UPS 2019 Hiring
#471
I think all hires from 2014 on will regret coming to both UPS and Fedex as we see Amazon grow and change the industry. Your peers at AA, UAL and DAL will move up rapidly while you stagnate. The domestic lines are unlivible long term and even 74 is getting bad. Just not smart to come here with the retirements there and uncertain future in express/cargo.
#472
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 311
I think all hires from 2014 on will regret coming to both UPS and Fedex as we see Amazon grow and change the industry. Your peers at AA, UAL and DAL will move up rapidly while you stagnate. The domestic lines are unlivible long term and even 74 is getting bad. Just not smart to come here with the retirements there and uncertain future in express/cargo.
#473
I think all hires from 2014 on will regret coming to both UPS and Fedex as we see Amazon grow and change the industry. Your peers at AA, UAL and DAL will move up rapidly while you stagnate. The domestic lines are unlivible long term and even 74 is getting bad. Just not smart to come here with the retirements there and uncertain future in express/cargo.
#474
Social Media retired.
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 768
I think all hires from 2014 on will regret coming to both UPS and Fedex as we see Amazon grow and change the industry. Your peers at AA, UAL and DAL will move up rapidly while you stagnate. The domestic lines are unlivible long term and even 74 is getting bad. Just not smart to come here with the retirements there and uncertain future in express/cargo.
#475
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Posts: 241
Which have their business models under existential threat from ULCC and the stagnating (or regressing) American median income?
Which ones have had messy lot integration issues from multiple drawn out mergers?
...there isn’t an obvious answer of which is best for a 30 year career starting now since none of us has a crystal ball. The future has a funny way of destroying predictive certainties.
The only thing I’m willing to bet on is AA will be in major trouble the next recession. Beyond that who knows.
#476
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 44
How worried are fairly new hires at UPS of the possibility of furlough when the next economic dip/recession hits?
I know the company is strong now, and growing, but are retirements and growth strong enough to keep everyone comfortable? Honestly curious.
I know the company is strong now, and growing, but are retirements and growth strong enough to keep everyone comfortable? Honestly curious.
#477
UPS 2019 Hiring
The big difference between now and 2010 are retirements, which are running at least double (currently about triple) mandatory numbers.
Even if the MD fleet was parked en masse and dry leased 767s returned/not taken, the -8s and 767s delivered and to be delivered would make overall fleet size a push.
Probably worth noting domestic Next Day Air volume is up 24% per today’s Q3 earnings release.
Even if the MD fleet was parked en masse and dry leased 767s returned/not taken, the -8s and 767s delivered and to be delivered would make overall fleet size a push.
Probably worth noting domestic Next Day Air volume is up 24% per today’s Q3 earnings release.
#478
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
I don’t think newhires need to worry about the possibility of a furlough. Just like Boiler said, there are numerous differences between what we see today and what we saw back then.
Having said that, I’d like to mention that we saw many pilots retire early (prior to 60) back then too. In fact, some of us junior guys and gals were amazed at how quickly we were moving up. The economy was good, we were getting more 76s and many captains were leaving at 58, 59, etc.
Then, seemingly overnight, pretty much ALL early retirements came to a screeching halt because the stock market dropped once recession had finally kicked in.
Point being, IF there’s a huge market drop you’ll see the very same trend - people will stick around for as long as they can. You won’t see a single person leave even a day early.
The other issue that truly ‘hurt’ all newhires back then was the age 65 retirement age change.
Passenger airlines didn’t have any flight engineers - we had hundreds. So while passenger airline pilots saw a major stagnation, we, junior pilots, saw massive regression in seniority and 109 of those junior pilots ended up losing their jobs, some of them for 4+ years.
Remember, age 65 rule meant that flight engineers who’re still under 65 could come back to the left seat displacing junior captains in those seat, who’d then displace junior FOs to flight engineers seats, who’d then displace junior flight engineers to ...them being furloughed.
The difference between now and then is that when age retirement changes again, and it will, to let’s say 68 (i.e. Japan scenario) everyone will see stagnation just the way passenger pilots saw back then. However, since we no longer have any flight engineers who can displace junior captains from their seats we’d see a stagnation but not a regression. A HUGE difference from back then.
If the economy gets so bad the company chooses to retire MD11s sooner than everyone anticipates and if they defer deliveries of airplanes already purchased - I’d say all bets are off.
Just don’t see that happening anytime soon....
So to answer your original question, I think new-hires should have very little to worry about. These are good times to be a newbie at any major airline.
#479
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 311
I don’t think newhires need to worry about the possibility of a furlough. Just like Boiler said, there are numerous differences between what we see today and what we saw back then.
Having said that, I’d like to mention that we saw many pilots retire early (prior to 60) back then too. In fact, some of us junior guys and gals were amazed at how quickly we were moving up. The economy was good, we were getting more 76s and many captains were leaving at 58, 59, etc.
Then, seemingly overnight, pretty much ALL early retirements came to a screeching halt because the stock market dropped once recession had finally kicked in.
Point being, IF there’s a huge market drop you’ll see the very same trend - people will stick around for as long as they can. You won’t see a single person leave even a day early.
The other issue that truly ‘hurt’ all newhires back then was the age 65 retirement age change.
Passenger airlines didn’t have any flight engineers - we had hundreds. So while passenger airline pilots saw a major stagnation, we, junior pilots, saw massive regression in seniority and 109 of those junior pilots ended up losing their jobs, some of them for 4+ years.
Remember, age 65 rule meant that flight engineers who’re still under 65 could come back to the left seat displacing junior captains in those seat, who’d then displace junior FOs to flight engineers seats, who’d then displace junior flight engineers to ...them being furloughed.
The difference between now and then is that when age retirement changes again, and it will, to let’s say 68 (i.e. Japan scenario) everyone will see stagnation just the way passenger pilots saw back then. However, since we no longer have any flight engineers who can displace junior captains from their seats we’d see a stagnation but not a regression. A HUGE difference from back then.
If the economy gets so bad the company chooses to retire MD11s sooner than everyone anticipates and if they defer deliveries of airplanes already purchased - I’d say all bets are off.
Just don’t see that happening anytime soon....
So to answer your original question, I think new-hires should have very little to worry about. These are good times to be a newbie at any major airline.
The point is, to reiterate the points made, even if we enter a recession in the near future, EVERY economist is saying it is going to be nothing like we saw earlier this decade. The experts say we don’t remember what a normal recession looks like, which doesn’t impact the economy nearly as much.
As a relatively new guy, I would not hesitate again to come to UPS today. Nothing is guaranteed, but outlook for all aviation jobs looks good. Heck, even with Fedex’s recent speed bumps and their impending freeze (6-9 months is rumor), I would absolutely go there first chance if presented the offer.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post