4 yr capt at ups
11-26-2019, 04:51 PM
#11
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 20
Originally Posted by C2078
Several very happy campers tomorrow!! The 74 SDF is definitely shaking things up, doubt 2014 or 2015 will hold it next year though.
And 14’-15’ new hires wouldn’t hold it next year because why?
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11-26-2019, 04:58 PM
#12
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
4 yr capt at ups
Just my opinion, once the 74 SDF dust settles, I personally know MANY senior FO bypassers who are waiting to get as many folks below them as possible, if many junior FO’s upgrade with this bid, that may be what it takes for these folks to upgrade. For those not aware, we have 500+ FO’s bypassing Captain, out of a group of 2,900 or so. Just my opinion, I’ve been wrong before :-)
11-26-2019, 05:13 PM
#13
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 20
Originally Posted by C2078
Just my opinion, once the 74 SDF dust settles, I personally know MANY senior FO bypassers who are waiting to get as many folks below them as possible, if many junior FO’s upgrade with this bid, that may be what it takes for these folks to upgrade. For those not aware, we have 500+ FO’s bypassing Captain, out of a group of 2,900 or so. Just my opinion, I’ve been wrong before :-)
I guess I would disagree
-2/3 retirements are going early
-Those bypassing numbers are industry average (and have been hearing for years about the by passers taking the next bid)
-we are still taking delivery of planes
It would seem to me to equal an upgrade opportunity that will keep moving down the seniority list.
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11-26-2019, 05:17 PM
#14
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
4 yr capt at ups
Originally Posted by expedite03
I guess I would disagree
-2/3 retirements are going early
-Those bypassing numbers are industry average (and have been hearing for years about the by passers taking the next bid)
-we are still taking delivery of planes
It would seem to me to equal an upgrade opportunity that will keep moving down the seniority list.
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-2/3 retirements are going early
-Those bypassing numbers are industry average (and have been hearing for years about the by passers taking the next bid)
-we are still taking delivery of planes
It would seem to me to equal an upgrade opportunity that will keep moving down the seniority list.
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Many hope you are right, junior Captains are always a feel good story, I hope I am wrong as well.
Oh, and as for taking deliveries, until the company announces an order that will result in NET POSITIVE GROWTH once the 37 MD’s get parked, I hold very little hope in that arena. The logical choice is more 74’s and 76’s to keep fleet simplicity, but Triumph just announced the wind down of their fuselage building operation. So let’s assume no more 74’s, that leaves the 76 line, but no new orders yet. If you count the 28 74’s, plus the new 76’s, that is barely break even when the MD’s are gone (I suspect sooner rather than later).
If and when they announce a new order, then I’ll believe it. My fear is we take all these airplanes and then park the MD’s, creating a somewhat stagnant situation. Again, I hope I am wrong.
Last edited by C2078; 11-26-2019 at 05:33 PM.
11-26-2019, 06:24 PM
#16
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,505
Originally Posted by C2078
Oh, and as for taking deliveries, until the company announces an order that will result in NET POSITIVE GROWTH once the 37 MD’s get parked
We are adding 49 total airframes from 2017 through 2022.
28 747-8
13 763
3 763BCF (JAL)
5 long-term dry lease 763
11-26-2019, 06:32 PM
#17
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
4 yr capt at ups
Originally Posted by BoilerUP
We are adding 49 total airframes from 2017 through 2022.
28 747-8
13 763
3 763BCF (JAL)
5 long-term dry lease 763
28 747-8
13 763
3 763BCF (JAL)
5 long-term dry lease 763
Thank you for confirming my statement. The 5 long term lease planes are not permanent, could be gone when the shizzle hits the fan. So that is 42 gross new planes, when we park the MD’s in 5-7 years, that is a NET of 5 planes. Not a bad situation, but definitely not as rosy as it appears.
Retirements will help a lot during this time, for sure. Hey, I am fairly new, I want the explosive movement just as much as the next guy, but I always look at best AND worst case scenario, find a middle point. The Debbie Downers are just as bad as the company cheerleaders.
11-26-2019, 06:50 PM
#20
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
And further clarification, I enjoy this job very much. Great crews, good pay, excellent benefits, schedules ehhhh (but not worse than industry), don’t love all night flying but I sure as heck knew this coming in, starting to have some schedule flexibility, etc.
I consider myself very fortunate to have one of the best aviation jobs in the world. I have helped several people get hired here, and will continue to do so because I believe in this job. People like you Boiler, always post positive, precise, factual information. Everyone should evaluate your posts with weight.
I only have a handful of reservations about this job, the MD replacement being one. I am proud to be part of this pilot group and to be represented by the IPA.
I consider myself very fortunate to have one of the best aviation jobs in the world. I have helped several people get hired here, and will continue to do so because I believe in this job. People like you Boiler, always post positive, precise, factual information. Everyone should evaluate your posts with weight.
I only have a handful of reservations about this job, the MD replacement being one. I am proud to be part of this pilot group and to be represented by the IPA.
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