Investor call and fleet speculation
 

I guess we will find out tomorrow if there is any substance to this "rumor" that these guys felt was substantial enough to write an article about...Here's to hoping...

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/unit...-announcement/

Such a stab in the dark that nobody wants to grab author by-line! They forgot to mention the new 787 routes!

I made a bold prediction on orders at the earnings call a few days ago in a different thread. Someone else predicted we would announce nothing.

Last year the open press picked up on the -700 order and 300ER order a day or two prior. This year, not a peep. But I've also noticed Bombardier's stock price go up about 30% since New Years, just like it did before DAL's order.

However, I'm thinking "nothing" may very well win the betting pool after all.

16 773s and 40 777x
50 A321s
50 firm CS100/300 and 75 options to free more 76 seat RJs

And adios to the 350s


It's coming

I'm gonna suspect that's the case.

UAL may very well be developing some significant fleet plans, but the Investor Update released today already includes a 2017 fleet plan. It'd be pretty odd, but not impossible, for a company to have to revise it only a day later.

Thus, I'm thinking we'll be hearing some fleet news....just not quite yet.

re RJs: This part of the company's thinking has perplexed me the last few years. The regionals can barely staff the flying they have already, so how would they handle more? There has got to be a point where the company says enough is enough since they (the regionals) are having problems finding pilots to fulfill the flying they have now...

It occurred to me that the -300ER order from announcement to delivery was around 11 months. So, it is conceivable that anything announced tomorrow would only affect the 2018 fleet plan. Splitting hairs I suppose. I definitely think any additional WB deliveries to fully replace the -400s won't take place until next spring.

I remember you accurately called out the -300ER order with additional -700s last year, so I think your take on the timing of the next announcement is probably a wise one.

Anyways, I cheekily called my prediction "bold" but 'ol Sniper66 gets the award for the "most confident". Eavesdropping in the executive wash room maybe? ;)

I notice on that chart that express will hit the 153 76-seat maximum this year.

I'm going with a dozen more 773's. :D

Very good point about 2017 vs 2018.

I suppose UAL could announce something for later delivery. I was focused on the article suggesting additional 777s for later this year.

Edit: looks like the "slide deck" for today's call is posted on the investor site. No mention of fleet changes or new orders.