DashTrash

There has to be something coming because of the scope choke and were are in a lift deficit for the wide bodies. But there is a little time between now and the time when we lose the lift of the 400s.

CLazarus

I agree, just nothing coming on property prior to next spring. We'll have all of the new -300ERss on line for the 2017 summer peak plus the lift of the -400s. I think it is a pretty slick move to retire the -400s almost immediately after the summer, no need to pay for that international lift over the winter. We'll need more lift on property in time for the summer 2018 peak... unless the economy tanks!

I remember last winter the initial announcement at the Jan earnings call was for 40 -700NGs. About a month later the 25 additional -700NGs and 14 -300ERs was announced. I imagine the more complex deal took extra time to negotiate. Considering the many possible fleet moves being speculated upon, I'd say some complex deals are in the air. Might take awhile to materialize.

horrido27

Or maybe someone is betting that a downturn is coming in 2017 or 2018. Instead of having new aircraft on order, why not use what you have and park/retire what you don't need~

Just my .02 cents
Motch

RJDio

I'm not sure the bet would be a wise one.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-13/small-business-owners-optimism-skyrockets-following-trump-victory

Probe

Lunch. With Staller.

Enjoy!

Grumble

Can Tim Martins come too?

AllenAllert

Wasn't Timmy Martins a stick partner of yours. I think it was Probe that said that is another thread but then again he's been caught in several questionable comments.

Grumble

I was never a Regional guy. Or a viper guy. Or a firefighter.


On a serious note, we can look at the lack of news as a furthering of the current plan. A350's and Maxed out Guppies still inbound.

C11DCA

Not sure there is a lift deficit for this year. We have 21 747's but they are only flying 6 routes, all out of SFO. The 14 777-300er's should be able to cover that flying.

Plus we have 3 787-9's coming this year (latest 787 was delivered on January 6).

Next summer might be a concern but not sure what our 787-9/10 deliveries look like that far in advance as well as what economic conditions will be.

GoCats67

I think the "lift deficit" is for the summer of 2018. My Math says:

Minus 21 747s
Minus 10 777 A's (reconfiguring from intl config to Hawaii/domestic)
Plus 14 777-300s
Plus 5 787s (Jan, Feb, Aug, Dec, Dec)

So, even with the 777-300s be used more hours per day than the 747s, that can't make up for a 12 airplane net decrease on the widebody Intl side.

The numbers are even worse if you consider that 16 of those 19 deliveries will actually be here by this summer, so all the flying the 747s are doing this summer will have to be covered by a combination of only 2 787s coming in December or==and by dropping flying somewhere to free up an airplane (or many airplanes). So something will have to change to make the summer of 2018 work. That something is either more metal, or less routes.

the 787s that are coming in December complete our current firm orders (35 total), but we do have something like 50 options, so I am not sure what that could translate to. then we could also easily get some more 777-300s by the summer of 2018. If you look at the production list:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...eD0/edit#gid=5

you can see that it shows nothing but United and Unknown customers as there listed production slots. So, there is plenty of capacity that Boeing is using to finish out the 777-300 line that hasn't been spoken for yet. If we need another 10 by summer of 2018, I think we could get them on whatever schedule we wanted.