Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
#1
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
Nothing new per se but Amazon Prime’s rate of growth is stunning..
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Watch out, UPS. Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon is already delivering half of its packages
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 12 201911:24 AM
Michael Sheetz
Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation.
“Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.
The firm estimates Amazon Logistics will reach a volume of 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.
Amazon is already delivering about half of its own packages in the U.S., according to a Morgan Stanley estimate on Thursday, and will soon pass both United Parcel Service and FedEx in total volume.
Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation. Morgan Stanley said Amazon Logistics “more than doubled its share” of U.S. package volumes from about 20% a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year. For comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.”
“We see more of this going forward as our new bottom-up US package model assumes Amazon Logistics US packages grow at a 68% [compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022],” Morgan Stanley said.
That would put Amazon Logistics at 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, according to the firm, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.
“To us, Amazon Logistics is already-large scale and with a fleet ~1/5 the size of competitors, it speaks to its ability to use density and technology to drive efficiency,” Morgan Stanley said.
20% upside?
The firm says Amazon Logistics is more focused than its competitors on densely populated areas. According to Morgan Stanley’s estimate, about 61% of Amazon Logistics’ package volumes are from suburban areas, 28% are from urban areas, and just 11% are from rural areas. That makes Amazon Logistics’ rural focus about half of its competitors, as the rest of the industry typically derives 20% of package volume from rural areas, the firm said.
Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on Amazon shares, with a $2,100 price target that is nearly 20% above the stock’s current level.
The firm also lowered its price target on both UPS shares to $78 from $85 — about 33% below its current price — and FedEx shares to $111 from $120 — which would be a drop of about 32% from current levels. Morgan Stanley has an underweight rating on UPS and an equal-weight rating on FedEx.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/anal...ups-fedex.html
____
Watch out, UPS. Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon is already delivering half of its packages
PUBLISHED THU, DEC 12 201911:24 AM
Michael Sheetz
Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation.
“Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.
The firm estimates Amazon Logistics will reach a volume of 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.
Amazon is already delivering about half of its own packages in the U.S., according to a Morgan Stanley estimate on Thursday, and will soon pass both United Parcel Service and FedEx in total volume.
Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation. Morgan Stanley said Amazon Logistics “more than doubled its share” of U.S. package volumes from about 20% a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year. For comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.”
“We see more of this going forward as our new bottom-up US package model assumes Amazon Logistics US packages grow at a 68% [compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022],” Morgan Stanley said.
That would put Amazon Logistics at 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, according to the firm, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.
“To us, Amazon Logistics is already-large scale and with a fleet ~1/5 the size of competitors, it speaks to its ability to use density and technology to drive efficiency,” Morgan Stanley said.
20% upside?
The firm says Amazon Logistics is more focused than its competitors on densely populated areas. According to Morgan Stanley’s estimate, about 61% of Amazon Logistics’ package volumes are from suburban areas, 28% are from urban areas, and just 11% are from rural areas. That makes Amazon Logistics’ rural focus about half of its competitors, as the rest of the industry typically derives 20% of package volume from rural areas, the firm said.
Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on Amazon shares, with a $2,100 price target that is nearly 20% above the stock’s current level.
The firm also lowered its price target on both UPS shares to $78 from $85 — about 33% below its current price — and FedEx shares to $111 from $120 — which would be a drop of about 32% from current levels. Morgan Stanley has an underweight rating on UPS and an equal-weight rating on FedEx.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/anal...ups-fedex.html
#3
Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
For the last 15 years that I've been paying attention, Morgan Stanley's notes have been more wrong than right, seemingly publicized to cause near-term stock price movement more than anything else. Sensationally written clickbait headlines serve the same purpose.
Notice how the story didn't mention how Amazon volume at UPS has spiked in 2019, or how Amazon volume has sharply declined for USPS.
For the last 15 years that I've been paying attention, Morgan Stanley's notes have been more wrong than right, seemingly publicized to cause near-term stock price movement more than anything else. Sensationally written clickbait headlines serve the same purpose.
Notice how the story didn't mention how Amazon volume at UPS has spiked in 2019, or how Amazon volume has sharply declined for USPS.
Last edited by BoilerUP; 12-13-2019 at 04:06 AM.
#4
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
Never said that. ...and I don’t believe the article implies it either.
AMZN has been great for my stock portfolio so far. However I still think the rate of Amazon PRIME’s growth has been phenomenal.
After all, it wasn’t that long ago people on this very forum didn’t believe Amazon would ever get into the shipping side of business. Well they did. ..with a vengeance.
So this is more about FDX versus UPS approach to Amazon. I still think FDX has more of a long term view whereas UPS continuous doing business with Amazon knowing that in the long term it’ll be a parasitical or harmful (to UPS) relationship. Once again, time will tell.
AMZN has been great for my stock portfolio so far. However I still think the rate of Amazon PRIME’s growth has been phenomenal.
After all, it wasn’t that long ago people on this very forum didn’t believe Amazon would ever get into the shipping side of business. Well they did. ..with a vengeance.
So this is more about FDX versus UPS approach to Amazon. I still think FDX has more of a long term view whereas UPS continuous doing business with Amazon knowing that in the long term it’ll be a parasitical or harmful (to UPS) relationship. Once again, time will tell.
#5
No, you didn't.
The comment wasn't toward you, but rather the Wall Street types that continue to further their prognostications, made more from emotion than verifiable fact, in public.
Financial websites were posting articles by analysts just two years ago how FDX was kicking our arse and Amazon was going to put us out of business...but where are we today? Showing growth and financial performance WAY better than anybody thought we would.
Yes, Amazon has quickly grown their logistics business carrying a substantial amount of their own volume by focusing on high population density areas...but even as Prime Air has formed and navy blue Sprinter vans have flooded suburbia, our Amazon volume has only increased. Furthermore, our B2C volume has increased no less than 6% each of the last two years, more than 3x what Morgan Stanley projects we'll see in 2020 and 2021.
Yet, the headline reads "Watch out, UPS"...
The comment wasn't toward you, but rather the Wall Street types that continue to further their prognostications, made more from emotion than verifiable fact, in public.
Financial websites were posting articles by analysts just two years ago how FDX was kicking our arse and Amazon was going to put us out of business...but where are we today? Showing growth and financial performance WAY better than anybody thought we would.
Yes, Amazon has quickly grown their logistics business carrying a substantial amount of their own volume by focusing on high population density areas...but even as Prime Air has formed and navy blue Sprinter vans have flooded suburbia, our Amazon volume has only increased. Furthermore, our B2C volume has increased no less than 6% each of the last two years, more than 3x what Morgan Stanley projects we'll see in 2020 and 2021.
Yet, the headline reads "Watch out, UPS"...
#6
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.
#7
Occasional box hauler
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,636
True but I think many analysts believe our relationship with Prime will hurt us in the long term. That we’re helping our future competition and that our short-term gains won’t offset the long term damages to our business. In 5-10 years we’ll know.
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2018
Position: 767 FO
Posts: 152
True but I think many analysts believe our relationship with Prime will hurt us in the long term. That we’re helping our future competition and that our short-term gains won’t offset the long term damages to our business. In 5-10 years we’ll know.
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.
#9
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
Again, don’t understand why people need to put down a competitor when posting a reply, “flying toothpaste and toilet paper around”, really?
No one knows how these decisions will turn out, no one has a magic wand. Both Fedex and UPS are adapting, transforming, both will be fine. Neither is sitting idle doing nothing. There is plenty of volume to go around. These analysts are a bunch of overpaid, over privileged baffoons who love to spread doom and gloom, for Fedex, UPS, whoever.
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