounds like "you'll be in F-35's as a Captain"........

Originally Posted by horrido27 (Post 1935158)

Thanks for the good laugh. Needed it after the last few days.

So.. Hired in '07 when we had 2 year upgrades (an anomaly). Currently 10100ish on the seniority list. Junior Capt is 8700ish. I'm roughly 1400 pilots away from most Junior Captain.
Based on 350 (senior) retirements a year.. I COULD see Captain in 4-5 years. [12yrs to Capt]
Reality-
Between now and then.. age 67 will probably happen. A major conflict somewhere in the globe will probably happen, and some sort of worldwide economical downturn will probably happen.

Figure out when you will be roughly 67% on the list. Only then can you actually plan on holding a Captain Bid that will probably raise your pay while lowering you QoL.*

It's a fun game to play. And Management will use it come Contract 2020 to lure FO's into voting YES. But the reality is.. don't plan on being a Captain for quiet a while.

Always
Motch

*IF we were to place an order for the CS100 or Eseries aircraft we will probably see 2-3 year Captains.
Based on 2016 payrates- you are looking at payrates between $128 - $139 for 2-12yrs.
Almost no pilot who will be on a longevity over 5 years will switch (except for the odd pilot who needs to wear 4 stripes, or is betting on overnights at home!)
And to bring it home- IF we see these aircraft sometime next year, it would be at least an $8 an hour paycut.. and more likely $45 an hour, for me and my fellow 07 hires.

On the other hand, someone hired during the beginning of the wave will be on 3-5 year pay. For them, it could be a slight raise.
That being said. Anyone hired this year or on will probably need more than 5 years to hold a worthwhile Capt Seat.
Just my opinion~

Originally Posted by Mitch Rapp05 (Post 1935711)

I think this is a good analysis for the bulk of pilots. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few fringe 5 year CA in the next 5 or so years. Just look at how junior 787 went in SFO. Perhaps there will be upgrades available in a base and an airplane that most of us don't want and it will trickle down to a junior pilot...similar to the current 787 situation. Who knows. But I'm glad that we're are speculating on this and not furloughs.

Originally Posted by Probe (Post 1935757)

Furloughs start with...........displacements.

Originally Posted by pilotgolfer (Post 1935769)

But they will just go back to express and claim they were never furloughed. :D

Originally Posted by pilotgolfer (Post 1935769)

But they will just go back to express and claim they were never furloughed. :D