LOL.. here we go again. The 'magical' quick Capt upgrades and speculations.

As a '07 hire who is about 9800 on the seniority list, I don't expect to see Captain for another year or two. And that will then be bottom of the list!

Reality is, the junior Capt on this bid was 9658 out of SFO (737) and the junior Capt in EWR is currently 8707. There are also a TON of FO's Senior to them, just waiting to hold Capt at a better relative seniority than 100%.

Keep in mind, we are scheduled to hire 700 between now and next July.. Good! We are also retiring/losing @400. Net gain of around 300 pilots which will put our Seniority list at 13000 (maybe). And while the Triple 300er's and new 73's are a good thing, we are also losing some 74's..

'13 hires holding Captain by the end of 2017?! No way.

Always
Motch

PS) where should the line be for percentage of the last Captain? With this bid, 9658 out of 12600 pilots means he's at 76.6% on the list. Always figured you have to be somewhere around the 75% before you can hold Captain.. and then as the most Junior guy, on the smallest airplane at the worst base (with regards to Cost of Living). On Reserve, no weekends off and worst vacation!

PPS) There are about 925 pilots junior to me BEFORE we started hiring off the street... How many were hired in 2010,11 and 12?
Most likely it will be 4-5 years before anyone hired in 2013 sees Captain. Unless of course we order a NSNB aircraft, because of it's low Captain rates.

I know this might be apples to oranges, but your notion of 2013 new hires holding captain by 2017 is a definite no? DAL had Nov 2014 hires get Captain on their January 2016AE(advance entitlement) bid for captains. 14 month captains, we shall see. I trained this individual and their were people junior to him getting Captain bids. Watch and see.

Yeah Apples to oranges. DAL CA pay scale for the 190 is way low. Like pays less than a UAL guppy FO low. That's why it goes crazy junior. Commuting to NYC to fly it as well.

Post merger pilots are 747 FOs now. Its almost certain that with all the Guppy 700s and Baby Busses coming we will see 2013 hires in a Captain seat by the end of 2017.

The 2014 hire at Delta is holding Captain on the md-80. You are correct about NYC

My bad then. I thought it was the 190. 2 yr MD80 CA is crazy. Even in NYC

Lot of variables here.....

1) How many pilots senior to the junior CA are seat locked hard? There has been lots of movement the last few years.

2) How many pilots are still out on furlough? I would bet about 4-500, so the post merger hires are really only 6-700 numbers from upgrade. Unless the furloughs come rushing back in the next 12 months.

3) Historically 1/3 of the pilots bypass upgraded for whatever reason. So theoretically a post merger hire is 4-500 numbers from upgrade.

We may not see the post merger hires upgrade in mass, but i think by the end of next year there will be a handful of 2012-2013 hire CAs at UA.

The 190s were cancelled when they ordered the C Series.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. He was even surprised by the award.

Good question.. how many of them were seat locked beginning 2015 and will be off beginning of 2017? Unknown but there has to be some..
Another good question. But I know this- there are a handful of LUAL pilots friends from my old Guard unit who are still out but will be coming back sometime next year.. all can hold Capt. There must be more like that. I believe the 5 year Mil Leave deal that was part of C2012 will be hitting it's limit next year.. so I will expect a bunch of pilots to return, many who can and will hold Left seat.
True.. but again, 2/3 take it and there are (by my math) a ton of pilots from both sides who were hired in the 2000's that still are FO's. Again, it's a variable that doesn't have a hard number.. but it does mean that before a New Hire (from 2010 and on) will have a shot, those from 2000-8 (from both Legacy's) will need to be offered a shot!
Well, now you're shifting the year. It was about 2013 hires but you are mentioning 2012?!

Reality is-
Company has stated that they plan to hire up to 700 pilots between now and July, 2017.
We know that around 400 pilots will leave our ranks between now and then.
We also know that not all of them are Captains. But lets say 90% are=
So we will lose 360 Captains that need replacing.
The 700 new hires are for retirements AND growth. So we are growing by 300 pilots. But that doesn't mean 300 Captains. Again, lets say 60% are needed as Captains for new (growth) aircraft = 180 Captains.
Total is possibly 540 new Captain awards by next year.

Based on current seniority list and latest captain bid.. by end of next year, you might see the bottom Captain award being around Seniority number 10300 (on todays list).
It's hard to get info from our company website as things aren't updated, but.. I bet that (currently) number 10300 is still a 2007 hire.

Interesting enough, the last two guys from the SLI (LUAL &LCAL) are 10720ish~ Both are (I believe) 2008 hires.

End of next year, the bottom Captain will still be a Legacy Pilot. My .02cents!

Always
Motch

PS) anyone hired after 2008 is still having a great career.. FO line holder on almost any equipment, or widebody reserve (777/787)