Vacancy Bid for July 2020
07-09-2020, 08:13 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2014
Posts: 306
Originally Posted by pony172
Why would would a Capt care about upgrades in the bid and new hires that aren't here? Junior guys care about that. Who is ****ing and moaning about time and a half plus all of the premiums the EB negotiated for us? B**** slap them for me if you hear one. Two of the best pieces of advice guys gave me over the years here are: "Never pass up an upgrade" and "Make hay while the sun is shining." There is nothing wrong with making as much money as humanly possible right now to have some cash in the bank for whatever the future holds. Be it the exwife, a boat, kid's education, or early retirement. Early retirement is what you junior guys should be hoping for. That will drive Capt upgrades more than anything. Although it doesn't seem like the company sees it that way. Our JA system benefits the junior folks here way more than any other place I have seen. If you know any United folks ask them how it works over there. As a junior Cpt, I'm that guy you're talking about. You never know when it will end. We have no JA/OT ban right now. Make it while you can. Now I know what the 74 guys have been feeling like the last few years. This could be some IPA'ers only chance in their career to make that extra 50-100k in a year. Go for it.
07-09-2020, 09:44 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,339
Originally Posted by vbguy01
...
People picking up open time and JAs are NOT going to increase the upgrade time, it is going to continue to go down, it is just simple math.
...
People picking up open time and JAs are NOT going to increase the upgrade time, it is going to continue to go down, it is just simple math.
...
Personally, I would rather see us grow and have 100 guys/gals below me than pick up 1,000 hours of JA, but that’s just my preference. (and yes, that's a big chuck of money but I’d still prefer an improved relative seniority.)
So you believe people picking up OT and JA are NOT affecting our average upgrade times?? Well, they’re certainly NOT shortening them. Agree?
07-10-2020, 07:36 AM
#23
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 923
Originally Posted by whalesurfer
OT and JA trips are a contractual right and I won’t dispute that.
Personally, I would rather see us grow and have 100 guys/gals below me than pick up 1,000 hours of JA, but that’s just my preference. (and yes, that's a big chuck of money but I’d still prefer an improved relative seniority.)
So you believe people picking up OT and JA are NOT affecting our average upgrade times?? Well, they’re certainly NOT shortening them. Agree?
Personally, I would rather see us grow and have 100 guys/gals below me than pick up 1,000 hours of JA, but that’s just my preference. (and yes, that's a big chuck of money but I’d still prefer an improved relative seniority.)
So you believe people picking up OT and JA are NOT affecting our average upgrade times?? Well, they’re certainly NOT shortening them. Agree?
And BTW, while new guys under me improves my relative seniority, what truly has driven my QOL improvement is not the people under me but the people above me moving to a different base or upgrading, hence my disappointment with only 16 upgrades.
My opinion of course 😉
07-10-2020, 09:54 AM
#26
The NeverEnding Story
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,505
Originally Posted by brownie
I'm just glad we stll have a vacancy bid of any size and hiring in compare to what's going on with our people flyers
109% THIS.
With that perspective in mind, the relative lack of Captain positions on the vacancy given YTD attrition is...interesting. I admittedly don’t have the big picture though...
Lots ‘o MEF going on right now across most fleets.
07-10-2020, 10:06 AM
#27
Tri-tanic operator
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: Doggie
Posts: 2,382
Originally Posted by vbguy01
I think the mentality of people picking up open time affecting hiring and upgrades was prudent in the past but not anymore. The company has committed to hiring nearly 300 per year for the past few years although only about 265 were the actual numbers. This is limited by the capacity of the training center. In essence, hiring is already maxed out and upgrade times have dropped below 5 years (4yr, 8mo) If UPS really wants to get ahead of the manning curve, they would invest more in training or outsource it to supplement.
They are woefully undermanned on the FO side, hence the latest vacancy bid. The voluntary retirement age is going to drop to 62 or lower at current pace. People picking up open time and JAs are NOT going to increase the upgrade time, it is going to continue to go down, it is just simple math. In the next 2 years, the number of mandatory retirements is going to double and in 4 years, quadruple and continue to increase peaking at more than 150 per year in less than 6 years. Upgrades will continue to be sub 5 year and likely under 4 years soon. The company has no choice. Just look at the amount of open time out there. With 2 weeks left in the period, there were no less than 85 trips in open time Reserve cannot cover them all hence the numerous JA calls to the right seat.
BL are we doing more with less? Of course but it is not to the detriment of hiring and upgrade times. Those have no choice but to continue to go up and down respectively.
Cheers
They are woefully undermanned on the FO side, hence the latest vacancy bid. The voluntary retirement age is going to drop to 62 or lower at current pace. People picking up open time and JAs are NOT going to increase the upgrade time, it is going to continue to go down, it is just simple math. In the next 2 years, the number of mandatory retirements is going to double and in 4 years, quadruple and continue to increase peaking at more than 150 per year in less than 6 years. Upgrades will continue to be sub 5 year and likely under 4 years soon. The company has no choice. Just look at the amount of open time out there. With 2 weeks left in the period, there were no less than 85 trips in open time Reserve cannot cover them all hence the numerous JA calls to the right seat.
BL are we doing more with less? Of course but it is not to the detriment of hiring and upgrade times. Those have no choice but to continue to go up and down respectively.
Cheers
Do those mandatory projection numbers take into account that a 62 year old who left voluntarily, will not become a mandatory retirement in a few years ? I am guessing not, it would be a ever-changing.
Just something to consider. What we know about mandatory retirement numbers, is going to be affected by the increase in voluntary retirement numbers.
Too much math for me
07-11-2020, 04:01 AM
#29
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2014
Posts: 46
Originally Posted by CactusCrew
Please explain this "simple math" ... if the number of "voluntary" retirements increase, so that the "voluntary" retirement age drops below 62 ... how will the mandatory retirements remain the same ?
Do those mandatory projection numbers take into account that a 62 year old who left voluntarily, will not become a mandatory retirement in a few years ? I am guessing not, it would be a ever-changing.
Just something to consider. What we know about mandatory retirement numbers, is going to be affected by the increase in voluntary retirement numbers.
Too much math for me
Do those mandatory projection numbers take into account that a 62 year old who left voluntarily, will not become a mandatory retirement in a few years ? I am guessing not, it would be a ever-changing.
Just something to consider. What we know about mandatory retirement numbers, is going to be affected by the increase in voluntary retirement numbers.
Too much math for me
Here are the number of mandatory retirements (age 65) for the next few years: 2020-16, 2021-30, 2022-52, 2023-48, 2024, 101, 2025-142, 2026-160.
If more of our chronologically gifted pilots desire to retire early (age 63) the numbers are 2020-91, 2021-143, 2022-283, 2023-332, 2024-322, 2025-263, 2026-238.
Now these numbers are relevant only if the average age drops to 63 and remains unchanged through 2026. These are also TOTAL retirement numbers, a blended solution of voluntary and mandatory.
I think the current average retirement age is 63.5 but don't quote me on that. Therefore, the age 63 numbers should be pretty close to what we are seeing now. If the average age drops to 62, the numbers you can add are about an average of 40 more per year. (This data is using the IPA's own numbers.)
The simple math, in abstract terms, is more guys are going to be heading out the door than are coming in the door if the company doesn't kick it up a gear. Approximately 90% of the retirees are Captains, driving the upgrade times down to fill the gap. Definitely a good place to be in today's world.
Disclaimer: I'm a history major and I didn't stay at a HIE last night and these numbers are after 1/2 cup of coffee!
07-11-2020, 07:06 AM
#30
Occasional box hauler
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,676
Originally Posted by vbguy01
Okay, let's take a shallow dive into the numbers...
Here are the number of mandatory retirements (age 65) for the next few years: 2020-16, 2021-30, 2022-52, 2023-48, 2024, 101, 2025-142, 2026-160.
If more of our chronologically gifted pilots desire to retire early (age 63) the numbers are 2020-91, 2021-143, 2022-283, 2023-332, 2024-322, 2025-263, 2026-238.
Now these numbers are relevant only if the average age drops to 63 and remains unchanged through 2026. These are also TOTAL retirement numbers, a blended solution of voluntary and mandatory.
I think the current average retirement age is 63.5 but don't quote me on that. Therefore, the age 63 numbers should be pretty close to what we are seeing now. If the average age drops to 62, the numbers you can add are about an average of 40 more per year. (This data is using the IPA's own numbers.)
The simple math, in abstract terms, is more guys are going to be heading out the door than are coming in the door if the company doesn't kick it up a gear. Approximately 90% of the retirees are Captains, driving the upgrade times down to fill the gap. Definitely a good place to be in today's world.
Disclaimer: I'm a history major and I didn't stay at a HIE last night and these numbers are after 1/2 cup of coffee!
Here are the number of mandatory retirements (age 65) for the next few years: 2020-16, 2021-30, 2022-52, 2023-48, 2024, 101, 2025-142, 2026-160.
If more of our chronologically gifted pilots desire to retire early (age 63) the numbers are 2020-91, 2021-143, 2022-283, 2023-332, 2024-322, 2025-263, 2026-238.
Now these numbers are relevant only if the average age drops to 63 and remains unchanged through 2026. These are also TOTAL retirement numbers, a blended solution of voluntary and mandatory.
I think the current average retirement age is 63.5 but don't quote me on that. Therefore, the age 63 numbers should be pretty close to what we are seeing now. If the average age drops to 62, the numbers you can add are about an average of 40 more per year. (This data is using the IPA's own numbers.)
The simple math, in abstract terms, is more guys are going to be heading out the door than are coming in the door if the company doesn't kick it up a gear. Approximately 90% of the retirees are Captains, driving the upgrade times down to fill the gap. Definitely a good place to be in today's world.
Disclaimer: I'm a history major and I didn't stay at a HIE last night and these numbers are after 1/2 cup of coffee!
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