FTv3

Thought it might be useful for new hires and potential new hires to get some factual info on UPS’s history of furloughing pilots as well as getting a little debate going on what the future may bring for the pilot group in terms of the pandemic.

I understand UPS has furloughed twice once. Post 9/11 and the Great Recession in the late 2000’s. All I know about the former is that it was ultimately related to UPS pressuring for contractual concessions. Be great for someone to write up the story here - I honestly didn’t recall that we’d furloughed in early 2000’s when I heard someone mention it last week.

The 109 furloughed just over a decade ago is a more complicated story. There are guys on here that were directly affected by this so it would be best for them to tell it. The gist of it was that the IPA offered the company enough concessions to equal out the cost value of keeping the guys on property vs furloughing. Of the 300 furlough letters sent out, UPS sent 109 off the property anyway. I though they brought a few back rather quickly; yet some were still returning as late as 2015. Interesting to note, almost everybody came back: 1 guy bailed to management, another 2(?) passed away but everyone else is back on the line - there is a union document which tracked the status of the 109 but I can’t seem to find it again. Anyway, would be great for someone to post a detailed summary.

FTv3

Going forward: perhaps we could focus more on the factors that influence one outcome vs the other rather than defending opinions on what we may or may not do...?

I’ll lead off with the most obvious: we are currently experiencing a surge in business. What is this surge made of, will it last? AFAIK, the increase in volume is largely from FEMA / healthcare related stuff. I’ve heard freight and SCS increases contribute too but not sure how. I read somewhere that our regular, pre covid volume is down. Obviously once the healthcare system stabilizes so too will its volume demands.

Amazon volume: argument is people are forced to buy online with the isolation requirements and people will keep being fearful of going into public spaces until well after a vaccine or treatment is available = both good for us. These are counteracted by people, 1. Being more frugal, 2. Not having disposable income to buy non-necessities.

There is also the loss of belly space on the pax carriers that we heavily used which we must now haul ourselves. Good for our jobs but not so much for our business (costs more, less accessibility, takes up valuable volume on our birds).

Our big retirement wave is just about to begin. However, seems many guys are talking about putting off early retirement now...

Our business is directly tied to the health of the economy. I think we all know some very dark times lay ahead.

BoilerUP

UPS never actually furloughed post-9/11.

FTv3

Thx man. Knew I wasn’t losing my mind. Guessing there was only a threat of. Anyone got the background?

BoilerUP

I think they threatened to furlough, maybe even sent out letters...but never actually pulled the trigger.

I’m sure somebody who was here then will tell the story.

I’d submit that while we’re in no way immune from the economic impact of a long-term recession, this historically conservative and short-staffed company is still hiring and taking new airplanes. Anybody new here or with a class date should know we’re a LONG way from a reduction in force at this point.

The faster we move through this pandemic and start reopening the economy, the better off we’ll all be...

UPSFO4LIFE

[QUOTE=FTv3;3037430
Our big retirement wave is just about to begin. However, seems many guys are talking about putting off early retirement now...
.[/QUOTE]

Not sure I agree with you on this. I know of 2 guys in the last few weeks that decided to hang it up when they were going to leave later in the year. Some guys will stay, but I think an equal amount will leave early as the smart ones have moved a lot of their money out of stocks.

FTv3

I regurgitated what a captain jumpseating with us said when my captain mentioned he needed to delay his planned early retirement. I’ve also heard/read some of the older guys don’t want to deal with this corona schitt nor with the increasingly crappy schedules - maybe more guys will punch out early???

senecacaptain

I would think UPS, FedEx, and the Amazon Prime contractor companies are about as secure as anything (Part 121 wise) in the current COVID environment. Besides federal government jobs.

Amazing how quiet the various "I am at FedEx, should I go to Delta" etc threads have become.

Stay home, order stuff, deliver stuff. Oh, deliver it as soon as I click "purchase."

FIT59

Corrections from my memory, having received a furlough letter, but was fortunate to not get furloughed.

December 13, 2007, age 65 law changes; over 60 FE's begin bidding ANC 747 vacancies to get their seat back, beginning a bump (and eventual flush). May 2008, after a failed bid to take over the domestic flying for DHL, UPS announces the parking of all remaining DC-8's (approximately 45 airframes). Shortly after, UPS tells the union that 300 pilots will need to be furloughed. After discussions between the IPA and UPS, a target amount of financial savings is negotiated to prevent furloughs (a goal post created). The VJPP MOU was created with many different methods to reach the above mentioned goal post of savings. These included reduced guarantee lines, job sharing lines, leaves of absence, and sick bank give backs. Nearly all IPA crew members contributed to this MOU and just as the goal was met, the company instructed the union to give more, moving the goal posts further. There simply was no more to give and the company broke their word and sent out 170 furlough letters. A few weeks later, they sent out an additional 10 letters, totaling 180. Of that, 109 were furloughed. After the Flight 6 tragedy, UPS stopped furloughing. Perhaps they no longer needed to furlough, or perhaps they grew a conscience. The company was wildly profitable over this period of time, and they certainly could have absorbed the 109, but chose a different path. By the way, many of those furloughed had received a one way move package to the ANC domicile, and were stranded up there, unemployed. It was a difficult time, and it lasted what seemed like forever. The IPA had our brothers and sisters back; I heard we only had 18 crew members violate the no open time ban during the furlough (something that is written into our CBA).

FTv3

Edit: thanks for that summary!!!

If this pandemic has taught us anything it is to remember to expect the unexpected. We are in unchartered waters without much of a paddle or a map. Everyone seems to opine (myself included) this is just a bump in the road and expecting a v shaped or f(x)=x^2 type of recovery. Equally likely to be more f(x)=sqrt(x)....

Here’s some pessimistic ideas to further consider:

• The second wave’s arrival and its effect,
• Amazon could seize the opportunity to finally take over the shipping industry. (edit #2 added article link) https://www.barrons.com/articles/ama...ps-51587403739
• huge political instability caused by deep, deep division in this country could very easily crack open in November - we could all find ourselves in a real bad mess by year’s end.
• New CEO resuming the Davis doctrine strategy
• Aircraft orders can be deferred or cancelled,
• Airlines hire until they furlough.

I would say we probably got some time before RIF could become an issue. Too many unknown variables to predict safely in either direction IMHO. Seems like many peeps aren’t too worried about it which is why I started this thread.