There will be an inflection point where all of this stuff starts becoming *possible* very, very quickly. I don't personally think we're super close to that point, but it will arrive, and when it does it'll make your head spin. However, as pointed out above, even when it happens, the regulatory and PR considerations will take many years to untangle and implement. If I had to guess, I'd say single pilot becomes common sometime around retirement for guys who are now in their 40s.

 

Anybody remember Germanwings 9525?

Malaysian 370?

Lion Air 610 or Ethiopian 302?

FedEx 705?

 

Anyone who’s ever been around drone ops realizes that doesn’t mean pilotless airplanes. I don’t have a keyboard or that much time but bottom line we will never see it. From a technology standpoint we are probably 10-15 years away. Regulatory an additional 10-20. But the kicker is cost. It will probably cost a substantial amount more to fly planes without a pilot in the actual airplane, and that’s only if the public/.gov would allow it. It’s just not as simple as “push a button and be done”

 

All very true. Except no airline and no government agency is looking at pilot-less airplanes at this time. That’s still decades away.

Instead they’re researching single pilot operations or more accurately 1 pilot in the cockpit of the actual airplane and 1 pilot in the cockpit but on the ground.

Several universities have already received grants to research CRM implications of two pilots working “together” but virtually. Basically without them being able to see each other. In other words, will they need cameras for the CRM to work or not? Still at least a decade away but this will undoubtedly be the first step toward total automation.

So 1 pilot who does the takeoff and landing backed up by a “remote” First Officer. Once again, decades away but it’ll happen. Airlines own the FAA (which should be renamed to F$$) and once technology improves the airlines will be the driving force behind this.

 

797 Schematics already had a Left seat only variant, Box in the right. Delayed by this current event but you can bet it will happen, maybe not tomorrow but within 10 years it’s highly plausible or 15 whatever. That’s HALF of the workforce sliced off the cake. If not half, at least a third.... Not discussing pilotless, like Fred Smith who has been a top investor in such motivations (“not a pipe-dream”). Business is business. All companies are already deep into this and it will be tabled, whether or it not it passes the first round, etc. is not the issue. The issue is that it will be tabled. Those retiring in 10, 15 years maybe 20 definitely Left Seat hopefully OK. Right seat will dissipate as iron comes on line if lucky thru normal attrition. Quick way to solve a “Pilot shortage.” Total 8-Ball here, but something to think about.

Long Haul using a crew of 4 = Use 2 now, 1 Driver, 1 Sleeper, 1 Box. If you need that pilot (just a few on Reserve) on the ground they can be called up from their lounge chair anytime. Not hard to figure out. FAA will be a struggle, but nothing new.

 

B797 plans are no more.. Boeing has decided to focus on B737 Max instead.

https://simpleflying.com/what-happen...he-boeing-797/

 

That's an interesting concept and one that makes little sense to me. Will be interesting to see if we go down that road. I am curious where the cost savings come from if you're still paying for 2 pilots, even though one is not on the plane. So many other questions with that scenario as well. I personally don't see it going very well, but who knows.

 

Great question. I can think of three possible scenarios but I’m sure there’ll be others..

For one, I doubt these “copilots” would ever be as highly compensated as regular pilots. Why would they if they can sleep in their own beds every night?

Also, at some point they might be able to ‘fly’ - although ‘monitor’ would be a better term - more than one flight at a time. Think of our dispatchers and how they’re in charge of several flights at a time. (again, YEARS down the road with automation backups not even available at this time).

..and ultimately those pilots will probably be “flying” those jets from double-wide trailers in Shenzhen or Mumbai making a whopping dollar and a cheeseburger an hour.

Again, we’re talking decades down the road but the cheapening of our profession will continue...

All speculations of course ..but that’s what ACP is for. haha

 

Remotes pilots won’t happen IMO. Any system that is capable of controlling flight from the ground will be susceptible to hackers. The military, government, big business and critical infrastructure are all hacked regularly. The cost to protect the system would be outrageously high.

The only way I see single pilot working is a airplane capable of autonomous flight with a human backup.

 

All good points...I don’t necessarily agree with you but good points. Except about the FAA...you are 1000% correct on that on!!