BrownDoubles

Much more articulate than I would have put it... I think the slowdown of hiring for CV has exacerbated the FO shortage.

MileHighClub

Oops! And I can't even go back and edit it. Great forum software! SARCASM

Seatwarmer

How these idiots in manpower planning keep their jobs is beyond me. That being said, as long as the boxes are moving whether by open time pickup or JA there really is not a problem to be addressed.

C2078

We all want more bodies, more new blood, especially us “newer” folks, but the dynamic of the shortage UPS runs benefits those on property, especially those that wish to work their butts off.

CL300

This. On my last trip, if I ran into 15 captains, more than half of them were on a JA. They’re covering the companies @ss right now. Maybe they need to pay off the ex, maybe they need to pay off the boat, I don’t know everyone’s situation I spoke with, but the handful I did talk to just wanted the money. That’s fine, but don’t pi$$ and moan about the bid being so small and how your phone rings 3-4 times daily with JA calls. You want upgrades and new hires? Quit flying the JAs.

Rant over.

Some of the guys I talked to are only flying 1-2 per year, others are flying 1-2 per month. The rant above obviously applies to the latter group, not the former.

vbguy01

I think the mentality of people picking up open time affecting hiring and upgrades was prudent in the past but not anymore. The company has committed to hiring nearly 300 per year for the past few years although only about 265 were the actual numbers. This is limited by the capacity of the training center. In essence, hiring is already maxed out and upgrade times have dropped below 5 years (4yr, 8mo) If UPS really wants to get ahead of the manning curve, they would invest more in training or outsource it to supplement.

They are woefully undermanned on the FO side, hence the latest vacancy bid. The voluntary retirement age is going to drop to 62 or lower at current pace. People picking up open time and JAs are NOT going to increase the upgrade time, it is going to continue to go down, it is just simple math. In the next 2 years, the number of mandatory retirements is going to double and in 4 years, quadruple and continue to increase peaking at more than 150 per year in less than 6 years. Upgrades will continue to be sub 5 year and likely under 4 years soon. The company has no choice. Just look at the amount of open time out there. With 2 weeks left in the period, there were no less than 85 trips in open time Reserve cannot cover them all hence the numerous JA calls to the right seat.

BL are we doing more with less? Of course but it is not to the detriment of hiring and upgrade times. Those have no choice but to continue to go up and down respectively.

Cheers

hammer pants

Boxes are moving at a quarter of the cost of additional crew members. Seems they are pretty smart to me.

Swedish Blender

I’m not sure about your retirement numbers greatly increasing over what there is now. I understand the planned retirements, but with guys going early now, it’s decreasing later years. If the trend continues where guys/gals go out prior to 65 then it may continue.

As far as sub 4 yr upgrades, I bet this goes the other way and is quite a bit more senior with there being only 16 spots.

pony172

Why would would a Capt care about upgrades in the bid and new hires that aren't here? Junior guys care about that. Who is ****ing and moaning about time and a half plus all of the premiums the EB negotiated for us? B**** slap them for me if you hear one. Two of the best pieces of advice guys gave me over the years here are: "Never pass up an upgrade" and "Make hay while the sun is shining." There is nothing wrong with making as much money as humanly possible right now to have some cash in the bank for whatever the future holds. Be it the exwife, a boat, kid's education, or early retirement. Early retirement is what you junior guys should be hoping for. That will drive Capt upgrades more than anything. Although it doesn't seem like the company sees it that way. Our JA system benefits the junior folks here way more than any other place I have seen. If you know any United folks ask them how it works over there. As a junior Cpt, I'm that guy you're talking about. You never know when it will end. We have no JA/OT ban right now. Make it while you can. Now I know what the 74 guys have been feeling like the last few years. This could be some IPA'ers only chance in their career to make that extra 50-100k in a year. Go for it.

MoosePileit

I'm holding out to see what happens by July the 15th whenthe subcontractors vaporize.

I mean give us a BV day in 2021.

Sure seemed like a bunch of flying (future, known, now to be open time) was intentionally left OUT of the 20-05 bidpacks.