Guesstimate?
 

Any wags on profit percentage for this year?

12.3% of 2016 regular earnings is my guess. Slightly less then last year. YTD pretax - no special items we are trakimg a 100M ahead I believe. Remember we started paying income taxes this year so post tax - net earnings way down, but pretax excluding special items almost the same so far first three quarters.

its going to be HUUUGGGEEE!

Believe me. Everybody's talking about it. Repeal and replace. Wall. Lock her up!

8%. 10% at best. We're not doing nearly as well as last year.

Actually first three quarters YTD on a Pre Tax basis we are I believe 100M ahead. Now on a Net profit basis we are way down but that's because all of our loss write offs have been used up and we are paying income tax which we haven't in some time. Hopefully we will continue to track on course on the 4th quarter.

Remember per the UPA our profits sharing is calculated on a pre tax earnings and excludes any special items.

Got it, however Q3 profit was a fraction of last years and per the SEC filing there was close the $70m less in the PS pool YOY.

Good point. Not sure if any other employee group changed profit sharing calculations in 2016 vs 2015, any one know?

The mechanics will be the same this time at 15% basis (got 13% of gross last time) , but for the PS check in Feb 2018 it will be reduced to 5% / 10%

I spent some time reviewing the UPA profit sharing section (language below) and reviewing 2016 & 2015 UAL income statements. Please someone correct me if my math or assumptions are wrong.

As I mentioned previously the biggest difference between 2016 & 2015 is UAL has paid aproximately 35% in income taxes in 2016 and basically none in 2015. But again per UPA pilot profit sharing calculations are based on Pre Tax earnings and excluding special items.

UPA

3-H Profit Sharing 3-H-1 Pilots shall participate in the Company profit sharing plan.

3-H-2 For profit-sharing based on the years 2012 and 2013, the Company profit sharing plan shall be funded with fifteen percent (15%) of pre-tax profit.

3-H-3 For profit-sharing based on the years 2014 and beyond, the Company profit sharing plan shall be funded with ten percent (10%) of pre-tax profit up to a pre-tax margin of six and nine-tenths percent (6.9%) plus twenty percent (20%) of pre-tax profit in excess of a pre-tax margin of six and nine-tenths percent (6.9%).

3-H-4 Special and unusual items shall be excluded from pre-tax profit when making the calculations in Sections 3-H-2 and 3-H-3.


From UAL Income Statements 2016 & 2015 from the Income before Taxes line item.


2016

1Q 494M


2Q 931M


3Q 1,510B.


4Q TBT.





2015

1Q. 511M


2Q. 1,197B


3Q. 1,606B


4Q. 905B

First three quarters YTD. 2,935B (2016) & 3,314B (2015)

I was off on my previous postings but not by that much. YTD we are 379M below 2015 PreTax profits. So I'd guess around 11.5 to 12 percent if we don't blow the 4Q.

Again if I'm missing something please correct me.