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Old 01-01-2018, 06:27 AM
  #1  
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Default Upgrades and Retirements

Looking at the APC profile it says the junior CA is a 2005 hire. Accurate?

What is a realistic seniority number (or overall seniority percentage) to bid CA?

APC profile also has all the mandatory retirements up to 2033. Still accurate? Everything looks in line except for the 2031 number (437). Is that correct? Any chance of updated numbers past 2033?
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Old 01-01-2018, 07:09 AM
  #2  
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Originally Posted by FlyingHercs View Post
Looking at the APC profile it says the junior CA is a 2005 hire. Accurate?

What is a realistic seniority number (or overall seniority percentage) to bid CA?

APC profile also has all the mandatory retirements up to 2033. Still accurate? Everything looks in line except for the 2031 number (437). Is that correct? Any chance of updated numbers past 2033?
Id like to know the accuracy of said information as well, but I'd also be surprised if this career is around by 2033...
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Old 01-01-2018, 07:32 AM
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Yes, the current junior CA is MD11 ANC with an 8/05 DOH.

Junior CA has generally run 65%(ish), although with last year's MOAB it went to 75%.

As for retirements, in my time here annual attrition has run about 50% greater than mandatory retirements. One of our pilots keeps a seniority list and here is what retirements look like through the next couple decades; the wave of retirements is quite apparent. I believe the average retirement age of a UPS pilot is 63.

Year Retirements Cumulative
2018 31 31
2019 43 74
2020 67 141
2021 64 205
2022 81 286
2023 76 362
2024 124 486
2025 129 615
2026 174 789
2027 160 949
2028 187 1136
2029 175 1311
2030 158 1469
2031 138 1607
2032 140 1747
2033 138 1885
2034 102 1987
2035 93 2080
2036 109 2189
2037 78 2267
2038 88 2355
2039 50 2405
2040 48 2453
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Old 01-01-2018, 07:35 AM
  #4  
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Junior Captains
ANC 747 7/2005
ANC MD11 8/2005
MIA 757 6/2001
ONT 757 5/2005
SDF 757 5/2005
SDFZ 757 11/2004
SDF A300 5/2005
SDF MD11 5/2001

Retirements have exceeded age 65 known numbers. Thus, if holds, then any numbers low in outlying years. Would need updates every 2 or so years to have better grasp of actual numbers of those leaving early.
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Old 01-01-2018, 12:48 PM
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We were scheduled to have 28 age-65 retirements in 2017 and if I recall correctly, the last IPNN showed 110 retired in 2017. I think we’re scheduled to have 38 age-65 retirements in 2018, but with so many guys hitting their 30-year mark, it’s all a crapshoot as to how many will actually go before age 65 this year.
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Old 01-01-2018, 01:52 PM
  #6  
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Originally Posted by CL300 View Post
We were scheduled to have 28 age-65 retirements in 2017 and if I recall correctly, the last IPNN showed 110 retired in 2017. I think we’re scheduled to have 38 age-65 retirements in 2018, but with so many guys hitting their 30-year mark, it’s all a crapshoot as to how many will actually go before age 65 this year.
48 scheduled for 2017.
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Old 01-01-2018, 04:07 PM
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I thought it was 28 on the IPA seniority calculator. Could have been 48. Public school math never was my fortè..... 😂
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:02 AM
  #8  
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Originally Posted by SaltyDog View Post
Junior Captains
ANC 747 7/2005
ANC MD11 8/2005
MIA 757 6/2001
ONT 757 5/2005
SDF 757 5/2005
SDFZ 757 11/2004
SDF A300 5/2005
SDF MD11 5/2001

.....
Someone knows the total number of FOs bypassing, but its in the hundreds. Expect many of those bypassing the upgrade to take one in the near future. I expect the junior Captain to remain a 2005 hire for a few more bids. Others will disagree ...

One of the common reasons to remain an FO (a better schedule), is not as much of a factor as the overall line quality continues to deteriorate.
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:55 AM
  #9  
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Originally Posted by CactusCrew View Post
Someone knows the total number of FOs bypassing, but its in the hundreds. Expect many of those bypassing the upgrade to take one in the near future. I expect the junior Captain to remain a 2005 hire for a few more bids. Others will disagree ...

One of the common reasons to remain an FO (a better schedule), is not as much of a factor as the overall line quality continues to deteriorate.
I think you are correct. I don’t see Captain slots going real junior for the next few bids as some very senior FO’s upgrade. Many of these guys can actually hold about the same trips as a captain as they currently hold as FO.
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:58 AM
  #10  
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Confirmed on mock bid #2. Every captain slot was taken by a bypasser.
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