jetlaggy

Those 747-8 weren’t there last quarter statement so something is up with em…I thought Air Bridge Cargo put some new ones in storage.

flyguy23

Id bet those -8s are real and coming. No clue how that is being worked out, but these statements are put together very carefully. That’s not a mistake. As far as growth vs replacement, probably a combination. The Md is going away, but I’d bet we’ll bring on more lift than we are losing. WTF do I know though.

jetlaggy

The BCF is a JAL 767 we just bought and need to convert..guessing that will go over to Europe.

C2078

What you don’t state and a concerning number is volume, which is down a fair amount. The reason the stock dropped even after good numbers is because the street is worried pricing may not hold up, especially with declining volume. The street predicts revenue growth will most likely stall out or even decline a bit. The sky is most definitely not falling, but the era of prolonged, sustained growth, new net airplanes is probably over. Hiring going forward mostly for attrition.

jetlaggy

Seems like that is the master plan

tnkrdrvr

I would argue the stock price is falling because the price to earnings ratio got seriously optimistic during the pandemic when we had customers over a barrel. We’ve returned to more rational valuations. Volume would be expected to decline some as we limit volume from very large shippers in order to ensure that we don’t have to say no to higher profit shippers (small to medium size businesses), There are things I don’t like about Tome, but I don’t see her strategy as hurting our (pilot) prospects. Growth may slow some, but I’m optimistic a new type that can be produced past 2027 will be introduced in the next year or so. The MD fleet is definitely going to shrink going forward and the 76F will no longer be available new after 2027. It will be an entertaining few years for sure. I’m more interested in our contract gyrations than our stock price, right now.

CardboardCutout

The Pratt MDs are getting parked, the GEs are staying "indefinitely". Source: MD FQS, caveat emptor etc etc.

C2078

Any new orders and/or new aircraft types going forward will be strictly replacements. And I even doubt you will see any replacements at all at the rate they are moving their feet. For the people thinking about coming here, don’t think coming here in the future is going to give you the fast seniority movement that has been the norm since the 2017 hiring explosion. It will be much slower going forward. This is a very good job, but as of today, upgrade and seniority progression is much better at pretty much every other job, including our purple friends.

airplanes

I was looking at minimum 25 years for wide body CA pay at delta. Hopefully I can beat that by a little here.

flyguy23

Interesting take considering the retirement numbers. Also seems you know the future planning better than those in the planning department.