The first sign a "true" shortage has occurred is when *arbitrary* barriers to entry are DROPPED, e.g. 1000 turbine PIC and the 4 year degree. These criteria have ZERO relevance in putting warm bodies in right hand seats.

Alaska dropped the 4 year req.

UPS Announces Training Program - FlightPath
 

1000TPIC and a bachelors degree are no longer requirements* at UPS.

(*Good luck today without both)

I would argue TPIC is far more pertinent than a degree; having had some kind of command experience makes for better FOs and future CAs.

In almost 30 years of flying I can’t count how many times I have heard about this impending pilot shortage that has yet to materialize but YMMV.

Are you serious? My buds I went to UPT who stayed active duty are now retiring. Two of my closest friends had multiple offers. One was hired at SWA, American and FDX. He left American for FDX after 6 months. Another friend had class dates at UPS, Delta, United and an interview at FDX. Any guy with 1500-2000 hours of TPIC (like nearly all retiring or separating pilots have) is getting multiple offers.

Pilot shortage nonsense
 

I’m sorry but I don’t see a pilot shortage. I see a ‘pay & benefits’ shortage.

Post 9/11 most, if not all airlines cut the pay and benefits for their pilots. Regional pilots were told the ability to log their flight time was a benefit in itself, basically we often had pilots working for free or maybe even paying a fee to work just for the chance of a better future one day when/if a major airline would call...

Now that pendulum has swung the other way everyone is panicking. Management reps at all airlines keep feeding us the pilot-shortage lie, and yes that’s what it is, a lie. They want the government to raise the retirement age and/or allow for experimenting with single pilot operations. Eventually management/government WILL get their way, they always do.

In the meantime however I say we stick to what we know - the realities of supply and demand.
- Pay accordingly and pilots WILL come.
- Build schedules which allow them to see their families more than ~5 days a month and they WILL come.
- Give them health care and retirement benefits which are appealing and yes, they WILL come.
- The same applies to students/future pilots - when they see improving working conditions at all airlines they’ll start taking flight lessons all over again. ..and then they WILL come.

Supply and demand works! There is NO pilot shortage. There is a Pay & Benefits shortage.

Hey UPS, former UPS driver here. Tell me that won't be a cool story? Driver to pilot

Yea, was cool 31 years ago when we had our first. A few since and a couple in management. Use it to your advantage though, they'll love you if you left on good terms!

I'd be surprised if it was the ups rep. They are still of the "everyone wants to work at the workers paradise and always will because we're UPS, F Yea!!".

Like the rest of management decisions around ups, they'll wait until 6 months or a year after it's become a problem and then start to study the problem in Atlanta,then spend the next ten years trying to catch up.

This gentleman is on to something here.

I came back after 16 years out.