UPS 2Q Earnings Beat Wall Street

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07-28-2022, 06:48 AM

#21

CL300

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jun 2014

Posts: 306

Quote:

Originally Posted by C2078

What you don’t state and a concerning number is volume, which is down a fair amount. The reason the stock dropped even after good numbers is because the street is worried pricing may not hold up, especially with declining volume. The street predicts revenue growth will most likely stall out or even decline a bit. The sky is most definitely not falling, but the era of prolonged, sustained growth, new net airplanes is probably over. Hiring going forward mostly for attrition.

Another data point regarding Wall Street is they haven’t been fans of UPS in years. They can’t buy our Class A stock and that p!sses them off, so they’re always negative about the company. “FedEx spends $2B capex on new airplanes…” and Wall Street celebrates and stock value increases. The same headline about UPS and our stock declines and Street publishes an article about making a poor decision to spend money. That’s just the way it is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by C2078

Any new orders and/or new aircraft types going forward will be strictly replacements. And I even doubt you will see any replacements at all at the rate they are moving their feet. For the people thinking about coming here, don’t think coming here in the future is going to give you the fast seniority movement that has been the norm since the 2017 hiring explosion. It will be much slower going forward. This is a very good job, but as of today, upgrade and seniority progression is much better at pretty much every other job, including our purple friends.

This is pretty doom and gloom. 1994 was the biggest hiring year in the company’s history. 28 years later, the Captain list on my fleet has the top third hired in 1994 or earlier, so I’m anticipating all those guys to be retiring in the next 2-4 years after they get their 30 years longevity and they’ve reached age 60+. I suspect that number is consistent across all fleets, plus or minus a few percent. Our retirements have hardly gotten started yet, the next 4-8 years is going to be huge. Even if our air fleet stalls with growth, the attrition here will require continuous hiring status quo to keep up. The sky certainly isn’t falling.